The Routine Biased Technical Change hypothesis: a critical review

In this report we contribute to the growing debate about how the introduction of technology affects labour demand. First, we provide some background of the main theoretical frameworks (SBTC and RBTC) used by researchers to explain recent changes in the employment distribution. Second, we review the most important empirical studies using the RBTC model. Overall, the prevailing economic literature provides empirical support to the RBTC model: cheaper computerisation progressively replaces human labour in routine tasks, thereby leading to an increase in the relative demand for workers performing non-routine tasks. Third, we show that the RBTC captures quite well the changes in the employment distribution, but we argue that it presents challenges from a conceptual, operational, and empirical point of view. These challenges are discussed in the report. Finally, we argue that the literature has yet to converge to a model that consistently explains how technology affects the labour demand. The RBTC has the merit of providing an explanation of why cheaper computerisation progressively replaces human labour in routine tasks, leading to an increase in the relative demand for workers performing non-routine tasks. However, it is not immune to severe challenges, especially on the empirical ground. Future research should focus on the development of a measurement framework that addresses the challenges raised in this report.JRC.B.4-Human Capital and Employmen

Migrant workers and the digital transformation in the EU

The aim of this report is to provide insights on the implications that structural changes in the labour market related to the Digital Transformation (DT) could have on the integration of EU mobile citizens and third country nationals working in the EU. A comprehensive analysis of the changing nature of the EU labour markets and the effects of DT is provided in the upcoming European Commission’s 2018 Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) review. Building upon these general findings, this report contributes to the debate from a migration-specific point of view by providing evidence on the extent to which migrants are employed in occupations that are potentially prone to automation and therefore may disappear in future. The analysis is based on data drawn from EU LFS 2015-2016 and PIAAC 2012 surveys. The results show that: • Third country nationals tend to be more concentrated in occupations characterized by high routine intensity and thus more prone to automation (e.g. elementary occupations), followed by EU mobile citizens and by natives. • Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals have a higher likelihood of being employed in jobs with high automation potential than nationals, even when socio-demographic characteristics are taken into account. However, the likelihood decreases as educational attainment increases, for all but more so for migrants. • Major differences between EU mobile citizens and third country nationals appear when considering their length of residence. The results show that among EU mobile citizens, recent migrants have higher odds of being employed in a job with high automation potential compared to long-term migrants. On the contrary, in the case of third country nationals, long term migrants report higher odds of working in a job with high automation potential than recent migrants. • Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals are less likely to receive professional training in comparison to nationals. This lower investment in the human capital of migrants can hamper migrants’ opportunities to transition to other jobs once they would lose their jobs due to the DT. • Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals are more likely to be on fixed-term contracts with a shorter horizon compared to natives, with risk of non-renewal of contract in case of economic and technological shocks. • In summary, the vulnerability of migrants in the labour market is furthermore reinforced by the fact that they tend to be concentrated in jobs with high automation potential which, in turn, are associated to lower training and more widespread use of fixed-term contracts.JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc

Disability in newly diagnosed patients with Crohn´s Disease (CD): initial results from the prospective CROCO (Crohn´s Disease Cohort) Study

peer reviewe

Bowel damage and its correlation with the disability index in patients with recently diagnosed Crohn´s Disease

peer reviewedBackground: Crohn’s disease (CD) progression can lead to bowel damage (BD) and disability. However, the longitudinal characterization of BD and disability in early CD patients remains limited. Methods: The Crohn´s Disease Cohort (CROCO) is a multicentre, European cohort study of newly diagnosed CD patients (<12 months following diagnosis) intended to prospectively characterize BD progression and disability. At one year following inclusion (Y1), BD progression was evaluated using the Lémann Index (LI). Magnetic resonance enterography was completed by all patients, with additional endoscopy and/or pelvic MRI based on disease location. Absence of BD was defined as a LI=0, and any presence of bowel damage was indicated by LI>0. Disability was assessed using the validated IBD-disability index (IBD-DI) encompassing various domains. We report the LI at Y1 and its association with significant disease features and with the IBD-DI. Results: Among the 261 included patients, 135 have completed the Y1 visit, with 100 having their LI calculated [57% male, median age at diagnosis of 36 years old (IQR 26-48)]. Most patients (90%) had ileal or ileocolonic involvement, 68% had inflammatory phenotype, and 11% had perianal disease. At inclusion, 7% of patients had undergone surgery (5 intestinal and 2 perianal), and 53% had initiated biological therapy within the first year of disease, primarily anti-TNF in mono or combination therapy. Of those with stricturing (B2) or penetrating (B3) behaviour, 77% and 79%, respectively, were on anti-TNF therapy. Overall, 61% of the patients exhibited some degree of BD (LI>0), yet the median LI at Y1 was low [0.6 (IQR 0-2)]. Univariate analysis revealed an association between the presence of any bowel damage at Y1 and disease behaviour at inclusion (B2 OR 3.33, 95%CI 0.84-13.18 and B3 OR 8.5, 95%CI 1.82, 39.66; p<0.01). Additionally, there was a significant association with anti-TNF therapy (OR 2.88, 95%CI 1.24-6.66, p=0.012). In a multivariate logistic model, only older age at diagnosis appeared protective against any BD (Table 1). Among those evaluated for the LI, 84 completed the IBD-DI at Y1. The median IBD-DI was 17.3 (IQR 10.7-32.6) and 30% experienced moderateto- severe disability (IBD-DI>35). No association was observed between LI and IBD-DI at Y1 (OR 1.09, 95%CI 0.39-3.04, p=0.86) and there were no differences in the median LI across disability categories (p=0.67) (Figure 1). Conclusion: In a cohort of newly diagnosed CD patients, one-third exhibited no bowel damage as per the LI evaluation. For those presenting any degree of damage, the global LI remained low. No association was found with disability assessed by the IBD-DI. These data add to the growing concept that early disease represents a window of opportunity