Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997-2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51±0.17Pg carbon-less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming

Appendix H. Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Carex scabrirostris.

Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Carex scabrirostris

Appendix A. Change rate of soil temperature at 5 cm per day before 10 August since soil temperature at 5 cm was more than 0°C continuously for 5 days under different years and different elevation gradients.

Change rate of soil temperature at 5 cm per day before 10 August since soil temperature at 5 cm was more than 0°C continuously for 5 days under different years and different elevation gradients

Appendix F. Relationships of the differences of first flowering date and annual soil temperature differences between transferred and original sites for different plant species.

Relationships of the differences of first flowering date and annual soil temperature differences between transferred and original sites for different plant species

Appendix B. Diagram of the landscape and experimental sites, transfer process, and monitoring.

Diagram of the landscape and experimental sites, transfer process, and monitoring

Appendix G. Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Kobresia humilis.

Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Kobresia humilis

Appendix I. Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Potentilla anserine.

Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Potentilla anserine

Appendix K. Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Poa pratensis.

Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Poa pratensis

Appendix E. Relationships of the differences of first flowering date between transferred and original sites and annual mean air temperature differences for different plant species.

Relationships of the differences of first flowering date between transferred and original sites and annual mean air temperature differences for different plant species

Appendix L. Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Stipa aliena.

Diagnostic plots for the regression of first flower date to soil temperature in Stipa aliena