CaloMan: Fast generation of calorimeter showers with density estimation on learned manifolds

Precision measurements and new physics searches at the Large Hadron Collider require efficient simulations of particle propagation and interactions within the detectors. The most computationally expensive simulations involve calorimeter showers. Advances in deep generative modelling - particularly in the realm of high-dimensional data - have opened the possibility of generating realistic calorimeter showers orders of magnitude more quickly than physics-based simulation. However, the high-dimensional representation of showers belies the relative simplicity and structure of the underlying physical laws. This phenomenon is yet another example of the manifold hypothesis from machine learning, which states that high-dimensional data is supported on low-dimensional manifolds. We thus propose modelling calorimeter showers first by learning their manifold structure, and then estimating the density of data across this manifold. Learning manifold structure reduces the dimensionality of the data, which enables fast training and generation when compared with competing methods.Comment: Accepted to the Machine Learning and the Physical Sciences Workshop at NeurIPS 202

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

The Union of Manifolds Hypothesis and its Implications for Deep Generative Modelling

Deep learning has had tremendous success at learning low-dimensional representations of high-dimensional data. This success would be impossible if there was no hidden low-dimensional structure in data of interest; this existence is posited by the manifold hypothesis, which states that the data lies on an unknown manifold of low intrinsic dimension. In this paper, we argue that this hypothesis does not properly capture the low-dimensional structure typically present in data. Assuming the data lies on a single manifold implies intrinsic dimension is identical across the entire data space, and does not allow for subregions of this space to have a different number of factors of variation. To address this deficiency, we put forth the union of manifolds hypothesis, which accommodates the existence of non-constant intrinsic dimensions. We empirically verify this hypothesis on commonly-used image datasets, finding that indeed, intrinsic dimension should be allowed to vary. We also show that classes with higher intrinsic dimensions are harder to classify, and how this insight can be used to improve classification accuracy. We then turn our attention to the impact of this hypothesis in the context of deep generative models (DGMs). Most current DGMs struggle to model datasets with several connected components and/or varying intrinsic dimensions. To tackle these shortcomings, we propose clustered DGMs, where we first cluster the data and then train a DGM on each cluster. We show that clustered DGMs can model multiple connected components with different intrinsic dimensions, and empirically outperform their non-clustered counterparts without increasing computational requirements

Association of baseline hematoma and edema volumes with one-year outcome and long-term survival after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: A community-based inception cohort study

Background Hospital-based studies have reported variable associations between outcome after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage and peri-hematomal edema volume. Aims In a community-based study, we aimed to investigate the existence, strength, direction, and independence of associations between intracerebral hemorrhage and peri-hematomal edema volumes on diagnostic brain CT and one-year functional outcome and long-term survival. Methods We identified all adults, resident in Lothian, diagnosed with first-ever, symptomatic spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage between June 2010 and May 2013 in a community-based, prospective inception cohort study. We defined regions of interest manually and used a semi-automated approach to measure intracerebral hemorrhage volume, peri-hematomal edema volume, and the sum of these measurements (total lesion volume) on first diagnostic brain CT performed at ≤3 days after symptom onset. The primary outcome was death or dependence (scores 3–6 on the modified Rankin Scale) at one-year after intracerebral hemorrhage. Results Two hundred ninety-two (85%) of 342 patients (median age 77.5 y, IQR 68–83, 186 (54%) female, median time from onset to CT 6.5 h (IQR 2.9–21.7)) were dead or dependent one year after intracerebral hemorrhage. Peri-hematomal edema and intracerebral hemorrhage volumes were colinear ( R2 = 0.77). In models using both intracerebral hemorrhage and peri-hematomal edema, 10 mL increments in intracerebral hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.72 (95% CI 1.08–2.87); p = 0.029) but not peri-hematomal edema volume (aOR 0.92 (0.63–1.45); p = 0.69) were independently associated with one-year death or dependence. 10 mL increments in total lesion volume were independently associated with one-year death or dependence (aOR 1.24 (1.11–1.42); p = 0.0004). Conclusion Total volume of intracerebral hemorrhage and peri-hematomal edema, and intracerebral hemorrhage volume alone on diagnostic brain CT, undertaken at three days or sooner, are independently associated with death or dependence one-year after intracerebral hemorrhage, but peri-hematomal edema volume is not. Data access statement Anonymized summary data may be requested from the corresponding author. </jats:sec

Effect of Noninvasive Respiratory Strategies on Intubation or Mortality Among Patients With Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure and COVID-19: The RECOVERY-RS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) have been recommended for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19. Uncertainty exists regarding the effectiveness and safety of these noninvasive respiratory strategies. Objective To determine whether either CPAP or HFNO, compared with conventional oxygen therapy, improves clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19-related acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Design, Setting, and Participants A parallel group, adaptive, randomized clinical trial of 1273 hospitalized adults with COVID-19-related acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. The trial was conducted between April 6, 2020, and May 3, 2021, across 48 acute care hospitals in the UK and Jersey. Final follow-up occurred on June 20, 2021. Interventions Adult patients were randomized to receive CPAP (n = 380), HFNO (n = 418), or conventional oxygen therapy (n = 475). Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was a composite of tracheal intubation or mortality within 30 days. Results The trial was stopped prematurely due to declining COVID-19 case numbers in the UK and the end of the funded recruitment period. Of the 1273 randomized patients (mean age, 57.4 [95% CI, 56.7 to 58.1] years; 66% male; 65% White race), primary outcome data were available for 1260. Crossover between interventions occurred in 17.1% of participants (15.3% in the CPAP group, 11.5% in the HFNO group, and 23.6% in the conventional oxygen therapy group). The requirement for tracheal intubation or mortality within 30 days was significantly lower with CPAP (36.3%; 137 of 377 participants) vs conventional oxygen therapy (44.4%; 158 of 356 participants) (absolute difference, -8% [95% CI, -15% to -1%], P = .03), but was not significantly different with HFNO (44.3%; 184 of 415 participants) vs conventional oxygen therapy (45.1%; 166 of 368 participants) (absolute difference, -1% [95% CI, -8% to 6%], P = .83). Adverse events occurred in 34.2% (130/380) of participants in the CPAP group, 20.6% (86/418) in the HFNO group, and 13.9% (66/475) in the conventional oxygen therapy group. Conclusions and Relevance Among patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to COVID-19, an initial strategy of CPAP significantly reduced the risk of tracheal intubation or mortality compared with conventional oxygen therapy, but there was no significant difference between an initial strategy of HFNO compared with conventional oxygen therapy. The study may have been underpowered for the comparison of HFNO vs conventional oxygen therapy, and early study termination and crossover among the groups should be considered when interpreting the findings. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN16912075

Tevatron Combination of Single-Top-Quark Cross Sections and Determination of the Magnitude of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa Matrix Element Vtb\bf V_{tb}

We present the final combination of CDF and D0 measurements of cross sections for single-top-quark production in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The data correspond to total integrated luminosities of up to 9.7 fb$^{−1}$ per experiment. The t-channel cross section is measured to be σ$_t$=2.25$_{-0.31}^{+0.29}$ pb. We also present the combinations of the two-dimensional measurements of the s- vs t-channel cross section. In addition, we give the combination of the s+t channel cross section measurement resulting in σ$_{s+t}$=3.30$_{-0.40}^{+0.52}$ pb, without assuming the standard model value for the ratio σ$_s$/σ$_t$. The resulting value of the magnitude of the top-to-bottom quark coupling is |V$_{tb}$|=1.02$_{-0.05}^{+0.06}$, corresponding to |V$_{tb}$|>0.92 at the 95% C.L