How does food price increase affect Ugandan households?: An augmented multimarket approach

"Almost unaffected by the 2008 wave of soaring world food prices, Ugandan local market prices exhibit signs of high price volatility in the first quarter of 2009. At the household level, while net producers may reap some benefits from this increase in food prices, net consumers are more likely to suffer from it. However, the net consumption impact of food price increase is not as straightforward as reported in previous studies. In this paper, we extend Singh et al. (1986) multimarket model by adding demand elasticities from the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). We use the integrated Ugandan National Household Survey (UNHS) 2005/2006 to estimate a measure of net consumption impact that includes both price and profit effects. Overall, we found that household welfare is expected to decrease with loss in consumption and increase with income gain as a result of higher food prices for the cereals producers. Simulating change in cereals consumption induced by a 50 percent increase in cereals price and taking into account the profit effect, our results predict a 23 percent decrease in food consumption for net sellers, compared with 44 percent when using the consumption approach alone. Accounting for such substitution effects, our results suggest that the impact of rising food prices may be mitigated because some households will attempt to substitute more expensive food items with cheaper ones; however, this apparent coping strategy often leads to a much poorer diet. The results suggest that the majority of households with expected positive income impact, the gainers, live in rural areas. These households also tend to have better access to agricultural services than the nongainers." from authors' abstractConsumption, Elasticity, Food prices, households, Multimarket, Science and technology, Institutional change, Innovation systems, Supply and demand, Household resource allocation, Gender,

How to Protect the Poor Food Insecure in the MENA region?

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces important challenges concerning food insecurity reflected in the double burden of malnutrition, under nutrition and over nutrition, with high prevalence of anaemia especially among children and women. Social Protection Programs may play significant role in affecting food security “directly” by affecting food supply and availability through providing basic goods at low prices or through agricultural subsidies. But the SPPs in the region are fragmented, poorly targeted, covering only formal employees with an increasing budget and low adequacy. This yields to an impact on food security and poverty less than what is expected. Using data from the World Development Indicator, FAOSTAT and IFPRI-Arab Spatial, the paper studies the impact of social expenditure on food security. Two dimensions are analyzed; food access and food availability, in eight countries of the region during the period from 2000 to 2011. The estimated results show that the prevalence of undernourishment and the prevalence of anemia among children decrease with the increase of social protection spending and with the existence of universal subsidies. Conditional and unconditional cash transfers have a significantly negative effect only on food access but not on food utilization. Additionally, the higher the share of agriculture in GDP and the lower the food price volatility, the better the food security status in the region

Policy options for food system transformation in Africa and the role of science, technology and innovation

As recognized by the Science, Technology and Innovation Strategy for Africa – 2024 (STISA-2024), science, technology and innovation (STI) offer many opportunities for addressing the main constraints to embracing transformation in Africa, while important lessons can be learned from successful interventions, including policy and institutional innovations, from those African countries that have already made significant progress towards food system transformation. This chapter identifies opportunities for African countries and the region to take proactive steps to harness the potential of the food and agriculture sector so as to ensure future food and nutrition security by applying STI solutions and by drawing on transformational policy and institutional innovations across the continent. Potential game-changing solutions and innovations for food system transformation serving people and ecology apply to (a) raising production efficiency and restoring and sustainably managing degraded resources; (b) finding innovation in the storage, processing and packaging of foods; (c) improving human nutrition and health; (d) addressing equity and vulnerability at the community and ecosystem levels; and (e) establishing preparedness and accountability systems. To be effective in these areas will require institutional coordination; clear, food safety and health-conscious regulatory environments; greater and timely access to information; and transparent monitoring and accountability systems

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several "food crises" (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).Food subsidy Mixed Demand Policy assessment Egypt

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: a mixed demand approach

International audienceFood subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several ‘‘food crises’’ (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban)