Labour force developments in the euro area since the 1980s

This paper aims, first, at assessing the relative importance of working age population and participation rates to explain labour force developments in the euro area between 1983 and 2000. It also compares participation rates in the euro area vis-à-vis the US, considering age and gender groups. It shows that the effect of population growth on labour force developments is losing importance relative to the effects of changes in the participation rate. Indeed, in the last few years, the effects of changes in the participation rate have exceeded those of the increase in working age population. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. As regards the comparison of the euro area with the US, it shows a continuing large difference in women’s participation rate and among the youngest and oldest men’s age groups in the US versus the euro area, giving room for future positive contributions coming from participation in the euro area.

An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area

The paper starts by presenting some stylised facts on youth unemployment over the last two decades, both at the euro area and the country level. It shows that despite declining considerably over the last few years, youth unemployment has remained at a high level relative to other age groups in most euro area countries. The paper finds that there is a positive relationship between the share of young people in the total population and the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the smaller the share of young people in the population, the lower the risk of them being unemployed. At the same time, economic conditions are negatively correlated with the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the youth unemployment rate increases when the economic situation worsens. Moreover, robust results across the regression scenarios show that higher employment protection and minimum wages imply a higher youth unemployment rate, while active labour market policies (ALMPs) tend to reduce it. The results also indicate that the increasing share of services employment in total employment is helping to reduce unemployment among young persons. Furthermore, the increase in the youth inactivity rate, which is mainly due to the fact that there are more young people in education, is also linked to the overall decline in youth unemployment. Finally, as regards education, the results indicate that the number of years of education, the number of young people with vocational training and, to a lesser extent high scores in the PISA study, are associated with lower youth unemployment rates. The share of the young population not in school, however, is positively correlated with the unemployment rate. As youth unemployment is subject to certain country-specific features, each country should identify the relevant underlying sources of youth unemployment and react accordingly. Governments can make a positive contribution to the smooth transition of young persons fromeducation to the labour market by providing a well-functioning education system and labour market institutions that do not introduce distortions into the labour market. JEL Classification: I2, J11, J13, J21, J64.Youth, unemployment, employment, demographic trends, institutions, education.

Labour Force Participation in the Euro Area: A Cohort Based Analysis.

We use a cohort based model to analyse determinants of labour force participation for disaggregated groups of workers in the euro area and the five largest euro area countries. The model captures age and cohort effects as indicators of (unobserved) determinants of participation behaviour. We use these effects and observed determinants to construct trends and projections of labour supply. Our results suggest that age and cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. There is substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across countries. Looking forward, positive cohort effects for women are not large enough to compensate for the downward impact of population ageing on participation rates in the euro area. JEL Classification: J11, J21.labour force participation, cohort analysis, labour market institutions.

Household Sector Borrowing in the Euro Area: A Micro Data Persective

This paper uses microdata from the EU-SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) to generate structural information for the euro area on the incidence of household indebtedness and of the burden to service debt. It distinguishes this incidence according to relevant characteristics such as income, age and employment status, all elements that can be cross-examined in the light of theories such as the life-cycle hypothesis. Overall, income appears as the dominant feature determining the debt status of a household. The paper also examines the evolution of indebtedness and debt service burdens over time and compares it with the US. In general, the results suggest that the macroeconomic implications of indebtedness for monetary transmission and financial stability are not associated with the mean but with the tails of the distribution.household indebtedness, financial vulnerability, micro survey data, monetary transmission.

Labour productivity developments in the euro area

This paper provides a description and a discussion of some important aspects relating to recent productivity developments in the euro area. Following decades of stronger gains in the euro area than in the US, labour productivity growth has fallen behind that in the US in recent years. This reflects a decline in average labour productivity growth observed in the euro area since the mid-1990s, which stands in sharp contrast with opposite developments in the US. The decline in labour productivity growth experienced in the euro area since the mid-1990s resulted from both lower capital deepening and lower total factor productivity growth. From a sectoral perspective, industries not producing or using intensively information and communication technology (ICT) would appear mostly responsible for the decline in average labour productivity growth since the mid-1990s. These developments were broadly experienced by most euro area countries. A comparison with developments in the US suggests that the euro area economy seems to have benefited much less from increased production and use of ICT technologies, in particular in the services sector. Diverging trends in labour productivity growth between the euro area and the US in recent years mainly reflect developments in a number of specific ICT-using services such as retail, wholesale and some financial services where strong gains were registered in the US. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that, in order to support economic growth in the euro area, emphasis should be given to both policy measures that directly address the determinants of productivity and, given the interactions among the various factors of growth, to policies that raise labour utilisation.

Optimization in VHTS Satellite System Design with Irregular Beam Coverage for Non-Uniform Traffic Distribution

Very High Throughput Satellites (VHTS) have a pivotal role in complementing terrestrial networks to increase traffic demand. VHTS systems currently assume a uniform distribution of traffic in the service area, but in a real system, traffic demands are not uniform and are dynamic. A possible solution is to use flexible payloads, but the cost of the design increases considerably. On the other hand, a fixed payload that uses irregular beam coverage depending on traffic demand allows maintaining the cost of a fixed payload while minimizing the error between offered and required capacity. This paper presents a proposal for optimizing irregular beams coverage and beam pattern, minimizing the costs per Gbps in orbit, the Normalized Coverage Error, and Offered Capacity Error per beam. We present the analysis and performance for the case study and compare it with a previous algorithm for a uniform coverage area

Forward Link Optimization for the Design of VHTS Satellite Networks

The concept of geostationary VHTS (Very High Throughput Satellites) is based on multibeam coverage with intensive frequency and polarization reuse, in addition to the use of larger bandwidths in the feeder links, in order to provide high capacity satellite links at a reduced cost per Gbps in orbit. The dimensioning and design of satellite networks based on VHTS imposes the analysis of multiple trade-offs to achieve an optimal solution in terms of cost, capacity, and the figure of merit of the user terminal. In this paper, we propose a new method for sizing VHTS satellite networks based on an analytical expression of the forward link CINR (Carrier-to-Interference-plus-Noise Ratio) that is used to evaluate the trade-off of different combinations of system parameters. The proposed method considers both technical and commercial requirements as inputs, including the constraints to achieve the optimum solution in terms of the user G/T, the number of beams, and the system cost. The cost model includes both satellite and ground segments. Exemplary results are presented with feeder links using Q/V bands, DVB-S2X and transmission methods based on CCM and VCM (Constant and Variable Coding and Modulation, respectively) in two scenarios with different service areas

Cooperative Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Resource Management in Full Flexible VHTS Systems

Very high throughput satellite (VHTS) systems are expected to have a huge increase in traffic demand in the near future. Nevertheless, this increase will not be uniform over the entire service area due to the non-uniform distribution of users and changes in traffic demand during the day. This problem is addressed by using flexible payload architectures, which allow the allocation of payload resources flexibly to meet the traffic demand of each beam, leading to dynamic resource management (DRM) approaches. However, DRM adds significant complexity to VHTS systems, so in this paper we discuss the use of one reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm and two deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms to manage the resources available in flexible payload architectures for DRM. These algorithms are Q-Learning (QL), Deep Q-Learning (DQL) and Double Deep Q-Learning (DDQL) which are compared based on their performance, complexity and added latency. On the other hand, this work demonstrates the superiority a cooperative multiagent (CMA) decentralized distribution has over a single agent (SA)

Convolutional Neural Networks for Flexible Payload Management in VHTS Systems

Very high throughput satellite (VHTS) systems are expected to have a large increase in traffic demand in the near future. However, this increase will not be uniform throughout the service area due to the nonuniform user distribution, and the changing traffic demand during the day. This problem is addressed using flexible payload architectures, enabling the allocation of the payload resources in a flexible manner to meet traffic demand of each beam, leading to dynamic resource management (DRM) approaches. However, DRM adds significant complexity to the VHTS systems, which is why in this article, we are analyzing the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to manage the resources available in flexible payload architectures for DRM. The VHTS system model is first outlined, for introducing the DRM problem statement and the CNN-based solution. A comparison between different payload architectures is performed in terms of DRM response, and the CNN algorithm performance is compared by three other algorithms, previously suggested in the literature to demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach and to examine all the challenges involved