The process of convergence towards the euro for the Visegrad-4 countries

The aim of the paper is to analyze the foreign transmission mechanism between each of the Visegrad-4 countries and the eurozone, through an empirical analysis of the basic international parity conditions linking Czech, Hungarian, Polish and Slovakian inflations and interest rates with the ones of the current euro area members. The focus of the analysis is to show the differences among these catching-up economies, with particular attention to their process of convergence towards the eurozone economy. For reasons due to the availability of data, the sample covers the last decade. We use the cointegrated VAR model to define longrun stationary relations as well as common stochastic trends. The methodology adopted is properly apt to uncover the dynamic structure underlying the stochastic behaviour of prices, interest rates and exchange rate. Of particular interest is the empirical finding that the parities do not hold on their own, as expected, but that weaker form of the same parities, or linear combinations of them, hold in our data set, with some differences for each country. Also the process of convergence is different: the Czech Republic seems to have reached a relative convergence, while for the other countries we have that the process show a tendency towards convergence.Visegrad_4 countries, PPP, UIP, RIP, Cointegrated VAR, Convergence

Monetary policy through the “credit-cost channel”. Italy and Germany pre and post-EMU

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the "credit-cost channel" (CCC) of monetary policy transmission. This model combines bank credit supply, as a means whereby monetary policy affects economic activity ("credit channel"), and interest rates on loans as a cost to firms ("cost channel"). The thrust of the model is that the CCC makes both aggregate demand and aggregate supply dependent on monetary policy. As a consequence a) credit market conditions (e.g. risk spreads) are important sources and indicators of macroeconomic shocks, b) the real effects of monetary policy are larger and persistent. We have applied the Johansen-Juselius CVAR methodology to Italy and Germany in the "hard" EMS period and in the EMU period. The short-run and long-run effects of the CCC are detectable for both countries in both periods. We have also replicated the Johansen-Juselius technique for the simulation of rule-based stabilization policy for both Italy and Germany in the EMU period. As a result, we have found confirmation that inflationtargeting by way of inter-bank rate control, grafted onto the estimated CCC model, would stabilize inflation through structural shifts of the stochastic equilibrium paths of both inflation and output.Macroeconomics and monetary economics, Monetary transmission mechanisms, Structural cointegration models, Italian economy, German economy

Monetary policy through the “credit-cost channel”. Italy and Germany

In this paper we wish to extend the empirical content of the "credit-cost channel" of monetary policy that we proposed in Passamani and Tamborini (2005). In the first place, we replicate the econometric estimation of the model for Italy, to which we add Germany. We find confirmation that, in both countries, firms' reliance on bank loans (“credit channel”) makes aggregate supply sensitive to bank interest rates (“cost channel”), which are in turn driven by the inter-bank rate controlled by the central bank plus a credit risk premium charged by banks on firms. The second extension consists of a formal econometric analysis of the idea that the interest rate is an instrument of control for the central bank. The empirical results of the CCC model that, according to Johansen and Juselius (2003), innovations in the inter-bank rate qualify this variables as a "control variable" in the system. Hence we replicate the Johansen and Juselius technique of simulation of rule-based stabilization policy. This is done for both Italy and Germany, on the basis of the respective estimated CCC models, taking the inter-bak rate as the instrument and the inflation of 2% as the target. As a result, we find confirmation that inflation-targeting by way of inter-bank rate control, grafted onto the estimated CCC model, would stabilize inflation through structural shifts of the "AS curve", that is, the path of realizations in the output-inflation space.Macroeconomics and monetary economics, Monetary transmission mechanisms, Structural cointegration models, Italian economy, German economy

Helix surfaces in the special linear group

We characterize helix surfaces (constant angle surfaces) in the special linear group $\mathrm{SL}(2,\r)$. In particular, we give an explicit local description of these surfaces in terms of a suitable curve and a 1-parameter family of isometries of $\mathrm{SL}(2,\r)$.Comment: Minor corrections. To appear in Annali di Matematica Pura e Applicata. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1206.127

Biconservative surfaces in BCV-spaces

Biconservative hypersurfaces are hypersurfaces with conservative stress-energy tensor with respect to the bienergy functional, and form a geometrically interesting family which includes that of biharmonic hypersurfaces. In this paper we study biconservative surfaces in the 3-dimensional Bianchi-Cartan-Vranceanu spaces, obtaining their characterization in the following cases: when they form a constant angle with the Hopf vector field; when they are SO(2)-invariant.Comment: 12 page

I colori della città tra permanenza e temporaneità. La materia e le impalcature

Il contributo vuole quindi indagare sulla percezione dello spazio urbano quando esso sia reso più complesso dall’inserimento di impalcature, considerate comunemente strutture provvisorie, funzionali, nella maggior parte dei casi fastidiose alla vista, ingombranti nella mobilità, talvolta rumorose. Ma è solo così che possiamo considerarle

Fiscal and monetary policy, unfortunate events, and the SGP arithmetics - Evidence from a growth-gaps model

The recent revision (March 2005) of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has confirmed the 3% deficit/GDP ratio as the pillar of the excessive deficits procedure envisaged by the Maastricht Treaty for member countries of the EMU. Since the deficit/GDP ceiling is still in place, research on its implications for fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stabilization has to be pushed further. We argue that the agenda largely involves empirical matters. In particular, this paper presents an econometric estimate and simulations of a macroeconomic model of Italy and Germany aimed at addressing three issues. First, monetary and fiscal rules intercations are explictly modelled and examined in dynamic setting. Second, consistently with common perception and the new formulation of the SGP, the business cycle and the responses of policy variables are cast in terms of growth gaps, not gaps in levels, with respect to potential. Third, budgetary components (primary expenditure and total tax revenue) are examined as separate fiscal rules, which allows us to track the reaction of the fiscal stance to growth shocks more precisely, to point out several pitfalls in current measures of fiscal ratios to GDP, and suggest more accurate assessment of fiscal stances.Fiscal policy, Stability and Growth Pact