Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observation

Challenges to estimating vaccine impact using hospitalization data.

Because the real-world impact of new vaccines cannot be known before they are implemented in national programs, post-implementation studies at the population level are critical. Studies based on analysis of hospitalization rates of vaccine-preventable outcomes are typically used for this purpose. However, estimates of vaccine impact based on hospitalization data are particularly prone to confounding, as hospitalization rates are tightly linked to changes in the quality, access and use of the healthcare system, which often occur simultaneously with introduction of new vaccines. Here we illustrate how changes in healthcare delivery coincident with vaccine introduction can influence estimates of vaccine impact, using as an example reductions in infant pneumonia hospitalizations after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in Brazil. To this end, we explore the effect of changes in several metrics of quality and access to public healthcare on trends in hospitalization rates before (2008-09) and after (2011-12) PCV10 introduction in 2010. Changes in infant pneumonia hospitalization rates following vaccine introduction were significantly associated with concomitant changes in hospital capacity and the fraction of the population using public hospitals. Importantly, reduction of pneumonia hospitalization rates after PCV10 were also associated with the expansion of outpatient services in several Brazilian states, falling more sharply where primary care coverage and the number of health units offering basic and emergency care increased more. We show that adjustments for unrelated (non-vaccine) trends commonly employed by impact studies, such as use of single control outcomes, are not always sufficient for accurate impact assessment. We discuss several ways to identify and overcome such biases, including sensitivity analyses using different denominators to calculate hospitalizations rates and methods that track changes in the outpatient setting. Employing these practices can improve the accuracy of vaccine impact estimates, particularly in evolving healthcare settings typical of low- and middle-income countries

Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines on Pneumonia Hospitalizations in High- and Low-Income Subpopulations in Brazil.

BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are being used worldwide. A key question is whether the impact of PCVs on pneumonia is similar in low- and high-income populations. However, most low-income countries, where the burden of disease is greatest, lack reliable data that can be used to evaluate the impact. Data from middle-income countries that have both low- and high-income subpopulations can provide a proxy measure for the impact of the vaccine in low-income countries.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of PCV10 on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in Brazil, a middle-income country with localities that span a broad range of human development index (HDI) levels. We used complementary time series and spatiotemporal methods (synthetic controls and hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression) to test whether the decline in pneumonia hospitalizations associated with vaccine introduction varied across the socioeconomic spectrum.ResultsWe found that the declines in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations in children and young and middle-aged adults did not vary substantially across low and high HDI subpopulations. Moreover, the estimated declines seen in infants and young adults were associated with higher levels of uptake of the vaccine at a local level.ConclusionsThese results suggest that PCVs have an important impact on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in both low- and high-income populations

Comparação de Bromus auleticus Trinius com outras gramíneas perenes de inverno.

Bromus auleticus é uma espécie nativa, perene, com crescimento hibernal e sem latência estival, com ampla distribuição no Sul do Brasil (Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina), Argentina e Uruguai, que tem se destacado pela sua precocidade de produção e qualidade da forragem.bitstream/item/110590/1/COMPARACAO-DE-BROMUS.pd

Rotavirus C: prevalence in suckling piglets and development of virus-like particles to assess the influence of maternal immunity on the disease development

International audienceAbstractRotavirus C (RVC) has been detected increasingly in humans and swine in different countries, including the US. It is associated with significant economic losses due to diarrheal disease in nursing piglets. In this study we aimed: (1) to determine the prevalence of RVC in healthy and diarrheic suckling piglets on US farms; and (2) to evaluate if maternal antibody (Ab) levels were associated with protection of newborn suckling piglets against RVC. There was a significantly higher prevalence (p = 0.0002) of litters with diarrhea born to gilts compared with those born to multiparous sows. Of 113 nursing piglet fecal samples tested, 76.1% were RVC RNA positive. Fecal RVC RNA was detected in significantly (p = 0.0419) higher quantities and more frequently in piglets with diarrhea compared with healthy ones (82.5 vs. 69.9%). With the exception of the historic strain Cowden (G1 genotype), field RVC strains do not replicate in cell culture, which is a major impediment for studying RVC pathogenesis and immunity. To circumvent this, we generated RVC virus-like particles (VLPs) for Cowden (G1), RV0104 (G3) and RV0143 (G6) and used them as antigens in ELISA to detect swine RVC Abs in serum and milk from the sows. Using RVC-VLP Ab ELISA we demonstrated that sows with diarrheic litters had significantly lower RVC IgA and IgG Ab titers in milk compared to those with healthy litters. Thus, our data suggest that insufficient lactogenic protection provided by gilts plays a key role in the development of and the increased prevalence of clinical RVC disease

Identification of Salmonella clonal groups and enterobacteria quantification in different risk areas of manufacturing process in four Brazilian feed mills

Identification of critical points for contamination of feed and spread of Salmonella may contribute to the development of control plans. A cross-sectional study was conducted to identify Salmonella clonal groups in feed mill facilities. A total of 1,322 samples were collected in four swine feed manufacturing facilities. Samples were taken from ingredients and from dust deposited on the floor and on the inner surface of storage bins, bucket elevators, mills, mixers, scales, pelleting chamber and cooler

Oral vitamin A supplementation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infected gilts enhances IgA and lactogenic immune protection of nursing piglets

International audienceAbstractVitamin A (VA) has pleiotropic effects on the immune system and is critical for mucosal immune function and intestinal lymphocyte trafficking. We hypothesized that oral VA supplementation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV)-infected pregnant gilts would enhance the gut-mammary gland-secretory IgA axis to boost lactogenic immunity and passive protection of nursing piglets against PEDV challenge. Gilts received daily oral retinyl acetate (30 000 IU) starting at gestation day 76 throughout lactation. At 3–4 weeks pre-partum, VA-supplemented (PEDV + VA) and non-supplemented (PEDV) gilts were PEDV or mock inoculated (mock + VA and mock, respectively). PEDV + VA gilts had decreased mean PEDV RNA shedding titers and diarrhea scores. To determine if lactogenic immunity correlated with protection, all piglets were PEDV-challenged at 3–5 days post-partum. The survival rate of PEDV + VA litters was 74.2% compared with 55.9% in PEDV litters. Mock and mock + VA litter survival rates were 5.7% and 8.3%, respectively. PEDV + VA gilts had increased PEDV IgA antibody secreting cells and PEDV IgA antibodies in serum pre-partum and IgA+β7+ (gut homing) cells in milk post piglet challenge compared with PEDV gilts. Our findings suggest that oral VA supplementation may act as an adjuvant during pregnancy, enhancing maternal IgA and lactogenic immune protection in nursing piglets

Frequência de isolamento de Salmonella sp. e de enterobactérias em fábricas de ração para suínos.

Projeto/Plano de Ação: 16.00.30.004-00