Unemployment Duration Before and After New Deal

A major active labour market policy - the New Deal for Young People (NDYP) - was introduced throughout the UK in 1998. We examine its effects on unemployment duration by estimating hazard functions for unemployment outflows before and after its introduction. We add value to existing evaluations in the following ways. First, we examine previously unused administrative data for Northern Ireland. Second, we examine NDYP effects at all unemployment durations. Third, we estimate separately by gender. Fourth, exits to employment, education and training and other benefits are identified separately. Since NDYP's introduction, young people are 25-50% less likely to experience year-long unemployment spells, with increased probabilities for all types of exit. NDYP is intended, however, to largely eradicate long term youth unemployment. We ask why this has not been the case in Northern Ireland.unemployment duration, new deal, hazard functions, young people

The exact power envelope of tests for a unit root

We show how to obtain the exact power envelope of tests for a unit root against trend-stationary alternatives, under normality. This is in contrast to the asymptotic power envelope derived by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996), and is used to indicate the lack of power of unit root tests in fixed sample sizes. <br><br> Keywords; power envelope, unit root tests <br><br> JEL classification: C12, C22

The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on US-UK bilateral trade flows. As part of econometric problems arising from a generated variable, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of the primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the United KinARCH model; Consistent estimation; Generated regressors; Volatility

The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the UK: Consistent OLS estimation with volatility measured by an ARCH-type model

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on US-UK bilateral trade flows. As part of econometric problems arising from a generated variable, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of the primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the United KingdomARCH model; Consistent OLS estimation; Generated regressors;

The exact power envelope of tests for a unit root

We show how to obtain the exact power envelope of tests for a unit root against trend-stationary alternatives, under normality. This is in contrast to the asymptotic power envelope derived by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996), and is used to indicate the lack of power of unit root tests in fixed sample sizes

The impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates

In this paper, the impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates is investigated for the case of the U.S. three-month Treasury bill rate. We emphasize how consistentOLS estimation can be applied to an empirical equation which includes a proxy variable of inflation uncertainty measured by an ARCH-type model. A significant negative relationship between the two variables is provided. This evidence is contrasted with the view of the inflation risk premium in which inflation uncertainty positively affects the nominal interest rate

Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships

The powers of various tests for cointegration are compared in an experimental design where there is a possible mismatch between the variables used in the construction of the tests and the variables entering the true cointegrating vector(s)

Testing Misspecified Cointegration Relationships

We evaluate by Monte Carlo simulation the empirical sizes of Johansen's likelihood ratio tests for the number of cointegrating vectors using his tabulated asymptotic critical values. The powers of these tests and of the Dickey-Fuller and cointegrating regression Durbin-Watson tests for cointegration are compared in an experimental design where more than one cointegrating vector is possible, and where there is a possible mismatch between the variables used in the construction of the tests and the variables entering the true cointegrating vector(s). This analysis allows for potential overspecification or underspecification of the variables included in a cointegration analysis