Flood insurance in Scotland: a cause for serious concern

The availability of flood insurance to compensate victims for the financial losses they incur from flooding is fundamental to flood risk management in UK in underpinning government risk management measures. Yet in Scotland, insurance penetration rates in the population are low for those in the lower deciles of gross weekly income, and for those living in rented accommodation. The subsidised affordable policies available under Flood Re are not available to this fraction of the population, as they do not insure now and therefore are not eligible. The rented segment of the housing market is expanding, leaving an increasingly large number of people likely not to insure against flood damage although many will hopefully have damage to the structure of their houses covered by landlords’ insurance policies. The vulnerability to flooding of Scottish households with low incomes in rented accommodation is a most unsatisfactory situation, particularly as climate change appears to have greatest impact in increasing flood severity in such deprived and disadvantaged neighbourhoods

Floating architecture in the landscape: climate change adaptation ideas, opportunities and challenges

Opportunities exist for radical strategies, driven by spatial planning, to adapt our urban fabric to climate change. Floating developments are one such innovation. This phenomenon and its ideas are driven by a variety of societal forces, including by population pressure, rapid urbanisation, the resulting need for additional housing inventory, by urban adaptation strategies to counter fluvial flooding and sea level rise, plus interests in urban landscape renewal. We reflect on seventeen projects in five countries and note that, to date, it is inner city harbours or industrial areas in decline that are being targeted for floating communities. These can add renewal, recreational and landscape value, while simultaneously expanding the existing urban housing stock

Comparing the scale of modelled and recorded current flood risk: results from England

As the Sendai framework recognises, understanding the nature and severity of risk is an important prerequisite to sensible risk reducing measures. The UK has been in the forefront of assessing the scale of flood risk at a national level to inform investment and policy directions but the scale of this risk, as modelled, has reduced since 2014. This paper compares the most recent modelled version of national flood risk, in the form of the Environment Agency’s State of the Nation report, with loss figures quantified in terms of insurance claims data for the period 1998 to 2018. Depending on assumptions, the results show that the modelled results are between 2.06 and over 9.0 times the comparable flood losses measured in terms of the compensation paid to flood victims by insurance companies. The reasons for these differences remain unclear but several possibilities are reviewed. Many of these reasons appear implausible, but the divergence between the two sets of results should encourage the users of this data to consider carefully their assessments of the true scale of flood risk that the country faces, and perhaps promote similar comparisons in other countries

China's ‘Sponge Cities’: the role of constructed wetlands in alleviating urban pluvial flooding

Research examined constructed wetlands (CWs) in piloting the ‘Sponge City’, a Chinese initiative designed, in part, to curtail extensive urban pluvial flooding. In Yangzhou a small number of exploratory qualitative interviews with relevant professionals elucidated key issues. The interviewees supported the concept of CWs but were uniformly sceptical about their viability. A possible CW in the city was also modelled, quantifying its effects and limitations. Results show that CWs can help attenuate urban flooding but there are important caveats concerning their implementation. These concern their size and capacity, sufficiency of urban space, and their economic sustainability. The political dimension of the Sponge City concept, including support from President Xi Jinping, suggests that CWs may be a distraction from more widespread urban flooding, which CWs may well not alleviate. Piloting is continuing and results will need to be more positive if Sponge Cities can be a strategically important flood attenuation measure

Flood risk management under uncertainty in transboundary basins: a delicate balancing act

Flooding is an inherently uncertain hydrometeorological phenomenon. When it occurs in transboundary basins, the complexity of its management is amplified by international treaties and needs for political accountability. Little has been written about FRM under the inevitable uncertainty in these transboundary contexts. This paper addresses this gap through an exploratory case study of a new FRM plan (Plan 2014) in the Great Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River system in North America. We examine the evolving nature of contemporary FRM towards more flexible approaches in the face of increasing uncertainty. When this new management plan coincided with severe transboundary flooding, this highlighted deep tensions, notably between upstream and downstream communities, expert and lay opinion, and between the planners setting rules and the operators using those rules. This story also showcases the complex balancing act faced by flood risk managers operating across national boundaries who are asked to contend with hydrological variability as well as public needs for certainty. We contend that the negotiation and agreed dispute resolution processes surrounding these tensions is a fundamental component of FRM in international basins, and one that may become ever more important as climate change further increases the uncertainty regarding these hydrometeorological hazards

Managed retreat: a rare and paradoxical success, but yielding a dismal prognosis

Managed retreat (MR) involves permanent resettlement of existing households and communities away from areas at risk, here coastal flood risk. On post-Sandy Staten Island, New York, where MR has been successful, our research findings from interviews and a focus group of key stakeholders and commentators indicate there are very significant political impediments as well as financial constraints to MR programs being successful without the experience of a disaster and a repetitive sequence of hazardous events. Pre-disaster and long-term plans for reducing risks in such vulnerable areas are easy to advocate but not to implement. Many coastal locations globally will need some form of MR, where current risk is very high as a legacy of past decisions and where many communities will not be defendable against the expected future sea level rise. With leadership and community commitment locally MR agendas can and should be pursued: the optimistic scenario. But success appears likely only in the aftermath of a major disaster. This suggests strongly that we may have to await those inevitable disasters, and then be ready to act, rather than vice versa: a worrying conclusion and a dismal prognosis

Sharing the burden of adapting to increasing flood risk: who pays for flood insurance and flood risk management investment in the United Kingdom

Many countries are exploring alternative strategies to counter rising flood risk as there is concern at the extra burden that such increasing risk will bring. The aim of this paper is to explore the nature of these burdens, and outline responses in the United Kingdom where both the government and the private flood insurers have new policies and proposals. Our method is to collate the extensive existing authoritative data and information - from government and the insurance industry - about the risks that are being experienced and the related policy responses. The results show that these seek to concentrate somewhat more the financial burden of, respectively, flood risk management costs and insurance provisions on to those who are at risk and away from the general taxpayer and those who pay insurance premiums. Other countries may well learn from these developments. The pre-existing cross-subsidies are being reduced and, in this way, it is hoped that extra resources for risk management investment will be forthcoming (from local contributions from at-risk communities) and flood insurance will remain affordable, available and commercially viable. A key conclusion here is that it appears that any increase in flood frequency and severity in the UK appears likely to affect the financially deprived communities to a greater extent than others, not least because they are less likely to insure. Government arrangements to prioritise their contribution to risk reducing towards these financially deprived communities is a sign that this regressive effect of floods is real and serious, and those arrangements are to be welcomed

Innovation in flood risk management: an 'Avenues of Innovation' analysis

Innovation in flood risk management (FRM) is a driver for change. Research, however, is sparse in this area, and innovation itself appears to be left largely to chance. This paper uses a ’systems of innovation’ approach, defining ’avenues’ of innovation, to explore factors that promote or inhibit innovation. The research is based on in-depth interviews with 10 leading figures in FRM in the United Kingdom, and describes the interactions and iterations involved. We conclude that in terms of practice the encouragement of champions should be enhanced, risk cultures require concerted attention to minimise risk aversion, learning should be facilitated, and innovation scaled up to maximise its effectiveness. We aim also to add to the literature on innovation systems, providing a case study of a complex field previously unexplored in this regard. Detailed innovation-encouraging processes here need to be better understood and FRM policies and practices adjusted accordingly

Adding an implementation phase to the framework for flood policy evolution: insights from South Africa

South African flood risk management policy changed radically after the end of apartheid (1994), with the Disaster Management Act 2002 promoting a modern proactive approach. However our policy document research and two case studies show an implementation deficit. The pre-existing ‘crises and catalysts’ theoretical framework we used for analysing flood policy evolution needs more attention to implementation issues, and the learning involved. Future flood policy change in South Africa or elsewhere should ensure that the process of learning is purposefully embedded within the structures, procedures and practices that are promoted to facilitate policy implementation, rather than being left to chance

The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk resulting from climate change

The changing risk of flooding associated with climate change presents different challenges for the different flood insurance market models in use around the world, which vary in respect of consumer structure and their risk transfer mechanism. A review of international models has been undertaken against three broad criteria for the functioning and sustainability of a flood insurance scheme: knowing the nature of the insurable risk; the availability of an insurable population; and the presence of a solvent insurer. The solvency of insurance markets appears strong, partly because insurers and reinsurers can choose to exclude markets which would give rise to insolvency or can diversify their portfolios to include offsetting perils. Changing risk may threaten solvency if increasing risk is not recognised and adjusted for but insurability of flood risk may be facilitated by the use of market based and hybrid schemes offering greater diversification and more flexibility. While encouragement of mitigation is in theory boosted by risk based pricing, availability and affordability of insurance may be negatively impacted. This threatens the sustainability of an insurable population, therefore the inclusion of the state in partnership is beneficial in ensuring continuity of cover, addressing equity issues and incentivising mitigation