Optimal Exercise Strategies for Operational Risk Insurance via Multiple Stopping Times

In this paper we demonstrate how to develop analytic closed form solutions to optimal multiple stopping time problems arising in the setting in which the value function acts on a compound process that is modified by the actions taken at the stopping times. This class of problem is particularly relevant in insurance and risk management settings and we demonstrate this on an important application domain based on insurance strategies in Operational Risk management for financial institutions. In this area of risk management the most prevalent class of loss process models is the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) framework which involves modelling annual losses via a compound process. Given an LDA model framework, we consider Operational Risk insurance products that mitigate the risk for such loss processes and may reduce capital requirements. In particular, we consider insurance products that grant the policy holder the right to insure k of its annual Operational losses in a horizon of T years. We consider two insurance product structures and two general model settings, the first are families of relevant LDA loss models that we can obtain closed form optimal stopping rules for under each generic insurance mitigation structure and then secondly classes of LDA models for which we can develop closed form approximations of the optimal stopping rules. In particular, for losses following a compound Poisson process with jump size given by an Inverse-Gaussian distribution and two generic types of insurance mitigation, we are able to derive analytic expressions for the loss process modified by the insurance application, as well as closed form solutions for the optimal multiple stopping rules in discrete time (annually). When the combination of insurance mitigation and jump size distribution does not lead to tractable stopping rules we develop a principled class of closed form approximations to the optimal decision rule. These approximations are developed based on a class of orthogonal Askey polynomial series basis expansion representations of the annual loss compound process distribution and functions of this annual loss

Electrocardiographic patch devices and contemporary wireless cardiac monitoring.

Cardiac electrophysiologic derangements often coexist with disorders of the circulatory system. Capturing and diagnosing arrhythmias and conduction system disease may lead to a change in diagnosis, clinical management and patient outcomes. Standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), Holter monitors and event recorders have served as useful diagnostic tools over the last few decades. However, their shortcomings are only recently being addressed by emerging technologies. With advances in device miniaturization and wireless technologies, and changing consumer expectations, wearable “on-body” ECG patch devices have evolved to meet contemporary needs. These devices are unobtrusive and easy to use, leading to increased device wear time and diagnostic yield. While becoming the standard for detecting arrhythmias and conduction system disorders in the outpatient setting where continuous ECG monitoring in the short to medium term (days to weeks) is indicated, these cardiac devices and related digital mobile health technologies are reshaping the clinician-patient interface with important implications for future healthcare delivery

Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials show suboptimal validity of surrogate outcomes for overall survival in advanced colorectal cancer

Comparative StudyMeta-AnalysisReviewValidation StudiesThis is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVES: To quantify and compare the treatment effects on three surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and tumor response rate (TR) vs. overall survival (OS) based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of drug interventions in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for RCTs of pharmacologic therapies in aCRC between 2003 and 2013. Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded based on a predefined form. Univariate and multivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate pooled summary treatment effects. The ratio of hazard ratios (HRs)/odds ratios (ORs) and difference in medians were used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects on the surrogate end points and OS. Spearman ρ, surrogate threshold effect (STE), and R(2) were also estimated across predefined trial-level covariates. RESULTS: We included 101 RCTs. In univariate and multivariate meta-analyses, we found larger treatment effects for the surrogates than for OS. Compared with OS, treatment effects were on average 13% higher when HRs were measured and 3% to 45% higher when ORs were considered; differences in median PFS/TTP were higher than on OS by an average of 0.5 month. Spearman ρ ranged from 0.39 to 0.80, mean R(2) from 0.06 to 0.65, and STE was 0.8 for HRPFS, 0.64 for HRTTP, or 0.28 for ORTR. The stratified analyses revealed high variability across all strata. CONCLUSION: None of the end points in this study were found to achieve the level of evidence (ie, mean R(2)trial > 0.60) that has been set to select high or excellent correlation levels by common surrogate evaluation tools. Previous surrogacy relationships observed between PFS and TTP vs. OS in selected settings may not apply across other classes or lines of therapy

Interaction of Stress, Lead Burden, and Age on Cognition in Older Men: The VA Normative Aging Study

BACKGROUND. Low-level exposure to lead and to chronic stress may independently influence cognition. However, the modifying potential of psychosocial stress on the neurotoxicity of lead and their combined relationship to aging-associated decline have not been fully examined. OBJECTIVES. We examined the cross-sectional interaction between stress and lead exposure on Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores among 811 participants in the Normative Aging Study, a cohort of older U.S. men. METHODS. We used two self-reported measures of stress appraisal-a self-report of stress related to their most severe problem and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Indices of lead exposure were blood lead and bone (tibia and patella) lead. RESULTS. Participants with higher self-reported stress had lower MMSE scores, which were adjusted for age, education, computer experience, English as a first language, smoking, and alcohol intake. In multivariable-adjusted tests for interaction, those with higher PSS scores had a 0.57-point lower (95% confidence interval, -0.90 to 0.24) MMSE score for a 2-fold increase in blood lead than did those with lower PSS scores. In addition, the combination of high PSS scores and high blood lead categories on one or both was associated with a 0.05-0.08 reduction on the MMSE for each year of age compared with those with low PSS score and blood lead level (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS. Psychological stress had an independent inverse association with cognition and also modified the relationship between lead exposure and cognitive performance among older men. Furthermore, high stress and lead together modified the association between age and cognition.National Institutes of Health (R01ES07821, R01HL080674, R01HL080674-02S1, R01ES013744, ES05257-06A1, P20MD000501, P42ES05947, ES03918-02); National Center for Research Resources General Clinical Research Center (M01RR02635); Leaves of Grass Foundation; United States Department of Veterans Affair

Is philosophy of education a historical mistake? Connecting philosophy and education differently

In this article, I suggest that the question whether the proper place for philosophy of education is in the domain of philosophy or the domain of education cannot be resolved as long as we think of the connection between philosophy and education in terms of the idea of 'philosophy of education'. To substantiate this point, I look into the history of the idea of 'philosophy of education', both as a general idea and with regard to the way in which it became institutionalised in universities in the English-speaking world. I contrast this with the way in which the academic study of education developed in German-speaking countries in order to highlight that 'philosophy of education' is not the only way in which philosophy and education can be connected. Being aware that the connection between philosophy and education can be made differently not only provides a way out of the discussion about the proper identity and location of philosophy of education, but also hints at forms of philosophically informed scholarship that are more firmly based with the academic field of education rather than that they remain a halfway house in between philosophy and education

The electric dipole response of 76^{76}Se above 4 MeV

The dipole response of $^{76}_{34}$Se in the energy range 4 to 9 MeV has been analyzed using a $(\vec\gamma,{\gamma}')$ polarized photon scattering technique, performed at the High Intensity $\gamma$-Ray Source facility, to complement previous work performed using unpolarized photons. The results of this work offer both an enhanced sensitivity scan of the dipole response and an unambiguous determination of the parities of the observed J=1 states. The dipole response is found to be dominated by $E1$ excitations, and can reasonably be attributed to a pygmy dipole resonance. Evidence is presented to suggest that a significant amount of directly unobserved excitation strength is present in the region, due to unobserved branching transitions in the decays of resonantly excited states. The dipole response of the region is underestimated when considering only ground state decay branches. We investigate the electric dipole response theoretically, performing calculations in a 3D cartesian-basis time-dependent Skyrme-Hartree-Fock framework.Comment: 20 pages, 18 figures, to be submitted to PR

A novel targeted/untargeted GC-Orbitrap metabolomics methodology applied to Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus biofilms

Introduction: Combined infections from Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus are a leading cause of death in the developed world. Evidence suggests that Candida enhances the virulence of Staphylococcus—hyphae penetrate through tissue barriers, while S. aureus tightly associates with the hyphae to obtain entry to the host organism. Indeed, in a biofilm state, C. albicans enhances the antimicrobial resistance characteristics of S. aureus. The association of these microorganisms is also associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. Due to this tight association we hypothesised that metabolic effects were also in evidence. Objectives: To explore the interaction, we used a novel GC-Orbitrap-based mass spectrometer, the Q Exactive GC, which combines the high peak capacity and chromatographic resolution of gas chromatography with the sub-ppm mass accuracy of an Orbitrap system. This allows the capability to leverage the widely available electron ionisation libraries for untargeted applications, along with expanding accurate mass libraries and targeted matches based around authentic standards. Methods: Optimised C. albicans and S. aureus mono- and co-cultured biofilms were analysed using the new instrument in addition to the fresh and spent bacterial growth media. Results: The targeted analysis experiment was based around 36 sugars and sugar phosphates, 22 amino acids and five organic acids. Untargeted analysis resulted in the detection of 465 features from fresh and spent medium and 405 from biofilm samples. Three significantly changing compounds that matched to high scoring library fragment patterns were chosen for validation. Conclusion: Evaluation of the results demonstrates that the Q Exactive GC is suitable for metabolomics analysis using a targeted/untargeted methodology. Many of the results were as expected: e.g. rapid consumption of glucose and fructose from the medium regardless of the cell type. Modulation of sugar-phosphate levels also suggest that the pentose phosphate pathway could be enhanced in the cells from co-cultured biofilms. Untargeted metabolomics results suggested significant production of cell-wall biosynthesis components and the consumption of non-proteinaceous amino-acids

Sorting of chromosomes by magnetic separation

Chromosomes were isolated from Chinese hamster x human hybrid cell lines containing four and nine human chromosomes. Human genomic DNA was biotinylated by nick translation and used to label the human chromosomes by in situ hybridization in suspension. Streptavidin was covalently coupled to the surface of magnetic beads and these were incubated with the hybridized chromosomes. The human chromosomes were bound to the magnetic beads through the strong biotin-streptavidin complex and then rapidly separated from nonlabeled Chinese hamster chromosomes by a simple permanent magnet. The hybridization was visualized by additional binding of avidin-FITC (fluorescein) to the unoccupied biotinylated human DNA bound to the human chromosomes. After magnetic separation, up to 98% of the individual chromosomes attached to magnetic beads were classified as human chromosomes by fluorescence microscopy