Analysis of time-to-event for observational studies: Guidance to the use of intensity models

This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event definition and censoring are given. Hazard models are introduced, with special emphasis on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We provide check lists that may be useful both when fitting the model and assessing its goodness of fit and when interpreting the results. Special attention is paid to how to avoid problems with immortal time bias by introducing time-dependent covariates. We discuss prediction based on hazard models and difficulties when attempting to draw proper causal conclusions from such models. Finally, we present a series of examples where the methods and check lists are exemplified. Computational details and implementation using the freely available R software are documented in Supplementary Material. The paper was prepared as part of the STRATOS initiative.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures. For associated Supplementary material, see http://publicifsv.sund.ku.dk/~pka/STRATOSTG8

SpeCond: a method to detect condition-specific gene expression

Transcriptomic studies routinely measure expression levels across numerous conditions. These datasets allow identification of genes that are specifically expressed in a small number of conditions. However, there are currently no statistically robust methods for identifying such genes. Here we present SpeCond, a method to detect condition-specific genes that outperforms alternative approaches. We apply the method to a dataset of 32 human tissues to determine 2,673 specifically expressed genes. An implementation of SpeCond is freely available as a Bioconductor package at http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/SpeCond.html

How Filaments are Woven into the Cosmic Web

Observations indicate galaxies are distributed in a filament-dominated web-like structure. Numerical experiments at high and low redshift of viable structure formation theories also show filament-dominance. We present a simple quantitative explanation of why this is so, showing that the final-state web is actually present in embryonic form in the overdensity pattern of the initial fluctuations, with nonlinear dynamics just sharpening the image. The web is largely defined by the position and primordial tidal fields of rare events in the medium, with the strongest filaments between nearby clusters whose tidal tensors are nearly aligned. Applications of the cosmic web theory to observations include probing cluster-cluster bridges by weak gravitational lensing, X-rays, and the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and probing high redshift galaxy-galaxy bridges by low column density Lyman alpha absorption lines.Comment: 9 pages, gzipped uuencoded postscript file, 4 figures in separate files. The text + figures are also available from anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.cita.utoronto.ca/ftp/cita/bond/bkp_natur

Use of Study Techniques from an Intellectual Intervention Program

The research relates the work skills through study habits, which accounts for the role of analyzing how they relate and communicate space from the study techniques in ninth grade students of a rural educational institution, in order to establish a process of improvement in the didactics of teaching, focused on educational quality parameters, this was done through a study with quantitative approach, with descriptive and correlational scope, non-experimental design of transectional or cross-sectional type, the sample consisted of 36 students between 13 and 16 years of age. Two instruments were applied, the first was the Primary Mental Aptitudes Questionnaire "PMA" (Thurstone & Thurstone, 2007) and the second was the Habits and Study Techniques Questionnaire "CHTE" (Álvarez & Fernández, 2015), in addition to the information of school academic performance of the first period of the 2019 school cycle, the values delivered strengthen the role of reasoning with the factors of verbal comprehension, spatial conception and numerical calculation, as well as the relationship between academic performance and spatial conception, and the relationships between different aspects of study habits

Development of Biscuits Based on Quinoa, Oats and Honey Gluten-Free

The present study focused on the development of gluten-free biscuits, using oats, honey and quinoa as the main raw material, the same ones that were part of the recipes in the varieties of sucreé, briseé and sablée, through the experimental method, with different control treatments to be able to identify the best way to apply the formulation,  being that they could be developed in a quite interesting way thanks to the versatility of powdered oats and quinoa flour, given that their nutritional value is absent of gluten and for the characteristics of the biscuit. However, it is worth mentioning that avenin is characterized by being a potentially harmful protein for celiac patients, but by sharing content with quinoa flour, it reduces the risk of intoxication by this product, thus generating an alternative diet for people gluten intolerant

Gestational age at delivery and special educational need: retrospective cohort study of 407,503 schoolchildren

<STRONG>Background</STRONG> Previous studies have demonstrated an association between preterm delivery and increased risk of special educational need (SEN). The aim of our study was to examine the risk of SEN across the full range of gestation. <STRONG>Methods and Findings</STRONG> We conducted a population-based, retrospective study by linking school census data on the 407,503 eligible school-aged children resident in 19 Scottish Local Authority areas (total population 3.8 million) to their routine birth data. SEN was recorded in 17,784 (4.9%) children; 1,565 (8.4%) of those born preterm and 16,219 (4.7%) of those born at term. The risk of SEN increased across the whole range of gestation from 40 to 24 wk: 37–39 wk adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.20; 33–36 wk adjusted OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.43–1.63; 28–32 wk adjusted OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.38–2.97; 24–27 wk adjusted OR 6.92, 95% CI 5.58–8.58. There was no interaction between elective versus spontaneous delivery. Overall, gestation at delivery accounted for 10% of the adjusted population attributable fraction of SEN. Because of their high frequency, early term deliveries (37–39 wk) accounted for 5.5% of cases of SEN compared with preterm deliveries (<37 wk), which accounted for only 3.6% of cases. <STRONG>Conclusions</STRONG> Gestation at delivery had a strong, dose-dependent relationship with SEN that was apparent across the whole range of gestation. Because early term delivery is more common than preterm delivery, the former accounts for a higher percentage of SEN cases. Our findings have important implications for clinical practice in relation to the timing of elective delivery

Using public datasets to understand the psychological correlates of smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity: A country-level analysis

In the present research, we investigate whether cultural value orientations (CVOs) and aggregate personality traits (Big-5) predict actual levels of alcohol consumption, smoking, and obesity across 50 countries using averages derived from millions of data points. Aggregate traits explained variance above and beyond CVOs in obesity (particularly neuroticism and extraversion), while CVOs explained variance beyond aggregate traits in alcohol consumption (particularly harmony and hierarchy). Smoking did not appear to be strongly linked to aggregated traits or CVOs. We conclude that an understanding of the cultural correlates of risky health behaviours may help inform important policies and interventions for meeting international sustainable development goals

Are people who participate in cultural activities more satisfied with life?

The influence of various aspects of life on wellbeing has been extensively researched. However, despite little empirical evidence, participation in leisure activities has been assumed to increase subjective wellbeing. Leisure is important because it is more under personal control than other sources of life satisfaction. This study asked whether people who participate in cultural leisure activities have higher life satisfaction than people who do not, if different types of leisure have the same influence on life satisfaction and if satisfaction is dependent on the frequency of participation or the number of activities undertaken. It used data from UKHLS Survey to establish associations between type, number and frequency of participation in leisure activities and life satisfaction. Results showed an independent and positive association of participation in sport, heritage and active-creative leisure activities and life satisfaction but not for participation in popular entertainment, theatre hobbies and museum/galleries. The association of reading hobbies and sedentary-creative activities and life satisfaction was negative. High life satisfaction was associated with engaging in a number of different activities rather than the frequency of participation in each of them. The results have implications for policy makers and leisure services providers, in particular those associated with heritage recreation. Subjective wellbeing measures, such as life satisfaction, and not economic measures alone should be considered in the evaluation of services. The promotion of leisure activities which are active and promote social interaction should be considered in programmes aimed at improving the quality of life

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon