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Esitelmä201

Endogenising yield development through management and crop rotation decisions in dynamic farm level modeling

201

Farm level dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices

Agriculture is facing increasing challenges under volatile commodity markets, on-going climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and tightened environmental constraints. Crop rotation is considered essential and may even gain more importance for sustainable farming in the context of climate change challenges while monocropping is expected to become increasingly problematic. This is, among others, because of increasing plant protection challenges due to warmer climate which is expected to result in severe droughts, heavy rainfall and waterlogging in northern latitudes more frequently. Such changes require improved soil structure and water retention, also aided by crop rotations, to avoid yield losses. Our objective is to build and apply a dynamic optimization model of farm level crop rotation on many field parcels over 30-40 years. The model takes into account various adaptation management methods such as fungicide treatment, soil improvements such as liming, and nitrogen fertilization, simultaneously with dynamic crop rotation choices. However, these management options come along with costs. Using the model, outcomes of crop growth simulation modeling can be included into economic analysis. Simulated new cultivars, suited for a longer growing season, can be defined as alternatives to current cultivars, both having specific nutrient and other input requirements such as water, labor or pesticides. The model is used in evaluating the value of future cultivars and other management practices in climate and socio-economic scenarios. The first results show that expected market prices have major impacts on the management choices, the resulting yield levels, production and income over time

Problems and opportunities in climate change adaptation in North Savo region

Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs

Specific problems and solutions in climate change adaptation in North Savo region

Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs

Problems and opportunities in climate change adaptation in North Savo region

Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs

Taudinkestävien ja tautialttiiden ohralajikkeiden taloudellinen vertailu

Kasvitaudit aiheuttavat sadonmenetyksiä ja vaikuttavat näin viljelijän taloudelliseen tulokseen ja kuluttajahintoihin. Kasvitautien torjuntaan on olemassa useita keinoja, mutta usein viljelijät käyttävät kemiallista torjuntaa. Ammattiviljelijät siirtyvät noudattamaan integroidun torjunnan yleisiä periaatteita vuoden 2014 alusta alkaen. Integroidun torjunnan tarkoituksena on vähentää kemiallisen torjunnan tarvetta. Maataloudessa on toimintaympäristössä tapahtuneiden muutosten vuoksi jouduttu tehostamaan tuotantoa, joka on johtanut viljelykierron yksipuolistumiseen ja viljelymenetelmien muutoksiin. Tapahtunut kehitys on suotuisaa kasvitautien leviämiselle. MTT:n Hyötygeeni-hankkeessa ohralajikkeiden taudinkestävyyttä on jalostettu maatiaislajikkeiden avulla kolmea kasvitautia vastaan: verkkolaikkua, rengaslaikkua ja härmää. Jalostettuja lajikkeita on viisi: jokaisen yksittäisen kasvitaudin kestäviä ja lisäksi härmän ja verkkolaikun kestävää sekä verkko- ja rengaslaikun kestävää. Taudinkestäviä lajikkeita viljelemällä fungisidien (kasvitautien torjunta-aineiden) tarve poistuu. Tällöin säästöjä saadaan aine-, kone- ja työkustannuksissa. Taudinkestävyyden jalostus kuitenkin heikentää lajikkeen muita ominaisuuksia ja viljelijälle on olennaista tuotannosta saatava voitto. Tällöin kustannussäästöjen on oltava suuremmat kuin alentuneesta sadosta johtuvat tuottotappiot. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli vertailla maatiaislajikkeiden taudinkestävyydellä jalostettujen ja tautialttiiden ohralajikkeiden viljelystä saatavia taloudellisia hyötyjä. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin kahta aineistoa: taudinkestävien lajikkeiden satotappiokokeita kasvukaudelta 2010 ja eri fungisidien torjuntatehokkuutta mittaavia kenttäkokeita kasvukausilta 1999–2010. Tutkimuksen teoria perustuu klassiseen tuotantofunktioon ja lyhyen aikavälin voitonmaksimointiin. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytettiin varianssi- ja regressioanalyysia ja hyödynnettiin lineaarista sekamallia, jolla voitiin minimoida sääolosuhteiden ja koepaikkojen vaikutukset tuloksiin. Lisätuottojen vertailu onnistui tutkimuksessa paremmin varianssianalyysilla. Regressioanalyysin hyödyntäminen oli ongelmallista kenttäkokeiden järjestelyjen ja kasvitautien luonteen vuoksi. Kenttäkokeiden keskimääräisellä tautiesiintymällä fungisidien käyttö oli kannattavampaa kuin taudinkestävien lajikkeiden viljely. Ainoastaan härmän ja verkkolaikun kestävän lajikkeen lisätuotot olivat lähes yhtä suuret kuin taloudellisesti parhailla fungisideilla käsiteltyjen alttiiden lajikkeiden. Taudinkestävien lajikkeiden hyödyt tulevat paremmin esille, kun kasvitautiesiintymä lisääntyy ja fungisidien hinta kasvaa suhteessa ohran hintaan

Farm-Level Effects of Emissions Tax and Adjustable Drainage on Peatlands

202