Analysis of Rwandan Economic Performance Before and After the 1994 Genocide

This article analyses economic performance of Rwanda between 1973 and 2011. The economic history of Rwanda during this period can be divided into three periods i.e. pre-genocide period (1973-1989), inter-genocide period (1990-1994) and post—genocide period(1995-2011). Real GDP (constant 2000 US$) was used as the dependent variable and as a proxy for economic performance. The explanatory variables used were all expressed as percentages of GDP. They included Domestic Investment (DI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Domestic Savings (DS) and Trade (TR).Chow test based on data for the entire period (1973-2011) rejected the null hypothesis of no structural change/break. After exclusion of observations for the conflict and genocide period, the Chow test  corroborated by the Wald test further showed strong presence of structural break for the pre and post genocide periods. The apparent existence of structural change for the two regimes suggests that the disequilibrium impact of genocide on the Rwandan economy was transitory. This could be explained by the interventions and policies initiated by post genocide leadership to develop, pacify and unite the people of Rwanda. Although structural change was established for the pre and post genocide periods, the change did not emanate from the shift in the intercept, but rather from slope vectors. This means the unobserved qualitative characteristics of the two regimes were similar but that the policies which led to changes in theexplanatory variables impacted differently on performance in the two regimes. Incidentally, it was found out that the bulk of the difference in the models across the two regimes was explained mainly by changes in the intercept, DI and FDI.Keywords: Economic performance, structural change/break, pooled model, fixed effects model, separate regressions, subset of coefficients

Dynamic Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Domestic Investments in Rwanda

This study uses a VAR model to analyse the dynamic relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and domestic investment (DI) in Rwanda for the period 1970 to 2011. Several selection lag criteria chose a maximum lag of one and a bivariate VAR(1) model specification in levels was adopted. Unit root tests show that both GDP and DI series are nonstationary in levels but stationary in first differences, implying that both are integrated of order one I(1). Tests of cointegration established that GDP and DI are CI(1,1), suggesting there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two series. The error correction model indicates that DI adjusts to GDP with a lag whereby 0.2 percent of the discrepancy between long-term and short-term DI is corrected within the year. Granger causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality where GDP causes DI. The bivariate VAR (1) was unstable when estimated at levels, but was stable in first differences. Finally it was found out that GDP almost perfectly predicts DI in the estimated VAR (1) model. The forecasted value of DI in 2011 was 22.6%of GDP while the actual value was 22.7% of GDP. The small discrepancy may be attributed to the appropriate policy measures the Rwandan government and the private sector federation have thus far taken to facilitate investors in their businesses.Keywords: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Domestic Investment (DI); Granger Causality; Cointegration; Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM

Civil society leadership in the struggle for AIDS treatment in South Africa and Uganda

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.This thesis is an attempt to theorise and operationalise empirically the notion of ‘civil society leadership’ in Sub-Saharan Africa. ‘AIDS leadership,’ which is associated with the intergovernmental institutions charged with coordinating the global response to HIV/AIDS, is both under-theorised and highly context-specific. In this study I therefore opt for an inclusive framework that draws on a range of approaches, including the literature on ‘leadership’, institutions, social movements and the ‘network’ perspective on civil society mobilisation. This framework is employed in rich and detailed empirical descriptions (‘thick description’) of civil society mobilisation around AIDS, including contentious AIDS activism, in the key case studies of South Africa and Uganda. South Africa and Uganda are widely considered key examples of poor and good leadership (from national political leaders) respectively, while the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) and The AIDS Support Organisation (TASO) are both seen as highly effective civil society movements. These descriptions emphasise ‘transnational networks of influence’ in which civil society leaders participated (and at times actively constructed) in order to mobilise both symbolic and material resources aimed at exerting influence at the transnational, national and local levels