Exchange Rate Regimes, Location, and Specialization

This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms' location choices and on countries' specialization patterns. In a two-country, twodifferentiated-goods monetary model, uncertainty arises after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper shows that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, which indicates that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but also depends on the exchange rate regime. The creation of a currency area endogenously increases the desirability of such an area by reducing the asymmetry of shocks across member countries. The results also shed light on the effects of exchange rate variability on trade. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Productivity, networks, and export performance: evidence from a cross-country fi rm dataset

This paper uses a newly assembled multi-country multi-industry fi…rm-level dataset to test the effect of productivity and networking on the export probability of …firms. Results are in line with the new-new trade theory and with the literature on the information value of networks. Firms are more likely to export if they are more productive, larger, and if they bene…fit from foreign networks (ownership and …financial linkages), domestic networks (chamber of commerce, links to regulation), and communication networks (E-mail, internet). Firms bear a lower probability of exporting if they have state or labor networks. Overall, …firms with better network connections by one standard deviation enjoy a 15% higher probability of exporting.new-new trade theory; export probability

Exchange rate regimes and location

This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes on location choices of firms and on the degree of specialization of countries. In a two-country two-differentiated-good monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The exchange rate performs then an adjustment role for firms located in the country relatively specialized in the good they produce, but it constitutes a factor of disturbance for the others. As firms choose ex-ante the location that offers the higher expected profits for their industry, we find that countries are more specialized under flexible exchange rates than under fixed rates. One important implication is that the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime increases the desirability of such a currency area, as it induces sectoral dispersion of production and consequently reduces the degree of asymmetry of shocks

Unemployment and productivity in the long run: The role of macroeconomic volatility

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on asymmetric real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U.S. episodes which a linear model based only on long-run productivity growth cannot fully explain. These are the decline in long-run unemployment over the 1980s and its rise during the late 2000s.unemployment, productivity growth, volatility

Unemployment and productivity in long-run: the role of macroeconomic volatility

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on downward real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U.S. episodes which a linear model based only on long-run productivity growth cannot fully explain. These are the decline in long-run unemployment over the 1980s and its rise during the late 2000s.Unemployment, Productivity growth, Volatility

Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth?

Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000) argue that the relation between openness and growth is still an open question. One of the main problems in the assessment of the effect is the endogeneity of the relation. In order to address this issue, this paper applies the identification through heteroskedasticity methodology to estimate the effect of openness on growth while properly controlling for the effect of growth on openness. The results suggest that openness would have a positive effect on growth, although small. This result stands, despite the equally robust effect from growth to openness.

Productivity, networks, and export performance: evidence from a cross-country firm dataset

This paper uses a newly assembled multi-country multi-industry firm-level dataset to test the effect of productivity and networking on the export probability of firms. Results are in line with the new-new trade theory and with the literature on the information value of networks. Firms are more likely to export if they are more productive, larger, and if they benefit from foreign networks (ownership and financial linkages), domestic networks (chamber of commerce, links to regulation), and communication networks (E-mail, internet). Firms bear a lower probability of exporting if they have state or labor networks. Overall, firms with better network connections by one standard deviation enjoy a 15% higher probability of exporting

The Inflation-Output Trade-off with Downward Wage Rigidities

In the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities, wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices, when facing both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We derive a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve which relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outward and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility.

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off at Low Inflation

Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization policies can play an important role in shaping the trade-off. Third, nominal wages tend to be endogenously rigid also upward, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation.