Modeling Infectious Diseases : Two Strain Diseases in Metapopulations

Infectious diseases often mutate and are carried between regions. We consider a mathematical model which begins to account for these factors. We assume two disjoint populations that only occasionally comingle, and two strains of a disease present in these populations. Of interest are the equations describing the dynamics of this system, the conditions under which epidemics will occur, and the long term behavior of the system under various initial conditions. We find that in many ways this system is similar to a simpler one-population model. However, we find evidence that there may be conditions under which both disease strains can coexist, other than the expected case where both strains are of equal strength

Meet Me on Death Row: Post-Sentence Victim-Offender Mediation in Capital Cases

Since the 1970\u27s, victim-offender mediation (VOM) has increased in use, most commonly with minor offenses. More recently, VOM has been sparingly applied to serious and violent crimes, including rape, vehicular homicide, attempted homicide, and murder. Death penalty cases have rarely been the focus of restorative justice or VOM, likely because the victim has died and the offender will soon be executed, and these two parties are traditionally the focus of restorative justice. However, while capital cases involve unique concerns and issues, VOM can still be applied in these cases. The process would only require some modification of the focus and application of VOM, such as expanding the notion of the victim to include all other harmed parties. Application of restorative justice theories is needed in capital cases, not to replace punishment, but to work in conjunction with criminal adjudication. Specifically, implementation of VOM programs in capital cases should be promoted as an option after sentencing, assuming careful screening of each case and voluntary participation by all parties. This paper will discuss the background of restorative justice and VOM, and how traditional methods would need to be adapted for application with capital cases. This paper also will address the benefits VOM would provide victims, offenders, and family members. Next, this paper will discuss why VOM would be effective in capital cases. Finally, this paper will address concerns which may arise from VOM\u27s use in capital cases

Multistrain Infections in Metapopulations

Viruses and bacteria responsible for infectious diseases often mutate and are carried between geographical regions. We consider a mathematical model which begins to account for these factors. We assume two disjoint populations that only occasionally co-mingle, and two strains of a disease present in these populations. Of interest are the equations describing the dynamics of this system, the conditions under which epidemics will occur, and the long term behavior of the system under various initial conditions. We find general conditions under which a state of disease-free equilibrium is stable. Additionally, we find existence of a biologically relevant equilibrium where two disease strains of unequal strength coexist in a two-population system and we demonstrate that it is likely unstable

A Qualitative Investigation of Users’ Video Game Information Needs and Behaviors

Video games are popular consumer products as well as research subjects, yet little exists about how players and other stakeholders find video games and what information they need to select, acquire, and play video games. With the aim of better understanding people’s game-related information needs and behaviors, we conducted 56 semi-structured interviews with users who find, play, purchase, collect, and recommend video games. Participants included casual and avid gamers, parents, collectors, industry professionals, librarians, and scholars. From this user data, we derive and discuss key design implications for video game information systems: designing for target user populations, enabling recommendations on appeals, offering multiple automatic organization options, and providing relationship-based, user-generated, subject and visual metadata. We anticipate this work will contribute to building future video game information systems with new and improved access to games

Risk Prediction Models for Kidney Cancer: A Systematic Review

Context Early detection of kidney cancer improves survival; however, low prevalence means that population-wide screening may be inefficient. Stratifying the population into risk categories could allow for the introduction of a screening program tailored to individuals. Objective This review will identify and compare published models that predict the risk of developing kidney cancer in the general population. Evidence Acquisition A search identified primary research reporting or validating models predicting the risk of kidney cancer in Medline and EMBASE. After screening identified studies for inclusion, we extracted data onto a standardised form. The risk models were classified using TRIPOD guidelines and evaluated using the PROBAST assessment tool. Evidence Synthesis The search identified 15,281 articles. Sixty-two satisfied the inclusion criteria; performance measures were provided for 11 models. Some models predicted the risk of prevalent undiagnosed disease and others future incident disease. Six of the models had been validated, two using external populations. The most commonly included risk factors were age, smoking status and BMI. Most of the models had acceptable-to-good discrimination (AUROC>0.7) in development and validation. Many also had high specificity; however, several had low sensitivity. The highest performance was seen for the models using only biomarkers to detect kidney cancer; however, these were developed and validated in small case-control studies. Conclusion We identified a small number of risk models that could be used to stratify the population according to risk of kidney cancer. Most exhibit reasonable discrimination but few have been externally validated in population-based studies. Patient Summary In this review, we looked at mathematical models predicting the likelihood of an individual developing kidney cancer. We found several suitable models, using a range of risk factors (such as age and smoking) to predict individual risk. Most of the models identified require further testing in the general population to confirm their usefulness.NIHR - RM-SR-2017-09-009 CRUK - C55650/A2146

Caso de sucesso : análise da criação do endomarketing no sistema Firjan

Demonstra a crescente importância que o empregado vem conquistando em organizações prestadoras de serviços. Por ser ele o representante da empresa perante o consumidor, percebe-se que tão importante quanto realizar um bom trabalho de marketing externo, é desenvolver o marketing interno (endomarketing). Um empregado satisfeito e motivado produz mais e traz mais dividendos para a empresa. A FIRJAN percebe isso e há 4 anos desenvolve um excelente projeto de endomarketing através da DICIN (Divisão de Integração e Comunicação Interna). Na última pesquisa realizada com os funcionários, 92% dizem estar muito satisfeitos em atuar nesta empresa. É um caso de marketing interno bem aplicado

Direct and Legacy Effects of Long-Term Elevated CO2 on Fine Root Growth and Plant-Insect Interactions

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations alter leaf physiology, with effects that cascade to communities and ecosystems. Yet, responses over cycles of disturbance and recovery are not well known, because most experiments span limited ecological time. We examined the effects of CO2 on root growth, herbivory and arthropod biodiversity in a woodland from 1996 to 2006, and the legacy of CO2 enrichment on these processes during the year after the CO2 treatment ceased. We used minirhizotrons to study root growth, leaf censuses to study herbivory and pitfall traps to determine the effects of elevated CO2 on arthropod biodiversity. Elevated CO2 increased fine root biomass, but decreased foliar nitrogen and herbivory on all plant species. Insect biodiversity was unchanged in elevated CO2. Legacy effects of elevated CO2 disappeared quickly as fine root growth, foliar nitrogen and herbivory levels recovered in the next growing season following the cessation of elevated CO2. Although the effects of elevated CO2 cascade through plants to herbivores, they do not reach other trophic levels, and biodiversity remains unchanged. The legacy of 10yr of elevated CO2 on plant-herbivore interactions in this system appear to be minimal, indicating that the effects of elevated CO2 may not accumulate over cycles of disturbance and recovery

Desafios jurídicos e econômicos da moeda digital

A moeda é um bem de conveniência muito antigo. No entanto, ao longo da história, conveniência e segurança tomaram lados opostos de um dilema, cuja superação ocorreu apenas nos últimos dois séculos com a moeda fiduciária. Não obstante a consolidação da moeda fiduciária, seu sucesso começa a ruir em meados da década de 1970 do século XX com a crise do padrão de Bretton Woods. Neste contexto, emergem os bancos centrais destinando cada vez mais recursos ao exame das possibilidades de introdução da moeda digital. Por outro lado, o surgimento crescente de moedas digitais sem curso forçado justifica a discussão da natureza jurídica deste tipo de bem, desde logo classificando-a como bem, coisa. Circulando até o momento sem supervisão efetiva de qualquer autoridade monetária, por não haver garantia de conversibilidade em outra moeda, inexistindo lastro, como se dá com as moedas de curso forçado, o mercado de criptomoedas pode levar a desastres financeiros de que nem todos se apercebem, pois lhes falta a liquidez típica das moedas de curso forçado. Não obstante esses problemas, a criação de moedas digitais, expressão do exercício da autonomia privada, não viola a norma cogente. Se, do ponto de vista jurídico, a moeda virtual não é ilegal, surgem obstáculos econômicos para caracterizá-la como meio de pagamento pleno. Nessa contraposição entre argumentos econômicos e jurídicos, discute-se na atualidade a possibilidade de criação de eventuais moedas digitais a serem emitidas por bancos centrais substituindo, ainda que parcialmente, as atuais moedas físicas em circulação. Baseado nessas ponderações, este artigo abre espaço, portanto, para reflexões quanto a uma possível disciplina legal para essa hipótese, a emissão de moedas digitais por bancos centrais, atribuindo às mesmas curso forçado

The Effects of Sin Taxes and Advertising Restrictions in a Dynamic Equilibrium

We develop a dynamic equilibrium model of rm competition to study the impact of counterfactual policies, such as taxes and advertising restrictions, on pricing, advertising, consumption and welfare. ;We estimate the model using micro level data on the market for colas. We use consumer level exposure to television commercials to estimate the impact of advertising on product choice, model rms' dynamic competition through their choice of advertising budgets and product prices, and exploit rms' practice of delegating decisions over advertising slots to agencies to link the rich consumer-level advertising variation with rms' strategic choice variables. We show that a sugar- sweetened beverage tax leads to a reduction in advertising and that the incremental eects of implementing advertising restrictions are substantially reduced with a tax in place