Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations

The effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on various macroeconomic equations are examined in this paper. The equations include consumption, money demand, housing investment, and labor force participation equations. Seven age groups are analyzed: 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40- 54, 55-64, and 65+. There seems to be enough variance in the age distribution data to allow reasonably precise estimates of the effects of a number of age categories on the macro variables. The results show that, other things being equal, age groups 30-39 and 40-54 consume less than average, invest less in housing than average, and demand more money than average. Age group 55-64 consumes more and demands more money. If these estimates are right, they imply, other things being equal, that consumption and housing investment will be negatively affected in the future as more and more baby boomers enter the 30-54 age group. The demand for money will be positively affected. If, as Easterlin argues, the average wage that an age group faces is negatively affected by the percent of the population in that group, then the labor force participation rate of a group should depend on the relative size of the group. If the substitution effect dominates, people in a large group should work less than average, and if the income effect dominates, they should work more than average. The results indicate that the substitution effect dominates for women 25-54 and that the income effect dominates for men 25-54.

Better Off Working? Work, Poverty And Benefit Cycling

A study of the work experiences of a group of low-skilled workers over five years. Concern has been growing about the extent to which paid work is an effective route out of poverty and the extent of churning between work and benefits that can result in recurrent poverty. Using both interview and survey data, this report examines work pathways, experiences of retention and progression, and feelings of financial strain among a group of lone parents and former long-term unemployed people who have entered work. The report covers: • people’s perceptions of poverty and financial strain and how this relates to their movements in and out of work; • people’s trajectories in work and the factors facilitating or constraining work retention; • the relationship between work trajectories and moving into ‘better work’; • what enables or constrains people in their attempts to progress in work; and • tensions and trade-offs between retention and progression

Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) demonstration: delivery, take-up, and outcomes of in-work training support for lone parents (Research report No 727)

"This report focuses on the delivery, take-up and outcomes of the in-work training support provided through the Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) demonstration... The ERA demonstration was designed to test the effectiveness of a programme to improve the labour market prospects of low-paid workers and long-term unemployed people." - page 4

Does performance-related pay work in the public sector?

What do we know about whether performance-related pay schemes work to improve performance in the public sector? Beth Foley, Tiffany Tsang and Kathryn Ray review the evidence and urge caution, finding that such schemes are far more complex than they first appear, the evidence is frequently inconsistent, and that much depends on the design and context of the scheme

Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations

The effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on various macroeconomic equations are examined in this paper. The equations include consumption, money demand, housing investment, and labor force participation equations. Seven groups are analyzed: 16-19, 20-24, 30-39, 40-54, 55-64, and 65+. There seems to be enough variance in the age distribution data to allow reasonably precise estimates of the effects of a number of age categories on the macro variables. The results show that, other things being equal, age groups 30-39 and 40-54 consume less than average, invest less in housing than average, and demand more money than average. Age group 55-64 consumes more and demands more money. If these estimates are right, they imply, other things being equal, that consumption and housing investment will be negatively affected in the future as more and more baby boomers enter the 30-54 age group. The demand for money will be positively affected. If, as Easterlin argues, the average wage that an age group faces is negatively affected by the percent of the population in that group, then the labor force participation rate of a group should depend on the relative size of the group. If the substitution effect dominates, people in a large group should work less than average, and if the income effect dominates, they should work more than average. The results indicate that the substitution effect dominates for women 25-54 and that the income effect dominates for men 25-54

The Expression of the Transcription Factor Broad and RNA-Binding Factors in the Midgut of the Mosquito Aedes Aegypti During Metamorphosis

Transcription factors, microRNAs and RNA binding factors frequently interact to coordinate gene expression during development. The transcription factor BROAD (BR) is a global regulator of insect gene transcription and governs the timing of the commitment to pupate. I determined BR expression in the Ae. aegypti midgut by qPCR, and correlated its expression with that of nine miRNAs and three RNA-binding factors. During midgut metamorphosis the expression of these factors was dynamic and reproducible. To better understand the changes in expression patterns, I evaluated the effects of hormone analogs on expression. Using this approach I uncovered concurrent up-regulation of BR, miR-34 and miR-14 in the pupal midgut when treated with methoprene, and found that RH2485 accelerated expression of BR, BRAT, and microRNAs let-7, and miR-125. Treatment with each hormone analog resulted in a change in BR expression. Finally, I evaluated the effect of nutrients on expression levels. Surprisingly, though most transcripts were down-regulated during starvation, the expression of BR did not decrease, while microRNAs miR-34 and miR-14 were elevated. This may identify a novel role for miR-34 during starvation in an invertebrate, and raises the possibility that miR-34 and miR-14 are part of a starvation-induced stress response in the mosquito midgut. In summary, this expression analysis suggests that microRNA regulation plays an important role during midgut metamorphosis, and reveals a new layer of regulatory complexity in the control of development in Ae. aegypti

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale

Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale’s Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930’s. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet nothing in the data suggests that the optimum was unwarranted