Oil price risk and emerging stock markets

This paper uses an international multi-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model that allows for both unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and emerging stock market returns. In general we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets. Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and policy makers.Emerging markets; market risk; oil price risk

ECONOMICS OF AGROFORESTRY PRODUCTION IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE

A dynamic optimization model for agroforestry management is developed where tree biomass and soil salinity evolve over time in response to harvests and irrigation water quantity and quality. The model is applied to agroforestry production in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Optimal water applications are at first increasing in soil salinity, then decreasing, while the harvest decision is relatively robust to changes in most of the underlying economic and physical parameters. Drainwater reuse for agroforestry production also appears promising: both net reuse volumes and the implied net returns to agroforestry are substantial.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets

While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the dynamic relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging market stock prices. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression model to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard and projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run. The model also captures stylized facts regarding movements in oil prices. A positive oil production shock lowers oil prices while a positive shock to real economic activity increases oil prices. There is also evidence that increases in emerging market stock prices increases oil prices.Emerging market stock prices; oil prices; exchange rates

Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies

a b s t r a c t This study examines the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of 9 Central and Eastern European frontier economies. Several different measures of financial development are examined including bank related variables and stock market variables. The empirical results, obtained from dynamic panel demand models, show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using banking variables like deposit money bank assets to GDP, financial system deposits to GDP, or liquid liabilities to GDP. Of the three stock market variables investigated, only one, stock market turnover, has a positive and statistically significant impact on energy consumption. Both short-run and long-run elasticities are presented. The implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH

While much research uses multivariate GARCH to model volatility dynamics and risk measures, one particular type of multivariate GARCH model, GO-GARCH, has been underutilized. This paper uses DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices, oil prices, VIX, gold prices and bond prices. A rolling window analysis is used to construct out-of-sample onestep-ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios. In most of the situations we study, oil is the best asset to hedge emerging market stock prices. Hedge ratios from the ADCC model are preferred (most effective) for hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, VIX, or bonds. Hedge ratios estimated from the GO-GARCH are most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with gold in some instances. These results are reasonably robust to choice of model refits, forecast length and distributional assumptions

Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH

While much research uses multivariate GARCH to model volatility dynamics and risk measures, one particular type of multivariate GARCH model, GO-GARCH, has been underutilized. This paper uses DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices, oil prices, VIX, gold prices and bond prices. A rolling window analysis is used to construct out-of-sample onestep-ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios. In most of the situations we study, oil is the best asset to hedge emerging market stock prices. Hedge ratios from the ADCC model are preferred (most effective) for hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, VIX, or bonds. Hedge ratios estimated from the GO-GARCH are most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with gold in some instances. These results are reasonably robust to choice of model refits, forecast length and distributional assumptions

The Role of Globalization on the Recent Evolution of Energy Demand in India: Implications for Sustainable Development

Using annual data for the period 1971-2012, this study explores the relationship between globalization and energy consumption for India by endogenizing economic growth, financial development and urbanization. The cointegration test proposed by Bayer-Hanck (2013) is applied to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. After confirming the existence of cointegration, the overall results from the estimation of an ARDL energy demand function reveal that in the long run, the acceleration of globalization (measured in three dimensions - economic, social and overall globalization) leads to a decline in energy demand in India. Furthermore, while financial development is negatively related to energy consumption, economic growth and urbanization are the key factors leading to increased energy demand in the long run. These results have policy implications for the sustainable development of India. In particular, globalization and financial development provide a win-win situation for India to increase its economic growth in the long run and become more environmentally sustainable

Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets

While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the dynamic relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging market stock prices. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression model to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard and projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run. The model also captures stylized facts regarding movements in oil prices. A positive oil production shock lowers oil prices while a positive shock to real economic activity increases oil prices. There is also evidence that increases in emerging market stock prices increases oil prices

The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach

The impact that oil shocks have on stock prices in oil exporting countries has implications for both domestic and international investors. We derive the shocks driving oil prices from a fully-identified structural model of the oil market. We study their nonlinear relationship with stock market returns in major oil-exporting countries in a multi-factor Markov-switching framework. Flow oil-demand shocks have a statistically significant impact on stock returns in Canada, Norway, Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Idiosyncratic oil-market shocks affect stock returns in Norway, Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Speculative oil shocks impact stock returns in Canada, Russia, Kuwait and the UAE. Flow oil-supply shocks matter for the UK, Kuwait, and UAE. Mexico is the only country where stock returns are unaffected by oil shocks. These results shed important light on investor sentiment toward the relationship between oil shocks and stock markets in oil exporting countries