On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area

We investigate the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption and investment in the European Union. A certain consensus has aroused that fiscal impulses have expansionary Keynesian effects on the economic activity. However, the existing empirical literature has concentrated on few countries, mostly outside the EU. We check the validity of this result for the EU area, by using annual data and a panel vector auto-regression approach (PVAR). Our results show that increases in public spending lead to positive and significant effects on private consumption and private investment. According to our baseline estimate, a 1% increase in public spending produces a 0.36% on impact rise in private consumption, and a 0.79% impact rise in private investment. The effects are substantial, and die out slowly (faster in the case of private consumption). A further disaggregation between wage and non-wage components reveals different effects. As for the impact on private consumption, our results show that public salaries have a relatively stronger stimulating role, a result which is probably due to the importance of the public sector especially in continental Europe. On the other hand, the positive impact on private investment is mainly due to the non-wage component of government consumption.

Consumption Multipliers of Different Types of Public Spending: a Structural Vector Error Correction Analysis for the UK

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis includes the estimation of a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model, using quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1 – 2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the spending decomposition, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure

Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics

Public finances worldwide have been severely hit by the 2008-2009 Great Recession, stimulating the debate on the consequences of growing fiscal imbalances. Building on Paesani et al. (2006), this paper focuses on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2009 period and studies the effects of fiscal shocks and government debt accumulation on long-term interest rates, both nationally and across borders. Based on a a theoretical framework, the empirical analysis disentangles permanent and transitory components of interest rates dynamics .nding that sustained debt accumulation leads, at least temporarily, to higher long-term interest rates. The is particularly true for the Italian case. There is also evidence of signi.cant cross-country linkages, mainly between Italy and the USA.

Speeding up Simplification of Polygonal Curves using Nested Approximations

We develop a multiresolution approach to the problem of polygonal curve approximation. We show theoretically and experimentally that, if the simplification algorithm A used between any two successive levels of resolution satisfies some conditions, the multiresolution algorithm MR will have a complexity lower than the complexity of A. In particular, we show that if A has a O(N2/K) complexity (the complexity of a reduced search dynamic solution approach), where N and K are respectively the initial and the final number of segments, the complexity of MR is in O(N).We experimentally compare the outcomes of MR with those of the optimal "full search" dynamic programming solution and of classical merge and split approaches. The experimental evaluations confirm the theoretical derivations and show that the proposed approach evaluated on 2D coastal maps either shows a lower complexity or provides polygonal approximations closer to the initial curves.Comment: 12 pages + figure

The Agile Alert System For Gamma-Ray Transients

In recent years, a new generation of space missions offered great opportunities of discovery in high-energy astrophysics. In this article we focus on the scientific operations of the Gamma-Ray Imaging Detector (GRID) onboard the AGILE space mission. The AGILE-GRID, sensitive in the energy range of 30 MeV-30 GeV, has detected many gamma-ray transients of galactic and extragalactic origins. This work presents the AGILE innovative approach to fast gamma-ray transient detection, which is a challenging task and a crucial part of the AGILE scientific program. The goals are to describe: (1) the AGILE Gamma-Ray Alert System, (2) a new algorithm for blind search identification of transients within a short processing time, (3) the AGILE procedure for gamma-ray transient alert management, and (4) the likelihood of ratio tests that are necessary to evaluate the post-trial statistical significance of the results. Special algorithms and an optimized sequence of tasks are necessary to reach our goal. Data are automatically analyzed at every orbital downlink by an alert pipeline operating on different timescales. As proper flux thresholds are exceeded, alerts are automatically generated and sent as SMS messages to cellular telephones, e-mails, and push notifications of an application for smartphones and tablets. These alerts are crosschecked with the results of two pipelines, and a manual analysis is performed. Being a small scientific-class mission, AGILE is characterized by optimization of both scientific analysis and ground-segment resources. The system is capable of generating alerts within two to three hours of a data downlink, an unprecedented reaction time in gamma-ray astrophysics.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

Functional Progression after Dose Suspension or Discontinuation of Nintedanib in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Real-Life Multicentre Study

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial lung disease with rapidly progressive evolution and an unfavorable outcome. Nintedanib (NTD) is an antifibrotic drug that has been shown to be effective in slowing down the progression of the disease. The aim of our study was to examine the efficacy, especially in terms of the functional decline, and the safety profile of NTD in patients treated with the recommended dose and subjects who reduced or suspended the therapy due to the occurrence of adverse reactions. Methods: We conducted a real-life retrospective study based on the experience of NTD use in two centers between 2015 and 2022. Clinical data were evaluated at baseline, at 6 and 12 months after the NTD introduction in the whole population and in subgroups of patients who continued the full-dose treatment, at a reduced dosage, and at the discontinuation of treatment. The following data were recorded: the demographic features, IPF clinical features, NTD therapeutic dosage, tolerability and adverse events, pulmonary function tests (PFTs), the duration of treatment upon discontinuation, and the causes of interruption. Results: There were 54 IPF patients who were included (29.6% females, with a median (IQR) age at baseline of 75 (69.0-79.0) years). Twelve months after the introduction of the NTD therapy, 20 (37%) patients were still taking the full dose, 11 (20.4%) had reduced it to 200 mg daily, and 15 (27.8%) had stopped treatment. Gastrointestinal intolerance predominantly led to the dose reduction (13.0%) and treatment cessation (20.4%). There were two deaths within the initial 6 months (3.7%) and seven (13.0%) within 12 months. Compared to the baseline, the results of the PFTs remained stable at 6 and 12 months for the entire NTD-treated population, except for a significant decline in the DLCO (% predicted value) at both 6 (38.0 ± 17.8 vs. 43.0 ± 26.0; p = 0.041) and 12 months (41.5 ± 15.3 vs. 44.0 ± 26.8; p = 0.048). The patients who continued treatment at the full dose or a reduced dosage showed no significant differences in the FVC and the DLCO at 12 months. Conversely, those discontinuing the NTD exhibited a statistically significant decline in the FVC (% predicted value) at 12 months compared to the baseline (55.0 ± 13.5 vs. 70.0 ± 23.0; p = 0.035). Conclusions: This study highlights the functional decline of the FVC at 12 months after the NTD initiation among patients discontinuing therapy but not among those reducing their dosage

Trends and patterns in the use of computed tomography in children and young adults in Catalonia — results from the EPI-CT study

Background Although there are undeniable diagnostic benefits of CT scanning, its increasing use in paediatric radiology has become a topic of concern regarding patient radioprotection. Objective To assess the rate of CT scanning in Catalonia, Spain, among patients younger than 21 years old at the scan time. Materials and methods This is a sub-study of a larger international cohort study (EPI-CT, the International pediatric CT scan study). Data were retrieved from the radiological information systems (RIS) of eight hospitals in Catalonia since the implementation of digital registration (between 1991 and 2010) until 2013. Results The absolute number of CT scans annually increased 4.5% between 1991 and 2013, which was less accentuated when RIS was implemented in most hospitals. Because the population attending the hospitals also increased, however, the rate of scanned patients changed little (8.3 to 9.4 per 1,000 population). The proportions of patients with more than one CT and more than three CTs showed a 1.51- and 2.7-fold increase, respectively, over the 23 years. Conclusion Gradual increases in numbers of examinations and scanned patients were observed in Catalonia, potentially explained by new CT scanning indications and increases in the availability of scanners, the number of scans per patient and the size of the attended population.Supported in part by the Seventh Framework Programme from the European Community (Grant agreement no: 269912) and the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear

AGILE detection of a strong gamma-ray flare from the blazar 3C 454.3

We report the first blazar detection by the AGILE satellite. AGILE detected 3C 454.3 during a period of strongly enhanced optical emission in July 2007. AGILE observed the source with a dedicated repointing during the period 2007 July 24-30 with its two co-aligned imagers, the Gamma-Ray Imaging Detector and the hard X-ray imager Super-AGILE sensitive in the 30 MeV-50 GeV and 18-60 keV, respectively. Over the entire period, AGILE detected gamma-ray emission from 3C 454.3 at a significance level of 13.8-$\sigma$ with an average flux (E$>$100 MeV) of $(280 \pm 40) \times 10^{-8}$ photons cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The gamma-ray flux appears to be variable towards the end of the observation. No emission was detected by Super-AGILE in the energy range 20-60 keV, with a 3-$\sigma$ upper limit of $2.3 \times 10^{-3}$ photons cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The gamma-ray flux level of 3C 454.3 detected by AGILE is the highest ever detected for this quasar and among the most intense gamma-ray fluxes ever detected from Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars.Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters; 14 pages, 3 EPS Figures, 1 Tabl