Benefit-Cost Analysis of FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants

Mitigation ameliorates the impact of natural hazards on communities by reducing loss of life and injury, property and environmental damage, and social and economic disruption. The potential to reduce these losses brings many benefits, but every mitigation activity has a cost that must be considered in our world of limited resources. In principle benefit-cost analysis (BCA) can be used to assess a mitigation activity’s expected net benefits (discounted future benefits less discounted costs), but in practice this often proves difficult. This paper reports on a study that refined BCA methodologies and applied them to a national statistical sample of FEMA mitigation activities over a ten-year period for earthquake, flood, and wind hazards. The results indicate that the overall benefit-cost ratio for FEMA mitigation grants is about 4 to 1, though the ratio varies according to hazard and mitigation type.

Clinical performance and Willingness To Pay for soft toric contact lenses in low and moderate astigmats

Purpose: To determine clinical performance and the ‘Willingness To Pay’ for toric vs. spherical soft contact lenses in an astigmatic population. Methods: In the clinical study, subjects with binocular low to moderate astigmatism (-0.75DC to − 1.50DC) wore pairs of soft toric (Biofinity toric) and spherical (Biofinity) contact lenses in random sequence. Visual acuity (high and low contrast, monocular and binocular), subjective comfort and subjective vision were recorded. In the economics study, first subjects who had participated in the clinical study were presented with a series of randomised economic scenarios in order to determine their Willingness To Pay a premium (i.e. an increase) for toric lenses. Then, a similar set of scenarios were presented to a much larger group of online respondents and again, Willingness To Pay was established. Results: For the four measures of visual acuity, the Biofinity toric lens out-performed the Biofinity spherical lens by 0.6 to 1.1 lines.. Subjective vision performance was statistically significantly better with the toric lens for the distance task only. Comfort scores were not significantly different. Similar findings for Willingness To Pay were established for the clinical subjects and for the online respondents. The Willingness To Pay premium (additional fee) for a monthly supply of toric lenses (over spherical lenses) was between £13 and £16, if a toric lens provides better vision and similar comfort, as shown in the clinical study. Conclusion: Consumers are willing to pay a monthly premium of around 50% to benefit from the typical experience of better vision and similar comfort for toric vs. spherical lenses. The level of additional cost for toric lenses compared to their spherical equivalents is less than this in the market, so eye care professionals should consider that toric lenses are delivering a greater clinical return than anticipated by wearers for the relatively small increase in price

On well-rounded ideal lattices - II

We study well-rounded lattices which come from ideals in quadratic number fields, generalizing some recent results of the first author with K. Petersen. In particular, we give a characterization of ideal well-rounded lattices in the plane and show that a positive proportion of real and imaginary quadratic number fields contains ideals giving rise to well-rounded lattices.Comment: 13 pages; to appear in the International Journal of Number Theor

Acceptability of Carraguard Vaginal Microbicide Gel among HIV-Infected Women in Chiang Rai, Thailand

Background: Few studies of microbicide acceptability among HIV-infected women have been done. We assessed CarraguardH vaginal gel acceptability among participants in a randomized, controlled, crossover safety trial in HIV-infected women in Thailand. Methodology/Principal Findings: Participants used each of 3 treatments (Carraguard gel, methylcellulose placebo gel, and no product) for 7 days, were randomized to one of six treatment sequences, and were blinded to the type of gel they received in the two gel-use periods. After both gel-use periods, acceptability was assessed by face-to-face interview. Responses were compared to those of women participating in two previous Carraguard safety studies at the same study site. Sixty women enrolled with a median age of 34 years; 25 % were sexually active. Self-reported adherence (98%) and overall satisfaction rating of the gels (87% liked ‘‘somewhat’ ’ or ‘‘very much’’) were high, and most (77%) considered the volume of gel ‘‘just right.’ ’ For most characteristics, crossover trial participants evaluated the gels more favorably than women in the other two trials, but there were few differences in the desired characteristics of a hypothetical microbicide. Almost half (48%) of crossover trial participants noticed a difference between Carraguard and placebo gels; 33 % preferred Carraguard while 12 % preferred placebo (p=0.01). Conclusions/Significance: Daily Carraguard vaginal gel use was highly acceptable in this population of HIV-infecte

Carbon stable isotope analysis of cereal remains as a way to reconstruct water availability: preliminary results

Reconstructing past water availability, both as rainfall and irrigation, is important to answer questions about the way society reacts to climate and its changes and the role of irrigation in the development of social complexity. Carbon stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains is a potentially valuable method for reconstructing water availability. To further define the relationship between water availability and plant carbon isotope composition and to set up baseline values for the Southern Levant, grains of experimentally grown barley and sorghum were studied. The cereal crops were grown at three stations under five different irrigation regimes in Jordan. Results indicate that a positive but weak relationship exists between irrigation regime and total water input of barley grains, but no relationship was found for sorghum. The relationship for barley is site-specific and inter-annual variation was present at Deir ‘Alla, but not at Ramtha and Khirbet as-Samra

The Problem of Experience in the Study of Organizations

This paper deals with the fact that we cannot experience large organizations directly, in the same way as we can experience individuals or small groups, and that this non-experientiability has certain implications for our scientific theories of organizations. Whereas a science is animated by a constructive interplay of theory concepts and experience concepts, the study of organizations has been confined to theory concepts alone. Implications of this analysis for developing a science of organizations are considered.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68303/2/10.1177_017084069301400102.pd

Meta-analysis of randomized trials: evaluation of benefit from gemcitabine-based combination chemotherapy applied in advanced pancreatic cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Single-agent gemcitabine (GEM) is a standard treatment for advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer. This study examines the question whether GEM-based combination chemotherapy can further improve treatment efficacy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate randomized trials comparing GEM versus GEM+X (X = cytotoxic agent). Fifteen trials including 4465 patients were eligible for an analysis of overall survival, the primary end-point of this investigation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The meta-analysis revealed a significant survival benefit for GEM+X with a pooled hazard ratio (HR) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85 – 0.97, p = 0.004). The overall test for heterogeneity resulted in p = 0.82 (I²= 0%). The analysis of platinum-based combinations indicated a HR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.76 – 0.96, p = 0.010), while for fluoropyrimidine-based combinations the HR was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81 – 0.99, p = 0.030). No risk reduction was observed in the group of trials combining GEM with irinotecan, exatecan or pemetrexed (HR = 0.99). A meta-analysis of the trials with adequate information on baseline performance status (PS) was performed in five trials with 1682 patients. This analysis indicated that patients with a good PS had a marked survival benefit when receiving combination chemotherapy (HR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.67 – 0.87; p < 0.0001). By contrast, application of combination chemotherapy to patients with an initially poor PS appeared to be ineffective (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.90 – 1.29, p = 0.40).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The meta-analysis of randomized trials indicated a significant survival benefit when GEM was either combined with platinum analogs or fluoropyrimidines. Based on a preliminary subgroup analysis (representing 38% of all patients included in this meta-analysis), pancreatic cancer patients with a good PS appear to benefit from GEM-based cytotoxic combinations, whereas patients with a poor PS seem to have no survival benefit from combination chemotherapy.</p

Comparing methods to estimate treatment effects on a continuous outcome in multicentre randomized controlled trials: A simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multicentre randomized controlled trials (RCTs) routinely use randomization and analysis stratified by centre to control for differences between centres and to improve precision. No consensus has been reached on how to best analyze correlated continuous outcomes in such settings. Our objective was to investigate the properties of commonly used statistical models at various levels of clustering in the context of multicentre RCTs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Assuming no treatment by centre interaction, we compared six methods (ignoring centre effects, including centres as fixed effects, including centres as random effects, generalized estimating equation (GEE), and fixed- and random-effects centre-level analysis) to analyze continuous outcomes in multicentre RCTs using simulations over a wide spectrum of intraclass correlation (ICC) values, and varying numbers of centres and centre size. The performance of models was evaluated in terms of bias, precision, mean squared error of the point estimator of treatment effect, empirical coverage of the 95% confidence interval, and statistical power of the procedure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While all methods yielded unbiased estimates of treatment effect, ignoring centres led to inflation of standard error and loss of statistical power when within centre correlation was present. Mixed-effects model was most efficient and attained nominal coverage of 95% and 90% power in almost all scenarios. Fixed-effects model was less precise when the number of centres was large and treatment allocation was subject to chance imbalance within centre. GEE approach underestimated standard error of the treatment effect when the number of centres was small. The two centre-level models led to more variable point estimates and relatively low interval coverage or statistical power depending on whether or not heterogeneity of treatment contrasts was considered in the analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>All six models produced unbiased estimates of treatment effect in the context of multicentre trials. Adjusting for centre as a random intercept led to the most efficient treatment effect estimation across all simulations under the normality assumption, when there was no treatment by centre interaction.</p

The Evolutionary Dynamics of the Lion Panthera leo Revealed by Host and Viral Population Genomics

The lion Panthera leo is one of the world's most charismatic carnivores and is one of Africa's key predators. Here, we used a large dataset from 357 lions comprehending 1.13 megabases of sequence data and genotypes from 22 microsatellite loci to characterize its recent evolutionary history. Patterns of molecular genetic variation in multiple maternal (mtDNA), paternal (Y-chromosome), and biparental nuclear (nDNA) genetic markers were compared with patterns of sequence and subtype variation of the lion feline immunodeficiency virus (FIVPle), a lentivirus analogous to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In spite of the ability of lions to disperse long distances, patterns of lion genetic diversity suggest substantial population subdivision (mtDNA ΦST = 0.92; nDNA FST = 0.18), and reduced gene flow, which, along with large differences in sero-prevalence of six distinct FIVPle subtypes among lion populations, refute the hypothesis that African lions consist of a single panmictic population. Our results suggest that extant lion populations derive from several Pleistocene refugia in East and Southern Africa (∼324,000–169,000 years ago), which expanded during the Late Pleistocene (∼100,000 years ago) into Central and North Africa and into Asia. During the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (∼14,000–7,000 years), another expansion occurred from southern refugia northwards towards East Africa, causing population interbreeding. In particular, lion and FIVPle variation affirms that the large, well-studied lion population occupying the greater Serengeti Ecosystem is derived from three distinct populations that admixed recently

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from −90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures (‘lockdowns’). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95–0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92–0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94–1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96–1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88–1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88–1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87–1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02–1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03–1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03–1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05–1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways