An Investigation Into the Effects of Various Transport Policies on the Levels of Motorised Traffic in Great Britain in 2006

This Working Paper presents the results of tests of various transport policies which could potentially have a major impact on private car travel and hence gain environmental benefits at a national level. The forecasting methodology was to take OPCS population forecasts for year 2006 in 28 age/sex/area type categories, predict the car available percentage of person in each category in 2006, and then predict trip mileage growth (by three mode types for the 28 categories each subdivided into car available and car non-availahle. For the latter two predications, NTS data for 1985/6 and 1991/3 were compared and projected forward with various adjustments. The effect of individual transport policies on trip rates for individual cells was determined from results derived from other studies, coupled with a consideration of economic theory. Of the tests considered, only the tripling of fuel prices for private mode transport was ahle to hold private mode mileage in 2006 at ahout its 1992 level

The origins and development of the Journal of Horticultural Science and Biotechnology (JHSB) 1919-2019

As an introduction to the final issue of the Journal’s Centenary Volume, this article outlines the history and development of the Journal over its first hundred years. Further detail of the research papers published in the Journal can be found in the Centenary Reviews published in issues 5 and 6 of this volume (Dixon, 2019; Foster, 2019)

Spectrum of density fluctuations in Brans-Dicke chaotic inflation

In the context of Brans--Dicke theories, eternal inflation is described in such a way that the evolution of the inflaton field is determined by the value of the Planck mass in different regions of the universe. The Planck mass is given by the values of the Brans--Dicke field, which is coupled to the scalar curvature in the Lagrangian. We first calculate the joint probability distributions of the inflaton and Brans--Dicke fields, in order to compute the 3--volume ratios of homogeneous regions with arbitrary values of the fields still undergoing inflation with respect to thermalized regions. From these volume ratios one is able to extract information on the values of the fields measured by a typical observer for a given potential and, in particular, the typical value of the Planck mass at the end of inflation. In this paper, we investigate volume ratios using a regularization procedure suggested by Vilenkin, and the results are applied to powerlaw and double--well potentials. The spectrum of density fluctuations is calculated for generic potentials, and we discuss the likelihood of various scenarios that could tell us whether our region of the universe is typical or untypical depending on very general bounds on the evolution of the Brans--Dicke field.Comment: 26 pages, uuencoded compressed postscript file, two figures include

Measures for a Transdimensional Multiverse

The multiverse/landscape paradigm that has emerged from eternal inflation and string theory, describes a large-scale multiverse populated by "pocket universes" which come in a huge variety of different types, including different dimensionalities. In order to make predictions in the multiverse, we need a probability measure. In $(3+1)d$ landscapes, the scale factor cutoff measure has been previously shown to have a number of attractive properties. Here we consider possible generalizations of this measure to a transdimensional multiverse. We find that a straightforward extension of scale factor cutoff to the transdimensional case gives a measure that strongly disfavors large amounts of slow-roll inflation and predicts low values for the density parameter $\Omega$, in conflict with observations. A suitable generalization, which retains all the good properties of the original measure, is the "volume factor" cutoff, which regularizes the infinite spacetime volume using cutoff surfaces of constant volume expansion factor.Comment: 30 pages, 1 figure Minor revisions, reference adde

Conditions for spontaneous homogenization of the Universe

The present-day Universe appears to be homogeneous on very large scales. Yet when the casual structure of the early Universe is considered, it becomes apparent that the early Universe must have been highly inhomogeneous. The current paradigm attempts to answer this problem by postulating the inflation mechanism However, inflation in order to start requires a homogeneous patch of at least the horizon size. This paper examines if dynamical processes of the early Universe could lead to homogenization. In the past similar studies seem to imply that the set of initial conditions that leads to homogenization is of measure zero. This essay proves contrary: a set of initial conditions for spontaneous homogenization of cosmological models can form a set of non-zero measure.Comment: 7 pages. Fifth Award in the 2010 Gravity Research Foundation essay competitio

Supersymmetric Unification Without Low Energy Supersymmetry And Signatures for Fine-Tuning at the LHC

The cosmological constant problem is a failure of naturalness and suggests that a fine-tuning mechanism is at work, which may also address the hierarchy problem. An example -- supported by Weinberg's successful prediction of the cosmological constant -- is the potentially vast landscape of vacua in string theory, where the existence of galaxies and atoms is promoted to a vacuum selection criterion. Then, low energy SUSY becomes unnecessary, and supersymmetry -- if present in the fundamental theory -- can be broken near the unification scale. All the scalars of the supersymmetric standard model become ultraheavy, except for a single finely tuned Higgs. Yet, the fermions of the supersymmetric standard model can remain light, protected by chiral symmetry, and account for the successful unification of gauge couplings. This framework removes all the difficulties of the SSM: the absence of a light Higgs and sparticles, dimension five proton decay, SUSY flavor and CP problems, and the cosmological gravitino and moduli problems. High-scale SUSY breaking raises the mass of the light Higgs to about 120-150 GeV. The gluino is strikingly long lived, and a measurement of its lifetime can determine the ultraheavy scalar mass scale. Measuring the four Yukawa couplings of the Higgs to the gauginos and higgsinos precisely tests for high-scale SUSY. These ideas, if confirmed, will demonstrate that supersymmetry is present but irrelevant for the hierarchy problem -- just as it has been irrelevant for the cosmological constant problem -- strongly suggesting the existence of a fine-tuning mechanism in nature.Comment: Typos and equations fixed, references adde

The effect of aspirin and eicosapentaenoic acid on urinary biomarkers of prostaglandin E2 synthesis and platelet activation in participants of the seAFOod polyp prevention trial

Urinary prostaglandin (PG) E metabolite (PGE-M) and 11-dehydro (d)-thromboxane (TX) B2 are biomarkers of cyclooxygenase-dependent prostanoid synthesis. We investigated (1) the effect of aspirin 300 mg daily and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) 2000 mg daily, alone and in combination, on urinary biomarker levels and, (2) whether urinary biomarker levels predicted colorectal polyp risk, during participation in the seAFOod polyp prevention trial. Urinary PGE-M and 11-d-TXB2 were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The relationship between urinary biomarker levels and colorectal polyp outcomes was investigated using negative binomial (polyp number) and logistic (% with one or more polyps) regression models. Despite wide temporal variability in PGE-M and 11-d-TXB2 levels within individuals, both aspirin and, to a lesser extent, EPA decreased levels of both biomarkers (74% [P ≤ .001] and 8% [P ≤ .05] reduction in median 11-d-TXB2 values, respectively). In the placebo group, a high (quartile [Q] 2-4) baseline 11-d-TXB2 level predicted increased polyp number (incidence rate ratio [IRR] [95% CI] 2.26 [1.11,4.58]) and risk (odds ratio [95% CI] 3.56 [1.09,11.63]). A low (Q1) on-treatment 11-d-TXB2 level predicted reduced colorectal polyp number compared to placebo (IRR 0.34 [0.12,0.93] for combination aspirin and EPA treatment) compared to high on-treatment 11-d-TXB2 values (0.61 [0.34,1.11]). Aspirin and EPA both inhibit PGE-M and 11-d-TXB2 synthesis in keeping with shared in vivo cyclooxygenase inhibition. Colorectal polyp risk and treatment response prediction by 11-d-TXB2 is consistent with a role for platelet activation during early colorectal carcinogenesis. The use of urinary 11-d-TXB2 measurement for a precision approach to colorectal cancer risk prediction and chemoprevention requires prospective evaluation

Plasma and rectal mucosal oxylipin levels during aspirin and eicosapentaenoic acid treatment in the seAFOod polyp prevention trial

Background Aspirin and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) have colorectal polyp prevention activity, alone and in combination. This study measured levels of plasma and rectal mucosal oxylipins in participants of the seAFOod 2 × 2 factorial, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, who received aspirin 300 mg daily and EPA 2000 mg free fatty acid, alone and in combination, for 12 months. Methods Resolvin (Rv) E1, 15-epi-lipoxin (LX) A4 and respective precursors 18-HEPE and 15-HETE (with chiral separation) were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in plasma taken at baseline, 6 months and 12 months, as well as rectal mucosa obtained at trial exit colonoscopy at 12 months, in 401 trial participants. Results Despite detection of S- and R- enantiomers of 18-HEPE and 15-HETE in ng/ml concentrations, RvE1 or 15‑epi-LXA4 were not detected above a limit of detection of 20 pg/ml in plasma or rectal mucosa, even in individuals randomised to both aspirin and EPA. We have confirmed in a large clinical trial cohort that prolonged (12 months) treatment with EPA is associated with increased plasma 18-HEPE concentrations (median [inter-quartile range] total 18-HEPE 0.51 [0.21–1.95] ng/ml at baseline versus 0.95 [0.46–4.06] ng/ml at 6 months [P<0.0001] in those randomised to EPA alone), which correlate strongly with respective rectal mucosal 18-HEPE levels (r = 0.82; P<0.001), but which do not predict polyp prevention efficacy by EPA or aspirin. Conclusion Analysis of seAFOod trial plasma and rectal mucosal samples has not provided evidence of synthesis of the EPA-derived specialised pro-resolving mediator RvE1 or aspirin-trigged lipoxin 15‑epi-LXA4. We cannot rule out degradation of individual oxylipins during sample collection and storage but readily measurable precursor oxylipins argues against widespread degradation