Health Expenditure Scenarios in the New Member States: Country Report on Bulgaria. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 44, 19 December 2007

The expenditures on health care in the new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe have never been based on the model of interdependence of socio-economic factors of the health state and the changes in the structure of population. The development of long-term scenarios here is based on the analysis of a previous study carried out within WPII “Health and Morbidity in the Accession Countries” and thus the health care expenditures are interrelated with the status of health of the nation. Like in the case of the other CEE countries included in the WPIX (Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) for the purpose of the scenarios calculations the model of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) Financial and Actuarial Service was used. The main objective of this report is to describe the interrelations between these three groups of indicators related to the health care expenditure in Bulgaria for 2003 taken as a base year and further to produce a long-term projections up to 2050, using an intermediary control (target) year 2025. The outlined projections can be useful for the future health care and social policy in Bulgaria

Long-term retrospective development of agriculture in Bulgaria, 1934–1989

The reform of agricultural land was one of the primary tasks during the transition from centrally planned to market economy in Bulgaria. The only undoubted point was the necessity of land restitution. It was without a doubt important to return the land to its rightful owners, the so called restitution. Both politicians and theoreticians were caught off guard in the face of the much needed radical reforms. The former is the main reason rendering some of the laws voted by the Bulgarian Parliament, including Law on Ownership and Use of the Farmland (1991) inefficient. The paper is aimed at outlining the main features of the long-term agricultural development in Bulgaria throughout the 20th century, namely before and during WWII as well as the period of centrally planned economy leading up to 1989. The historical overview is employed a background for the purpose of outlining preconditions for the following process of transition once again of agriculture to market economy type

Health and Morbidity in the Accession Countries, Country Report – Bulgaria. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 26, 6 December 2006

Not unlike other countries in Europe, Bulgaria has been subject to the steady process of population ageing, partly owing to the well-established downward trend in birth rates over the last several decades. In the past 15 years, this trend has been accompanied by the consequences of rising emigration, which has primarily involved young and active persons. As a result of the continual process of depopulation and an increase in population ageing, Bulgaria has one of the larger shares of older persons in Europe. The worsening demographic situation and health status of the Bulgarian people, exacerbated by the conditions of economic and social crisis during the transition period to a market economy may be the most alarming phenomena in Bulgaria. Although there are differences among the countries from Central and Eastern Europe, most of them also experienced a deterioration of demographic and health indicators in the 1990s. In Bulgaria, the economic crisis gravely damaged access to health care services in particular. This report presents the health status and morbidity of the population in Bulgaria over the past several decades, emphasising developments in the 1990s, during the country’s transition period. Using statistical data it offers an in-depth analysis of the social and economic factors that determine health status as well as the utilisation of health care services in Bulgaria

Convergence in the Neo-classical Model of Economic Growth

Theoretical foundation of the convergence concept in neo-classical growth model has been analysed. According to that concept, the income per capita growth tends to grow in reverse correlation of income initial level. In fact, however, there is obviously an outspoken lack of convergence in standards of living between developed and less developed countries. The new (endogenous) growth theories offer possible explanations for the observed lack of convergence between rich and poor countries. An empirical study is presented, reviewing 42 countries in the world (including 30 developed and 12 less developed countries) over the period 1900-2005 as well as by divided sub-periods. Special attention is paid to the convergence among EU member states by GDP by per capita in a historical retrospective.

Bulgaria’s GDP in International Comparisons using PPPs

The study is aimed at analysing basic methodological issues of GDP estimates converted into a common currency using PPPs in the practice of international comparisons as well as at relating these issues to estimation of real GDP for Bulgaria. The first section considers the PPPs concept and its relation to the exchange rate (ER) concept. The evolution of the ideas about PPPs concept as well as approaches to PPPs estimation is studied. The methodology and progress of the UN International Comparison Project (ICP) is described. The second section presents estimates of GDP using PPPs of international comparisons, including Bulgaria from the beginning of the century up to the present. The historical and economic changes during this comparatively long period determine three quite different by nature subperiods: until the end of World War II, under the conditions of centrally planning (1945-1989) and during the transition to a market economy (after 1989). The results of the first participation of Bulgaria in the European Comparison Programme of real GDP in 1993 are briefly described. An approach is applied to derive GDP estimates based on PPPs around a benchmark year. The importance of the problems considered for the country in connection with the urgent tasks of the transition is pointed out.

A New and Useful Statistics Textbook

REFERENCE to: Íèêîëîâà, Í. Ñòàòèñòèêà. Îáùà òåîðèÿ. Ñ.: Èçä. ÀÂÀÍÃÀÐÄ ÏÐÈÌÀ, 2010, 267 ñ. Òîâà å òðåòî èçäàíèå íà ó÷åáíèêà ñëåä ïúðâîòî îò 2004 ã- è âòîðî äîïúëíåíî è êîðèãèðàíî îò 2008 ã.

Medium-Term Forecastings of the Economic Growth in Bulgaria

Issues of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria are considered. Econometric models are used for the purpose of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in this country. The study is organized as follows. In the first section theoretical issues of the modlling and forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria as a country in transition are presented. In particular, the specificities and main patterns of macroeconomic development since the start of transition is described as an undefinite and unfavourable basis for forecasting in medium-term. The quality of statistical data (the time series) in the last over 10 years reflecting the transition economic reality is discussed as well as the nature of the applied models. In the second section medium-term forecasts for Bulgaria's economic growth based mainly on regression analysis are produced. Two alternative scenarios for Bulgaria's accession to the EU are calculated: one that assumes accession in 2007, and another that assumes that the country will not accede to the EU before 2010 (the status quo scenario). A production function is also applied taking into account the theory of endogenous growth. Finally concluding comments are given.

Theory and Politics of Contemporary Economic Growth

SCIENTIFIC LIFE: Information about a scientific conference hold on 6 November 2009 at the Institute of Economics at Bulgarien Academy of Science.

A Useful Book on Modern Business Ethics

REFERENCE to: Äàíèåëà Ñîòèðîâà. Áèçíåñ åòèêà. Ëóêñúò, êîéòî ñè çàñëóæàâà, áåç äà ñòðóâà ìíîãî. Ñ.: Èçäàòåëñòâî íà Íîâ áúëãàðñêè óíèâåðñèòåò, 2009, 544 ñ. Êíèãàòà å ÷åòâúðòîòî èçäàíèå íà ïúðâèÿ áúëãàðñêè ó÷åáíèê ïî áèçíåñ-åòèêà îò ñúùèÿ àâòîð (Áèçíåñ åòèêà. Ñ.: “Èíäóñòðè èäåÿ”, 1995).

Economic XX Century of Bulgaria

Reference to Ðóìåí Àâðàìîâ. Ñòîïàíñêèÿò ÕÕ âåê íà Áúëãàðèÿ. Ñ., Öåíòúð çà ëèáåðàëíè ñòðàòåãèè. 2001, 150 ñ.