Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011- Working Paper 283

This report summarizes recent trends in large-scale tropical forest clearing identified by FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action). Our analysis includes 27 countries that accounted for 94 percent of clearing during the period 2000–2005. We highlight countries with relatively large changes since 2005, both declines and increases. FORMA produces indicators that track monthly changes in the number of 1-sq.-km. tropical forest parcels that have experienced clearing with high probability. This report and the accompanying spreadsheet databases provide monthly estimates for 27 countries, 280 primary administrative units, and 2,907 secondary administrative units. Countries’ divergent experiences since 2005 have significantly altered their shares of global clearing in some cases. Brazil’s global share fell by 11.2 percentage points from December 2005 to August 2011, while the combined share of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Myanmar increased by 10.8. The diverse patterns revealed by FORMA’s first global survey caution against facile generalizations about forest clearing in the pantropics. During the past five years, the relative scale and pace of clearing have changed across regions, within regions, and within countries. Although the overall trend seems hopeful, it remains to be seen whether the decline in forest clearing will persist as the global economy recovers.

FORMA: Forest Monitoring for Action— Rapid Identification of Pan-tropical Deforestation Using Moderate-Resolution Remotely Sensed Data

Rising concern about carbon emissions from deforestation has led donors to finance UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries), a program that offers direct compensation for forest conservation. Sustainable operation of UN-REDD and other direct-compensation programs will require a transparent, credible, frequently updated system for monitoring deforestation. In this paper, we introduce FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action), a prototype system based on remotely sensed data. We test its accuracy against the best available information on deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia. Our results indicate that publicly available remotely sensed data can support accurate quarterly identification of new deforestation at 1 km spatial resolution. More rapid updates at higher spatial resolution may also be possible. At current resolution, with efficient coding in publicly available software, FORMA should produce global updates on one desktop computer in a few hours. Maps of probable deforestation at 1 km resolution will be accessible with Google Earth and Google Maps, with an open facility for ground-truthing each pixel via photographs and text comments.remote sensing; forest; deforestation; conservation; climate change

A Fresh Look at Global Governance: Exploring Objective Criteria for Representation

The geopolitical world of the 21st century is very different than that of the post– World War II era. In this new world order, what constitutes a system of global governance? We argue that it has to balance representation, which is made credible by the inclusion of key parts of the global community, and effectiveness, which means involving as small a number of actors as possible while having access to the resources—and clout—to turn decisions/intentions into action/results. In this paper, we propose simple, fundamental criteria—based on global shares of GDP and population—around which global governance might be organized. We analyze the role that these criteria would assign to different countries and compare them with some of the key components of the system of governance currently in place—the Bretton Woods institutions and the United Nations. We also examine the implications of our analysis for membership in the G-20 and the OECD. We find major disparities, which suggest the need for fundamental changes in sharp contrast to the incremental changes that are currently being considered. Overall, our analysis points to the need for a more comprehensive approach, and for much more than incremental solutions.global governance, Bretton Woods, United Nations, G-20, OECD

Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Indonesia- Working Paper 280

This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demand for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, and local rainfall and terrain slope. Our econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing. We find significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall, and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, and the absence of impact for protected-area status is particularly notable. Our results strongly support the model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia’s financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful force.

Towards the Interpretation of Sound Measurements from Smartphones Collected with Mobile Crowdsensing in the Healthcare Domain: An Experiment with Android Devices

The ubiquity of mobile devices fosters the combined use of ecological momentary assessments (EMA) and mobile crowdsensing (MCS) in the field of healthcare. This combination not only allows researchers to collect ecologically valid data, but also to use smartphone sensors to capture the context in which these data are collected. The TrackYourTinnitus (TYT) platform uses EMA to track users’ individual subjective tinnitus perception and MCS to capture an objective environmental sound level while the EMA questionnaire is filled in. However, the sound level data cannot be used directly among the different smartphones used by TYT users, since uncalibrated raw values are stored. This work describes an approach towards making these values comparable. In the described setting, the evaluation of sensor measurements from different smartphone users becomes increasingly prevalent. Therefore, the shown approach can be also considered as a more general solution as it not only shows how it helped to interpret TYT sound level data, but may also stimulate other researchers, especially those who need to interpret sensor data in a similar setting. Altogether, the approach will show that measuring sound levels with mobile devices is possible in healthcare scenarios, but there are many challenges to ensuring that the measured values are interpretable

From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing- Working Paper 282

In this paper, we develop and illustrate a prototype incentive system for promoting rapid reduction of forest clearing in tropical countries. Our proposed Tropical Forest Protection Fund (TFPF) is a cash-on-delivery system that rewards independently monitored performance without formal contracts. The system responds to forest tenure problems in many countries by dividing incentive payments between national governments, which command the greatest number of instruments that affect forest clearing, and indigenous communities, which often have tenure rights in forested lands. The TFPF incorporates both monetary and reputational incentives, which are calculated quarterly. The monetary incentives are unconditional cash transfers based on measured performance, while the reputational incentives are publicly disclosed, color-coded performance ratings for each country. The incentives include rewards for: (1) exceeding long-run expectations, given a country’s forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Drawing on monthly forest clearing indicators from the new FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action) database, we illustrate a prototype TFPF for eight East Asian countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. A system with identical design principles could be implemented by single or multiple donors for individual or multiple forest proprietors within one or more countries, as well as national or local governments in individual countries, tropical regions, or the global pan-tropics. Our results demonstrate the importance of financial flexibility in the design of the proposed TFPF. Its incentives are calculated to induce a massive, rapid reduction of tropical forest clearing. If that occurs, a TFPF for East Asia will need standby authority for disbursements that may total $10–14 billion annually for the next two decades. This financial burden will not persist, however, because the TFPF is designed to self-liquidate once all recipient countries have achieved clearly specified benchmarks. We estimate that the TFPF can be closed by 2070, with its major financial responsibility discharged by 2040.

Literature-based requirements analysis review of persuasive systems design for mental health applications

Mental health problems are becoming more common while access to treatment is often not available to everyone who needs help. Recent advances in information technology, the wide availability of the internet, the emergence of smartphones and their common usage worldwide raise hope for more treatment options for mental health disorders. Many mobile phone apps that claim to assist in treating a variety of mental health disorders are already available, and the number of such apps continues to increase. The availability of such apps raises many questions about their effectiveness, suitable treatment methods, possibilities for use alongside traditional treatment methods, possible risks and other uncertainties. Beside mobile apps, internet-based apps are also being introduced with similar sets of challenges and ambiguities. One area of research that is gaining a lot of attention recently is Persuasive System Design and Behavior Change. Persuasive System Design is considered one solution that has the potential to help solve the challenges of lack of user motivation and adherence when utilizing mental health applications. The goal of this paper is to perform a literature review, in order to determine the most essential requirements for a persuasively designed mental health application. As part of this process, the challenges and requests of the end-user will be taken into account in order to make recommendations for the future design of such applications

eSano – An eHealth Platform for Internet- and Mobile-based Interventions

The prevention and treatment of mental disorders and chronic somatic diseases is a core challenge for health care systems of the 21th century. Mental- and behavioral health interventions provide the means for lowering the public health burden. However, structural deficits, reluctance to use existing services, perceived stigma and further personal and environmental reasons restrict the uptake of these evidence-based approaches. Internet- and mobile-based interventions (IMIs) might overcome some of the limitations of on-site interventions by providing an anonymous, scalable, time- and location-independent, yet evidence-based approach. In order to implement digital mental and behavioral health concepts across the life-span into practice, a technical solution to support the design, creation, and execution of IMIs is needed. However, there are various conceptual, technical as well as legal challenges to implementing a corresponding software solution in the healthcare domain. Therefore, the work at hand (1) identifies these challenges and derives a number of respective requirements, (2) introduces the eHealth platform eSano, a software project developed by an interdisciplinary team of computer scientists, psychologists, therapists, and other domain experts, with the aim to serve as a flexible basis for mental and behavioral research and health care, and (3) provides technical insights into the developed platform and its approach to address the aforementioned requirements

First clinical experience of high-power ablation of atrial fibrillation with a novel contact force-sensing gold-tip catheter

Background: Contact force (CF)-sensing catheters are commonly used in the field of radiofrequency (RF) ablation to treat atrial fibrillation (AF). Increasing ablation power (e.g., 50 W) has been suggested as a method to reduce procedure times whilst creating safe and lasting lesions. Methods: We report the first clinical evidence of a 50 W point-by-point RF ablation in 25 consecutive patients with symptomatic AF using a novel CF-sensing catheter with a gold tip (AlCath Force, BIOTRONIK). We collected and analyzed procedural and ablation parameters. The safety and efficacy of the catheter were evaluated. Results: Altogether, 985 RF lesions in 25 patients were created with a mean number of 39.4 +/- 16.3 lesions per patient. The total skin-to-skin procedure time was 116.1 +/- 35.1 min, and the mean total area dose product was 10.9 +/- 5.1 Gy*cm2. The mean RF time per procedure was 13.2 +/- 6.6 min. The mean RF time per lesion was 20.2 +/- 8.4 s. The mean CF was 15.7 +/- 7.6 g. We observed a mean force time integral of 274.7 +/- 11.1 gs (range: 53 to 496 gs). Acute procedural success, defined as entrance and exit block in all pulmonary veins, could be obtained in all cases. No procedure- or device-related serious adverse events were observed. No audible steam pops occurred. Optical inspection of the catheter after the procedure showed neither charring nor clotting. Conclusions: We provide the first evidence for the safety and efficacy of 50 W ablation using the AlCath Force gold-tip catheter. These data must be supported by a larger multi-center study

Combining Mobile Crowdsensing and Ecological Momentary Assessments in the Healthcare Domain

The increasing prevalence of smart mobile devices (e.g., smartphones) enables the combined use of mobile crowdsensing (MCS) and ecological momentary assessments (EMA) in the healthcare domain. By correlating qualitative longitudinal and ecologically valid EMA assessment data sets with sensor measurements in mobile apps, new valuable insights about patients (e.g., humans who suffer from chronic diseases) can be gained. However, there are numerous conceptual, architectural and technical, as well as legal challenges when implementing a respective software solution. Therefore, the work at hand (1) identifies these challenges, (2) derives respective recommendations, and (3) proposes a reference architecture for a MCS-EMA-platform addressing the defined recommendations. The required insights to propose the reference architecture were gained in several large-scale mHealth crowdsensing studies running for many years and different healthcare questions. To mention only two examples, we are running crowdsensing studies on questions for the tinnitus chronic disorder or psychological stress. We consider the proposed reference architecture and the identified challenges and recommendations as a contribution in two respects. First, they enable other researchers to align our practical studies with a baseline setting that can satisfy the variously revealed insights. Second, they are a proper basis to better compare data that was gathered using MCS and EMA. In addition, the combined use of MCS and EMA increasingly requires suitable architectures and associated digital solutions for the healthcare domain