Multi-Horizon Forecast Comparison

We introduce tests for multi-horizon superior predictive ability. Rather than comparing forecasts of different models at multiple horizons individually, we propose to jointly consider all horizons of a forecast path. We define the concepts of uniform and average superior predictive ability. The former entails superior performance at each individual horizon, while the latter allows inferior performance at some horizons to be compensated by others. The paper illustrates how the tests lead to more coherent conclusions, and how they are better able to differentiate between models than the single-horizon tests. We provide an extension of the previously introduced Model Confidence Set to allow for multi-horizon comparison of more than two models. Simulations demonstrate appropriate size and high power. An illustration of the tests on a large set of macroeconomic variables demonstrates the empirical benefits of multi-horizon comparison

Hedging Long-Term Liabilities

Pension funds and life insurers face interest rate risk arising from the duration mismatch of their assets and liabilities. With the aim of hedging long-term liabilities, we estimate variations of a Nelson–Siegel model using swap returns with maturities up to 50 years. We consider versions with three and five factors, as well as constant and time-varying factor loadings. We find that we need either five factors or time-varying factor loadings in the three-factor model to accommodate the long end of the yield curve. The resulting factor hedge portfolios perform poorly due to strong multicollinearity of the factor loadings in the long end, and are easily beaten by a robust, near Mean-Squared-Error- optimal, hedging strategy that concentrates its weight on the longest available liquid bond

Score-Driven Nelson Siegel: Hedging Long-Term Liabilities

textabstractDue to its affine structure the Nelson-Siegel model for yield curves can be transformed to a factor model for excess bond returns. Hedging interest rate risk in this framework amounts to eliminating the factor exposure and minimizing the residual risk. Fitting the model directly on excess returns with constant factor loadings leads to large hedging errors caused by substantial and persistent time-variation in the shape parameter of the Nelson-Siegel factor loadings. To capture this variation we develop a Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) model for the shape parameter. This dynamic model offers superior hedging performance and reduces the hedging error standard deviation by almost 50% during the financial crisis. Much of the improvement is due to the model for the shape parameter with some further reduction achieved by a GARCH model for the residual risk

Replication package for: Conditional Superior Predictive Ability

The package contains the code and data necessary to reproduce the figures and talbes in Li, Liao and Quaedvlieg (forthcoming). "Conditional Superior Preditive Ability." Review of Economic Studies

Multi-Horizon Forecast Comparison

We introduce tests for multi-horizon superior predictive ability (SPA). Rather than comparing forecasts of different models at multiple horizons individually, we propose to jointly consider all horizons of a forecast path. We define the concepts of uniform and average SPA. The former entails superior performance at each individual horizon, while the latter allows inferior performance at some horizons to be compensated by others. The article illustrates how the tests lead to more coherent conclusions, and how they are better able to differentiate between models than the single-horizon tests. We provide an extension of the previously introduced model confidence set to allow for multi-horizon comparison of more than two models. Simulations demonstrate appropriate size and high power. An illustration of the tests on a large set of macroeconomic variables demonstrates the empirical benefits of multi-horizon comparison

Replication package for: Conditional Superior Predictive Ability

The package contains the code and data necessary to reproduce the figures and talbes in Li, Liao and Quaedvlieg (forthcoming). "Conditional Superior Preditive Ability." Review of Economic Studies