Looking ahead: forecasting and planning for the longer-range future, April 1, 2, and 3, 2005

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's spring Conference that took place during April 1, 2, and 3, 2005.The conference allowed for many highly esteemed scholars and professionals from a broad range of fields to come together to discuss strategies designed for the 21st century and beyond. The speakers and discussants covered a broad range of subjects including: long-term policy analysis, forecasting for business and investment, the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 report, Europe’s transition from the Marshal plan to the EU, forecasting global transitions, foreign policy planning, and forecasting for defense

Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives

The conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more when their ballot measure is likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive dataset of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood

Frequency of GAA-FGF14 Ataxia in a Large Cohort of Brazilian Patients With Unsolved Adult-Onset Cerebellar Ataxia

OBJECTIVES: Intronic FGF14 GAA repeat expansions have recently been found to be a common cause of hereditary ataxia (GAA-FGF14 ataxia; SCA27B). The global epidemiology and regional prevalence of this newly reported disorder remain to be established. In this study, we investigated the frequency of GAA-FGF14 ataxia in a large cohort of Brazilian patients with unsolved adult-onset ataxia. METHODS: We recruited 93 index patients with genetically unsolved adult-onset ataxia despite extensive genetic investigation and genotyped the FGF14 repeat locus. Patients were recruited across 4 different regions of Brazil. RESULTS: Of the 93 index patients, 8 (9%) carried an FGF14 (GAA)≥250 expansion. The expansion was also identified in 1 affected relative. Seven patients were of European descent, 1 was of African descent, and 1was of admixed American ancestry. One patient carrying a (GAA)376 expansion developed ataxia at age 28 years, confirming that GAA-FGF14 ataxia can occur before the age of 30 years. One patient displayed episodic symptoms, while none had downbeat nystagmus. Cerebellar atrophy was observed on brain MRI in 7 of 8 patients (87%). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that GAA-FGF14 ataxia is a common cause of adult-onset ataxia in the Brazilian population, although larger studies are needed to fully define its epidemiology

Protein Pattern Formation

Protein pattern formation is essential for the spatial organization of many intracellular processes like cell division, flagellum positioning, and chemotaxis. A prominent example of intracellular patterns are the oscillatory pole-to-pole oscillations of Min proteins in \textit{E. coli} whose biological function is to ensure precise cell division. Cell polarization, a prerequisite for processes such as stem cell differentiation and cell polarity in yeast, is also mediated by a diffusion-reaction process. More generally, these functional modules of cells serve as model systems for self-organization, one of the core principles of life. Under which conditions spatio-temporal patterns emerge, and how these patterns are regulated by biochemical and geometrical factors are major aspects of current research. Here we review recent theoretical and experimental advances in the field of intracellular pattern formation, focusing on general design principles and fundamental physical mechanisms.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, review articl

Expensive Egos: Narcissistic Males Have Higher Cortisol

Background: Narcissism is characterized by grandiosity, low empathy, and entitlement. There has been limited research regarding the hormonal correlates of narcissism, despite the potential health implications. This study examined the role of participant narcissism and sex on basal cortisol concentrations in an undergraduate population. Methods and Findings: Participants were 106 undergraduate students (79 females, 27 males, mean age 20.1 years) from one Midwestern and one Southwestern American university. Narcissism was assessed using the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, and basal cortisol concentrations were collected from saliva samples in a laboratory setting. Regression analyses examined the effect of narcissism and sex on cortisol (log). There were no sex differences in basal cortisol, F(1,97) =.20, p =.65, and narcissism scores, F(1,97) =.00, p =.99. Stepwise linear regression models of sex and narcissism and their interaction predicting cortisol concentrations showed no main effects when including covariates, but a significant interaction, b =.27, p =.04. Narcissism was not related to cortisol in females, but significantly predicted cortisol in males. Examining the effect of unhealthy versus healthy narcissism on cortisol found that unhealthy narcissism was marginally related to cortisol in females, b =.27, p =.06, but significantly predicted higher basal cortisol in males, b =.72, p =.01, even when controlling for potential confounds. No relationship was found between sex, narcissism, or their interaction on selfreported stress

Vitamin D Supplementation and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND Observational studies support an association between a low blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, whether vitamin D supplementation lowers the risk of diabetes is unknown. METHODS We randomly assigned adults who met at least two of three glycemic criteria for prediabetes (fasting plasma glucose level, 100 to 125 mg per deciliter; plasma glucose level 2 hours after a 75-g oral glucose load, 140 to 199 mg per deciliter; and glycated hemoglobin level, 5.7 to 6.4%) and no diagnostic criteria for diabetes to receive 4000 IU per day of vitamin D3 or placebo, regardless of the baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome in this time-to-event analysis was new-onset diabetes, and the trial design was event-driven, with a target number of diabetes events of 508. RESULTS A total of 2423 participants underwent randomization (1211 to the vitamin D group and 1212 to the placebo group). By month 24, the mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in the vitamin D group was 54.3 ng per milliliter (from 27.7 ng per milliliter at baseline), as compared with 28.8 ng per milliliter in the placebo group (from 28.2 ng per milliliter at baseline). After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, the primary outcome of diabetes occurred in 293 participants in the vitamin D group and 323 in the placebo group (9.39 and 10.66 events per 100 person-years, respectively). The hazard ratio for vitamin D as compared with placebo was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04; P = 0.12). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Among persons at high risk for type 2 diabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency, vitamin D3 supplementation at a dose of 4000 IU per day did not result in a significantly lower risk of diabetes than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694.