The aim of this report is to provide insights on the implications that structural changes in the labour market related to the Digital Transformation (DT) could have on the integration of EU mobile citizens and third country nationals working in the EU. A comprehensive analysis of the changing nature of the EU labour markets and the effects of DT is provided in the upcoming European Commission’s 2018 Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) review. Building upon these general findings, this report contributes to the debate from a migration-specific point of view by providing evidence on the extent to which migrants are employed in occupations that are potentially prone to automation and therefore may disappear in future. The analysis is based on data drawn from EU LFS 2015-2016 and PIAAC 2012 surveys.
The results show that:
• Third country nationals tend to be more concentrated in occupations characterized by high routine intensity and thus more prone to automation (e.g. elementary occupations), followed by EU mobile citizens and by natives.
• Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals have a higher likelihood of being employed in jobs with high automation potential than nationals, even when socio-demographic characteristics are taken into account. However, the likelihood decreases as educational attainment increases, for all but more so for migrants.
• Major differences between EU mobile citizens and third country nationals appear when considering their length of residence. The results show that among EU mobile citizens, recent migrants have higher odds of being employed in a job with high automation potential compared to long-term migrants. On the contrary, in the case of third country nationals, long term migrants report higher odds of working in a job with high automation potential than recent migrants.
• Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals are less likely to receive professional training in comparison to nationals. This lower investment in the human capital of migrants can hamper migrants’ opportunities to transition to other jobs once they would lose their jobs due to the DT.
• Both EU mobile citizens and third country nationals are more likely to be on fixed-term contracts with a shorter horizon compared to natives, with risk of non-renewal of contract in case of economic and technological shocks.
• In summary, the vulnerability of migrants in the labour market is furthermore reinforced by the fact that they tend to be concentrated in jobs with high automation potential which, in turn, are associated to lower training and more widespread use of fixed-term contracts.JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc
