On the Cyclicality of Real Wages and Wage Differentials

In this paper we investigate the cyclicality of real wages. The approach we take is to search for the largest possible common cyclical component in a statistical sense. This contrasts with the existing literature which uses observable variables to proxy for a common cycle. We do so by using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model and longitudinal microdata. We find that the comovement of real wages can be related to a common factor that exhibits a significant but far from perfect correlation with the national unemployment rate. Our findings indicate that (i) the common factor explains, on average, no more than 9% of wage variation, (ii) the common factor accounts for 20% or less of the wage variability for 88% of the workers in the sample and (iii) roughly half of the wages move procyclically while half move countercyclically. These facts are inconsistent with claims of a strong systematic relationship between real wages and the business cycle. We show that these results are inconsistent with models of Walrasian labor markets typically used in DSGE models. We also confirm findings of previous studies in which skilled and unskilled wages exhibit roughly the same degree of cyclical variation.Wages, wage differentials, business cycles, Bayesian analysis.

On Imperfect Competition with Occasionally Binding Cash-in-Advance Constraints

We provide extensive theoretical analysis of the general equilibrium of an economy with imperfect competition in the final goods sector, endogenous production and fully flexible prices in the presence of occasionally binding cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints, under general assumptions about the velocity of money. Whether the CIA constraint binds or not and the induced variability of the velocity of money depend on expectations of risk-averse consumers about the future relative value of money as well as the degree of imperfect competition. We establish the uniqueness of the equilibrium, the conditions under which money has real effects, even in the absence of other real assets, and examine the role of imperfect competition and welfare implications. With perfect foresight, in a zero-inflation steady state the CIA constraint strictly binds and output is less than would occur when the CIA constraint is non-binding. There is also an optimal negative steady-state inflation rate. Finally, we consider how the introduction of capital and bonds would fit into the framework.Cash-in-advance, general equilibrium, monopolistic competition, imperfect competition, money velocity.

On the causality between household and government spending on education: evidence from a panel of 40 countries

This paper sheds light on an important causality which is of primary interest for policy makers, at both country level and broad institutional level, though it is largely ignored in the literature. Using panel data from a diversified group of countries and after controlling for various factors and endogeneities within the context of multivariate models, we present evidence that an increase in the intensity of government spending on education leads to an overall increase in the intensity of household spending on education of a roughly equal magnitude, within a span of two years. Specifically, a 1% increase in the intensity of government spending on education induces a contemporaneous increase in the intensity of household spending on education of 3%, followed by a correction of 2% the subsequent year. We further find that the reverse causality does not hold. Our mediation analysis within our set of variables suggests that the causality is only direct, and that there is no statistically significant distinction between low- and high-income countries

On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials

Previous empirical literature suggests that estimated wage cyclicality depends on the structure of the relationship between real wages and an observed indicator of the business cycle that econometric models impose prior to estimation. This paper, alleviates the problem of imposing such structure by searching directly for the largest common cycles in longitudinal microdata using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model. We find that the comovement of real wages is related to a common factor that exhibits a significant but imperfect correlation with the national unemployment rate. Among others, our findings indicate that the common factor explains, on average, no more than 9% of wage variation, it accounts for 20% or less of the wage variability for 88% of the workers in the sample and roughly half of the wages move procyclically while half move countercyclically. These facts are inconsistent with claims of a strong systematic relationship between real wages and business cycles

R&D and aggregate fluctuations

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959–2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment

On imperfect competition with occasionally binding cash-in-advance constraints

We provide a theoretical demonstration of the link between imperfect competition and the cash-in-advance constraint, not previously considered in the literature. In a general equilibrium framework, we show that imperfect competition affects the proportion of times that the cash-in-advance constraint binds. As the market becomes more competitive it is certainly no less likely that the cash-in-advance constraint will bind. Therefore, economic welfare changes not only because of the direct effect of the change in the distribution of aggregate consumption but also because of the indirect effect of the cash-in-advance constraint. Other implications are also demonstrate