Improving Wargames using Complex System Practices

This paper describes our ongoing efforts to improve current military wargame as used by the Dutch defence. In a typical wargame scenario military commanders and Intelligence officers are playing the game of blue and red forces, drawing their course of actions in order to outplay one and the other. Most of these games, as far as they don’t require fully scripted scenarios, are based upon regular, symmetric, and large scale military operations. These core models are usually based upon mutual attrition and require a lot of personnel. In this study, we focus on two particular issues. First of all, the configuration of a typical wargame scenario which is a complicated and time consuming process. Second, most wargames lack the incorporation of active non-combatants like civilians which are of utmost importance for the shape and dynamics of today’s battlefield. For both these issues we explore the usefulness of complex (adaptive) system knowledge and tools. Our aim is to use simple models of selforganization, both to simplify scenario configuration and to generate complex human behaviours. To do so, we study the use of various agent-based modelling approaches; in particular the well-known work of Axtell and Epstein on socio-cultural modelling called “Sugarscape”. We believe that, although these kinds of models are a very coarse and simplified representation of reality, they are useful in generating behavioural effects that mimic real-life patterns. Incorporating these models into a wargame context will confront military decision makers with the possible unforeseen higher order effects of their actions. Moreover, such an extended wargame would provide an interesting tool that could support evolutionary approaches to current military challenges

Content-Based Art Retrieval (C-BAR)

Contains fulltext : 32358.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

A process for placing the human at the centre of the constructive simulation

This paper will describe different aspects of human behaviour and characteristics that can be represented by modelling techniques, based on ongoing work within the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), the Nederland’s Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and the US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). It will then propose how these characteristics can be used within a range of different types of constructive simulation, in particular agent based models. Importantly, it will also consider an integrated process of experimentation and analysis to validate and maintain development of human factors representations within constructive simulations

Combat Identification and Fratricide: A Human Affair

Over the past two years TNO and Dstl developed an Agent Based Combat ID Model to support the research on factors influencing the success and failure of Combat Identification processes. During the International Data farming Workshop (IDFW) 15 in Singapore, we evaluated this model by conducting the first data farming experiments. The model represents Situation Awareness (SA) and the cognitive processes to combine new sensor input with SA in order to make identification decisions. A description of the model and the results of the Singapore experiments can be found in [ref 1]. A more general treatment about an architecture for placing the human at the centre of a constructive simulation, which also contains a more extensive description of this agent based Combat ID model, can be found in the ICCRTS 2008 paper [ref 2] This paper describes the progress we made with the model development since IDFW 15 and the results from the data farming experiments we conducted during IDFW 16 in Monterey. In a few paragraphs an overview will be given of the new features, the objectives, the design of the experiments and the results. We will conclude this paper with lessons learned, conclusions and future developments

A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure

Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizens and organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systems in urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural disasters. In this paper, we propose a structured approach to assess extreme weather impacts on CI and discuss how resilience and risk tolerance of critical infrastructure can be enhanced. The approach is aimed at supporting CI owners' and managers' decision-making on a strategic level. It follows a process flow from hazard and CI identification, vulnerability analysis, potential damage estimation, loss assessment to identification and assessment of measures. The approach incorporates many elements, phases and methods from hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and combines and incorporates them into one aggregated structure, thus providing a holistic view to risk management and CI protection. The proposed approach is flexible in the sense that it encompasses not only a rigorous quantitative assessment, but also allows for a semi-quantitative or qualitative assessment. In addition, the approach enhances transparency of decision making and contributes to more comprehensive use of available information. The paper is based on research carried out in the INTACT and HARMONISE projects, which are co-funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme. © 2016 WIT Press