Maximum Distortion Attacks in Electricity Grids

Multiple attacker data-injection attack construction in electricity grids with minimum-mean-square-error state estimation is studied for centralized and decentralized scenarios. A performance analysis of the trade-off between the maximum distortion that an attack can introduce and the probability of the attack being detected by the network operator is considered. In this setting, optimal centralized attack construction strategies are studied. The decentralized case is examined in a game-theoretic setting. A novel utility function is proposed to model this trade-off and it is shown that the resulting game is a potential game. The existence and cardinality of the corresponding set of Nash equilibria of the game is analyzed. Interestingly, the attackers can exploit the correlation among the state variables to facilitate the attack construction. It is shown that attackers can agree on a data-injection vector construction that achieves the best trade-off between distortion and detection probability by sharing only a limited number of bits offline. For the particular case of two attackers, numerical results based on IEEE test systems are presented

Information-theoretic attacks in the smart grid

Gaussian random attacks that jointly minimize the amount of information obtained by the operator from the grid and the probability of attack detection are presented. The construction of the attack is posed as an optimization problem with a utility function that captures two effects: firstly, minimizing the mutual information between the measurements and the state variables; secondly, minimizing the probability of attack detection via the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the distribution of the measurements with an attack and the distribution of the measurements without an attack. Additionally, a lower bound on the utility function achieved by the attacks constructed with imperfect knowledge of the second order statistics of the state variables is obtained. The performance of the attack construction using the sample covariance matrix of the state variables is numerically evaluated. The above results are tested in the IEEE 30-Bus test system

Stealth attacks on the smart grid

Random attacks that jointly minimize the amount of information acquired by the operator about the state of the grid and the probability of attack detection are presented. The attacks minimize the information acquired by the operator by minimizing the mutual information between the observations and the state variables describing the grid. Simultaneously, the attacker aims to minimize the probability of attack detection by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the distribution when the attack is present and the distribution under normal operation. The resulting cost function is the weighted sum of the mutual information and the KL divergence mentioned above. The trade-off between the probability of attack detection and the reduction of mutual information is governed by the weighting parameter on the KL divergence term in the cost function. The probability of attack detection is evaluated as a function of the weighting parameter. A sufficient condition on the weighting parameter is given for achieving an arbitrarily small probability of attack detection. The attack performance is numerically assessed on the IEEE 14-Bus, 30-Bus, and 118-Bus test systems

When Does Output Feedback Enlarge the Capacity of the Interference Channel?

In this paper, the benefits of channel-output feedback in the Gaussian interference channel (G-IC) are studied under the effect of additive Gaussian noise. Using a linear deterministic (LD) model, the signal to noise ratios (SNRs) in the feedback links beyond which feedback plays a significant role in terms of increasing the individual rates or the sum-rate are approximated. The relevance of this work lies on the fact that it identifies the feedback SNRs for which in any G-IC one of the following statements is true: (a) feedback does not enlarge the capacity region; (b) feedback enlarges the capacity region and the sum-rate is greater than the largest sum-rate without feedback; and (c) feedback enlarges the capacity region but no significant improvement is observed in the sum-rate

Robust recovery of missing data in electricity distribution systems

The advanced operation of future electricity distribution systems is likely to require significant observability of the different parameters of interest (e.g., demand, voltages, currents, etc.). Ensuring completeness of data is, therefore, paramount. In this context, an algorithm for recovering missing state variable observations in electricity distribution systems is presented. The proposed method exploits the low rank structure of the state variables via a matrix completion approach while incorporating prior knowledge in the form of second order statistics. Specifically, the recovery method combines nuclear norm minimization with Bayesian estimation. The performance of the new algorithm is compared to the information-theoretic limits and tested trough simulations using real data of an urban low voltage distribution system. The impact of the prior knowledge is analyzed when a mismatched covariance is used and for a Markovian sampling that introduces structure in the observation pattern. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is robust and outperforms existing state of the art algorithms

Recovering Missing Data via Matrix Completion in Electricity Distribution Systems

The performance of matrix completion based recovery of missing data in electricity distribution systems is analyzed. Under the assumption that the state variables follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution the matrix completion recovery is compared to estimation and information theoretic limits. The assumption about the distribution of the state variables is validated by the data shared by Electricity North West Limited. That being the case, the achievable distortion using minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation is assessed for both random sampling and optimal linear encoding acquisition schemes. Within this setting, the impact of imperfect second order source statistics is numerically evaluated. The fundamental limit of the recovery process is characterized using Rate-Distortion theory to obtain the optimal performance theoretically attainable. Interestingly, numerical results show that matrix completion based recovery outperforms MMSE estimator when the number of available observations is low and access to perfect source statistics is not availabl

An information theoretic metric for measurement vulnerability to data integrity attacks on smart grids

A novel metric that describes the vulnerability of the measurements in power systems to data integrity attacks is proposed. The new metric, coined vulnerability index (VuIx), leverages information theoretic measures to assess the attack effect in terms of the fundamental limits of the disruption and detection tradeoff. The result of computing the VuIx of the measurements in the system yields an ordering of their vulnerability based on the degree of exposure to data integrity attacks. This new framework is used to assess the measurement vulnerability of IEEE 9-bus and 30-bus test systems and it is observed that power injection measurements are significantly more vulnerable to data integrity attacks than power flow measurements. A detailed numerical evaluation of the VuIx values for IEEE test systems is provided

Approximate Capacity Region of the Two-User Gaussian Interference Channel with Noisy Channel-Output Feedback

In this paper, the capacity region of the linear deterministic interference channel with noisy channel-output feedback (LD-IC-NF) is fully characterized. The proof of achievability is based on random coding arguments and rate splitting; blockMarkov superposition coding; and backward decoding. The proof of converse reuses some of the existing outer bounds and includes new ones obtained using genie-aided models. Following the insight gained from the analysis of the LD-IC-NF, an achievability region and a converse region for the two-user Gaussian interference channel with noisy channel-output feedback (GIC-NF) are presented. Finally, the achievability region and the converse region are proven to approximate the capacity region of the G-IC-NF to within 4.4 bits

The worst-case data-generating probability measure in statistical learning

The worst-case data-generating (WCDG) probability measure is introduced as a tool for characterizing the generalization capabilities of machine learning algorithms. Such a WCDG probability measure is shown to be the unique solution to two different optimization problems: (a) The maximization of the expected loss over the set of probability measures on the datasets whose relative entropy with respect to a reference measure is not larger than a given threshold; and (b) The maximization of the expected loss with regularization by relative entropy with respect to the reference measure. Such a reference measure can be interpreted as a prior on the datasets. The WCDG cumulants are finite and bounded in terms of the cumulants of the reference measure. To analyze the concentration of the expected empirical induced by the WCDG probability measure, the notion of (,δ)-robustness of models is introduced. Closed-form expressions are presented for the sensitivity of the expected loss for a fixed model. These tools result in the characterization of a novel expression for the generalization error of arbitrary machine learning algorithms. This exact expression is provided in terms of the WCDG probability measure and leads to an upper bound that is equal to the sum of the mutual information and the lautum information between the models and the datasets, up to a constant factor. This upper bound is achieved by a Gibbs algorithm. This finding reveals that an exploration into the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm facilitates the derivation of overarching insights applicable to any machine learning algorithm