Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market

We empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, we use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. We show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households that borrow on home equity lines of credit worsens along both observable and unobservable dimensions. This is an interesting example of a type of dynamic adverse selection that can worsen the risk characteristics of new lending, and suggests another avenue by which the precautionary demand for liquidity may affect borrowing.Home equity loan;adverse selection;liquidity;consumption;housing finance

Basic self-disturbances related to reduced anterior cingulate volume in subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis

Introduction: Alterations of the “pre-reflective” sense of first-person perspective (e.g., of the “basic self”) are characteristic features of schizophrenic spectrum disorders and are significantly present in the prodromal phase of psychosis and in subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR). Studies in healthy controls suggest that neurobiological substrate of the basic self involves cortical midline structures, such as the anterior and posterior cingulate cortices. Neuroimaging studies have identified neuroanatomical cortical midline structure abnormalities in schizophrenic spectrum disorders. Objectives: i) To compare basic self-disturbances levels in UHR subjects and controls and ii) to assess the relationship between basic self-disturbances and alterations in cortical midline structures volume in UHR subjects. Methods: Thirty-one UHR subjects (27 antipsychotic-naïve) and 16 healthy controls were assessed using the 57-item semistructured Examination of Anomalous Self-Experiences (EASE) interview. All subjects were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 3 T, and gray matter volume was measured in a priori defined regions of interest (ROIs) in the cortical midline structures. Results: EASE scores were much higher in UHR subjects than controls (p < 0.001). The UHR group had smaller anterior cingulate volume than controls (p = 0.037). There were no structural brain imaging alterations between UHR individuals with or without self-disturbances. Within the UHR sample, the subgroup with higher EASE scores had smaller anterior cingulate volumes than UHR subjects with lower EASE scores and controls (p = 0.018). In the total sample, anterior cingulate volume was inversely correlated with the EASE score (R = 0.52, p < 0.016). Conclusions: Basic self-disturbances in UHR subjects appear to be related to reductions in anterior cingulate volume

Forecasting U.S. Home Foreclosures with an Index of Internet Keyword Searches

Finding data to feed into financial and risk management models can be challenging. Many analysts attribute a lack of data or quality information as a contributing factor to the worldwide financial crises that seems to have begun in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In this paper, a new source of data, key word search statistics recently available from Google, are applied in a experiment to develop a short-term forecasting model for the number of foreclosures in the U.S. housing market. The keyword search data significantly improves forecast of foreclosures, suggesting that this data can be useful for financial risk management. More generally, the new data source shows promise for a variety of financial and market analyses

Radiologic Measurements in the Assessment of Patellar Instability: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: Numerous diagnostic imaging measurements related to patellar instability have been evaluated in the literature; however, little has been done to compare these findings across multiple studies. Purpose: To review the different imaging measurements used to evaluate patellar instability and to assess the prevalence of each measure and its utility in predicting instability. We focused on reliability across imaging modalities and between patients with and without patellar instability. Study Design: Systematic review; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: We performed a systematic review of the literature using the PubMed, SCOPUS, and Cochrane databases. Each database was searched for variations of the terms patellar instability, patellar dislocation, trochlear dysplasia, radiographic measures, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging. Studies were included if they were published after May 1, 2009, and before May 1, 2019. A meta-analysis using a random effects model was performed on several measurements, comparing instability and control groups to generate pooled values. Results: A total of 813 articles were identified, and 96 articles comprising 7912 patients and 106 unique metrics were included in the analysis. The mean patient age was 23.1 years (95% CI, 21.1-24.5), and 41% were male. The tibial tubercle–trochlear groove (TT-TG) distance was the most frequently included metric (59 studies), followed by the Insall-Salvati ratio and Caton-Deschamps index (both 26 studies). The interobserver intraclass correlation coefficients were excellent or good for the TT-TG distance and Insall-Salvati ratio in 100% of studies reporting them; however, for the Caton-Deschamps index and Blackburne-Peel ratio, they were excellent or good in only 43% and 40% of studies. Pooled magnetic resonance imaging values for TT-TG distance (P \u3c .01), Insall-Salvati ratio (P = .01), and femoral sulcus angle (P = .02) were significantly different between the instability and control groups. Values for tibial tubercle–posterior cruciate ligament distance (P = .36) and Caton-Deschamps index (P = .09) were not significantly different between groups. Conclusion: The most commonly reported measurements for evaluating patellar instability assessed patellar tracking and trochlear morphology. The TT-TG distance was the most common measurement and was greater in the patellar instability group as compared with the control group. In addition, the TT-TG, tibial tubercle-posterior cruciate ligament, and patellar tendon-trochlear groove distances were highly reproducible measurements for patellar tracking, and the Insall-Salvati ratio had superior reproducibility for assessing patellar height

Towards a Standard Psychometric Diagnostic Interview for Subjects at Ultra High Risk of Psychosis: CAARMS versus SIPS.

Background. Several psychometric instruments are available for the diagnostic interview of subjects at ultra high risk (UHR) of psychosis. Their diagnostic comparability is unknown. Methods. All referrals to the OASIS (London) or CAMEO (Cambridgeshire) UHR services from May 13 to Dec 14 were interviewed for a UHR state using both the CAARMS 12/2006 and the SIPS 5.0. Percent overall agreement, kappa, the McNemar-Bowker χ (2) test, equipercentile methods, and residual analyses were used to investigate diagnostic outcomes and symptoms severity or frequency. A conversion algorithm (CONVERT) was validated in an independent UHR sample from the Seoul Youth Clinic (Seoul). Results. There was overall substantial CAARMS-versus-SIPS agreement in the identification of UHR subjects (n = 212, percent overall agreement = 86%; kappa = 0.781, 95% CI from 0.684 to 0.878; McNemar-Bowker test = 0.069), with the exception of the brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) subgroup. Equipercentile-linking table linked symptoms severity and frequency across the CAARMS and SIPS. The conversion algorithm was validated in 93 UHR subjects, showing excellent diagnostic accuracy (CAARMS to SIPS: ROC area 0.929; SIPS to CAARMS: ROC area 0.903). Conclusions. This study provides initial comparability data between CAARMS and SIPS and will inform ongoing multicentre studies and clinical guidelines for the UHR psychometric diagnostic interview.Peer Reviewe