Metropolitan revenue sources: the Nairobi case

The paper discusses briefly the reasons for budgetary plight which faces most large cities and particularly those in the developing countries. The case of Nairobi, a primary city subject to many of the forces discussed above, is then examined in some detail and a forecast given of its fiscal outlook by 1985. The almost inevitable gap between revenues and expenditures is, in the case of Nairobi, seriously deepened by the recent abolition of the Graduated Personal Tax, a major revenue source of the city. Various methods of coping with the fiscal crisis are then discussed anda substitute tax measure suggested, designed not only to replace the lost GPT revenues but to improve the efficiency of the city's revenue structure. The suggested measure proposes the imposition of a municipal surcharge on the national income tax liability of Nairobi residents. Albeit tentatively, the paper examines the various economic and administrative aspects of the surcharge

Self-similarity of rogue wave generation in gyrotrons: Beyond the Peregrine breather

Within the framework of numerical simulations, we study the gyrotron dynamics under conditions of a significant excess of the operating current over the starting value, when the generation of electromagnetic pulses with anomalously large amplitudes ("rogue waves") are realized. We demonstrate that the relation between peak power and duration of rogue waves is self-similar, but does not reproduce the one characteristic for Peregrine breathers. Remarkably, the discovered self-similar relation corresponds to the exponential nonlinearity of an equivalent Schr\"odinger-like evolution equation. This interpretation can be used as a theoretical basis for explaining the giant amplitudes of gyrotron rogue waves

Inhibitory systems of the spinal cord in the control of interactions of functionally coupled muscles

Studies on muscle functional coupling mechanisms have detected excitatory and inhibitory reflex systems differing in their organization at the spinal level. The classic notions on inhibitory interactions between antagonists at the motoneuronal and premotoneuronal levels are supplemented with data on excitatory interactions. Mutual excitation of synergist muscles is also not the only possible type of interaction: inhibitory relationships are found in the system of synergists under certain physiological conditions. This organization of the motor centers of antagonists and synergists enhances the possibilities for fine coordination of their activity, inhibition and disinhibition mechanisms playing an important role in this system. Data on the inhibitory systems of the spinal cord, in particular, the inhibitory interactions between functionally coupled muscles, are reviewed. © Pleiades Publishing, Inc. 2007

Long-term effects of Internet-supported cognitive behavior therapy

INTRODUCTION: Internet-supported and therapist-guided cognitive behaviour therapy (ICBT) is effective for a range of problems in the short run, but less is known about the long-term effects with follow-ups of two years or longer. AREAS COVERED: This paper reviews studies in which the long-term effects of guided ICBT were investigated. Following literature searches in PubMed and other sources meta-analytic statistics were calculated for 14 studies involving a total of 902 participants, and an average follow-up period of three years. Studies were from Sweden (n=11) or the Netherlands (n=3). Long-term outcome studies were found for panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, depression, mixed anxiety and depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, pathological gambling, stress and chronic fatigue. The duration of the treatments was usually short (8-15 weeks). The pre-to follow-up effect size was Hedge’s g = 1.52, but with a significant heterogeneity. The average symptom improvement across studies was 50%. Treatment seeking in the follow-up period was not documented and few studies mentioned negative effects. EXPERT COMMENTARY: While effects may be overestimated, it is likely that therapist-supported ICBT can have enduring effects. Long-term follow-up data should be collected for more conditions and new technologies like smartphone-delivered treatments

Guided web-based cognitive behavior therapy for perfectionism: Results from two different randomized controlled trials

© 2018 The authors. Background: Perfectionism can become a debilitating condition that may negatively affect functioning in multiple areas, including mental health. Prior research has indicated that internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy can be beneficial, but few studies have included follow-up data. Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the outcomes at follow-up of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy with guided self-help, delivered as 2 separate randomized controlled trials conducted in Sweden and the United Kingdom. Methods: In total, 120 participants randomly assigned to internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy were included in both intention-to-treat and completer analyses: 78 in the Swedish trial and 62 in the UK trial. The primary outcome measure was the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale, Concern over Mistakes subscale (FMPS CM). Secondary outcome measures varied between the trials and consisted of the Clinical Perfectionism Questionnaire (CPQ; both trials), the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9; Swedish trial), the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-7; Swedish trial), and the 21-item Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-21; UK trial). Follow-up occurred after 6 months for the UK trial and after 12 months for the Swedish trial. Results: Analysis of covariance revealed a significant difference between pretreatment and follow-up in both studies. Intention-to-treat within-group Cohen d effect sizes were 1.21 (Swedish trial; 95% CI 0.86-1.54) and 1.24 (UK trial; 95% CI 0.85-1.62) for the FMPS CM. Furthermore, 29 (59%; Swedish trial) and 15 (43%; UK trial) of the participants met the criteria for recovery on the FMPS CM. Improvements were also significant for the CPQ, with effect sizes of 1.32 (Swedish trial; 95% CI 0.97-1.66) and 1.49 (UK trial; 95% CI 1.09-1.88); the PHQ-9, effect size 0.60 (95% CI 0.28-0.92); the GAD-7, effect size 0.67 (95% CI 0.34-0.99); and the DASS-21, effect size 0.50 (95% CI 0.13-0.85). Conclusions: The results are promising for the use of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy as a way of targeting perfectionism, but the findings need to be replicated and include a comparison condition

БАЙЕСОВСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ПОВЫШЕНИЮ ДОСТОВЕРНОСТИ КОНТРОЛЯ КАЧЕСТВА ВОД

Increased variability and, at the same time, a reduced frequency of selective measurements of controlled indicators of natural waters increase the probability of erroneous evaluation of their quality. The task is to increase the reliability of such an assessment by analyzing arrays of new data in conjunction with data accumulated in previous periods. To do this, a Bayesian approach was modified using the uniformity measure of the combined data. It is shown that in the latter case the combined estimate shifts from the Bayesian one to the maximum likelihood estimate from the newly obtained experimental data, thus "forgetting" the obsolete data. At the same time, the 90% confidence interval, in which the true values of the monitored indicators are concluded, is narrowed, which increases the reliability of the probabilistic assessment of water quality. The proposed approach is illustrated by the example of a universal nonparametric method for estimating the probability of the concentration of a certain pollutant in compliance with the requirements as the most common indicator of water quality. The example is brought to specific numerical values, allowing both to compare the classical and modified Bayesian approach, and to give recommendations on the rational use of the latter. The proposed approach can find wide application in the problems of analysis of statistical quality indicators in various subject areas with a shortage of experimental data.Keywords: water quality control, probabilistic estimation, Bayesian approach, mixture of distributions, maximum likelihood function DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/analitika.2018.22.3.001(Russian)O.M. Rozental’1, L.N. Aleksandrovskaya2, A.V. Kirillin21Institute of water problems of RAS, ul. Gubkina, 3, Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation 2Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), Volokolamskoe shosse, 4, Moscow, 125080, Russian FederationПовышенная изменчивость и одновременно – пониженная частота выборочных измерений контролируемых показателей природных вод повышают вероятность ошибочной оценки их качества. В работе решается задача повышения достоверности такой оценки путем анализа массивов новых данных совместно с данными, накопленными в предыдущие периоды. Для этого  была применена модификация байесовского подхода с использованием показателя степени однородности объединяемых данных. Показано, что в последнем случае объединенная оценка смещается по сравнению с байесовской в сторону оценки максимального правдоподобия по вновь полученным экспериментальным данным, «забывая» таким образом устаревшие данные. При этом 90-процентный доверительный интервал, в котором заключены истинные значения контролируемых показателей, сужается, что повышает достоверность вероятностной оценки качества воды. Предложенный подход проиллюстрирован на примере универсального непараметрического метода оценки вероятности соответствия концентрации некоторого загрязняющего вещества предъявляемым требованиям, как наиболее общего показателя качества воды. Пример доведен до конкретных числовых значений, позволяющих как провести сравнение классического и модифицированного байесовского подхода, так и выдать рекомендации по рациональному использованию последнего. Предложенный подход может найти широкое применение в задачах анализа статистических показателей качества в различных предметных областях при дефиците экспериментальных данных.Ключевые слова: контроль качества вод, вероятностная оценка, байесовский подход, смесь распределений, функция максимального правдоподобияDOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/analitika.2018.22.3.00

Astrocytic gap junctional communication is reduced in amyloid-β-treated cultured astrocytes, but not in Alzheimer's disease transgenic mice

Alzheimer's disease is characterized by accumulation of amyloid deposits in brain, progressive cognitive deficits and reduced glucose utilization. Many consequences of the disease are attributed to neuronal dysfunction, but roles of astrocytes in its pathogenesis are not well understood. Astrocytes are extensively coupled via gap junctions, and abnormal trafficking of metabolites and signalling molecules within astrocytic syncytia could alter functional interactions among cells comprising the neurovascular unit. To evaluate the influence of amyloid-β on astrocyte gap junctional communication, cultured astrocytes were treated with monomerized amyloid-β1–40 (1 μmol/l) for intervals ranging from 2 h to 5 days, and the areas labelled by test compounds were determined by impaling a single astrocyte with a micropipette and diffusion of material into coupled cells. Amyloid-β-treated astrocytes had rapid, sustained 50–70% reductions in the area labelled by Lucifer Yellow, anionic Alexa Fluor® dyes and energy-related compounds, 6-NBDG (a fluorescent glucose analogue), NADH and NADPH. Amyloid-β treatment also caused a transient increase in oxidative stress. In striking contrast with these results, spreading of Lucifer Yellow within astrocytic networks in brain slices from three regions of 8.5–14-month-old control and transgenic Alzheimer's model mice was variable, labelling 10–2000 cells; there were no statistically significant differences in the number of dye-labelled cells among the groups or with age. Thus amyloid-induced dysfunction of gap junctional communication in cultured astrocytes does not reflect the maintenance of dye transfer through astrocytic syncytial networks in transgenic mice; the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease is not appropriately represented by the cell culture system

Many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory and mesoscopic anthropic principle

We suggest to combine the Anthropic Principle with Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Theory. Realizing the multiplicity of worlds it provides an opportunity of explanation of some important events which are assumed to be extremely improbable. The Mesoscopic Anthropic Principle suggested here is aimed to explain appearance of such events which are necessary for emergence of Life and Mind. It is complementary to Cosmological Anthropic Principle explaining the fine tuning of fundamental constants. We briefly discuss various possible applications of Mesoscopic Anthropic Principle including the Solar Eclipses and assembling of complex molecules. Besides, we address the problem of Time's Arrow in the framework of Many-World Interpretation. We suggest the recipe for disentangling of quantities defined by fundamental physical laws and by an anthropic selection.Comment: 11 page