International Business Cycle Accounting

In this paper, I extend the business cycle accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) to a two-country international business cycle model and quantify the effect of the disturbances in relevant markets on the business cycle correlation between Japan and the US over the 1980-2008 period. I find that disturbances in the labor market and production efficiency are important in accounting for the recent increase in the cross-country output correlation. Financial globalization can be the cause of the recent increase in cross-country output correlation if it operated through an increase in the cross-country correlation of disturbances in the labor market and production efficiency, not in the domestic or international capital markets

A Neoclassical Analysis of the Postwar Japanese Economy

Two key features of the postwar Japanese economy are the delay of catch up during the 50s followed by rapid economic growth during the 60s and early 70s and the consistent decline in labor supply during the rapid growth period. A standard neoclassical growth model can quantitatively account for the Japanese postwar growth patterns of capital, output, consumption and investment taking the destruction of capital stock during the war and postwar TFP growth as given. The decline in labor can be explained by strong income effects caused by subsistence consumption during the rapidly growing period.E13, O40

Accounting for Japanese Business Cycles: a Quest for Labor Wedges

A key feature of the Japanese business cycles over the 1980- 2007 period is that the fluctuation of total hours worked leads the fluctuation of output. A canonical real business cycle model cannot account for this fact. This paper uses the business cycle accounting method introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) and shows that labor market distortions are important in accounting for the this feature of the Japanese labor supply fluctuation. I further discuss fundamental economic shocks that manifest themselves as labor wedges and assess their impacts on labor fluctuation.Business Cycle Accounting, Japanese Labor Market

A Neoclassical Analysis of the Asian Crisis: Business Cycle Accounting of a Small Open Economy

This paper applies the business cycle accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) to a standard neoclassical small open economy model and assesses the recent crises in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Thailand. The key common features of these crises are the sudden output collapses and consumption drops as large as the output drops. Quantitative results show that the sudden drops in total factor productivity are important in explaining the output drops. Distortions in the foreign debt market are important in Korea and Thailand whereas distortions in the domestic capital market are important in Hong Kong and Singapore in explaining the large consumption drops.Business Cycle Accounting, Small Open Economy, Asian Crisis

The Credit Spread and U.S. Business Cycles

In this paper, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in order to investigate the impact of credit spread shocks on the U.S. business cycle. We find that the shocks to the investment specific technology and the preference weights on consumption and leisure are the main sources of output fluctuation. Shocks to the credit spread and productivity are the main source of the fluctuation in the investment to output ratio. Credit spread shocks also had a significant impact on the output during the recent financial crisis

Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period

In this paper, we analyze the International Great Depression in the US and Western Europe using the business cycle accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (CKM 2007). We extend the business cycle accounting model by incorporating endogenous factor utilization which turns out to be an important transmission mechanism of the disturbances in the economy. Our main findings are that in the US labor wedges account for roughly half of the drop in output while efficiency and investment wedges each account for a quarter of it during the 1929-1933 period while in Western Europe labor wedges account for more than one-third of the output drop and efficiency, government and investment wedges are responsible for the remaining during the 1929-1932 period. Our findings are consistent with several strands of existing descriptive and empirical literature on the International Great Depression

A Comparative Estimation of Financial Frictions in Japan and Korea

We apply the Business Cycle Accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007) to the Japanese and the Korean economy and quantitatively analyze the effects of financial frictions during the recent recessions. First, we compute exogenous distor- tions in the financial, government purchases, labor, and production markets. The preliminary results show that the sudden drop in production efficiency (TFP) was the main reason of the Korean recession while the increase in labor market distortions was the main reason of the Japanese slump. Next, we orthogonalize the innovations to the distortions and quantify the maximum spill-over effects of financial frictions on output fluctuations in both countries following Christiano and Davis (2006). Our results imply that financial frictions may have been important in explaining the recessions in both countries through their effects on TFP and labor market distortions

Accounting for Japanese Business Cycles: A Quest for Labor Wedges

The Japanese business cycle from 1980 to 2007 portrays a less contemporaneous correlation of labor with output than in the United States, and in addition labor tends to lead output by one quarter. A canonical real business cycle model cannot account for these facts. This paper uses the business cycle accounting method following Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007) and shows that ef?ciency and labor market distortions are important in accounting for the quarterly business cycle ?uctuation patterns in Japan. Fiscal and monetary variables such as labor income tax, money growth, and interest rates cannot fully account for the distortions in the Japanese labor market

How well can business cycle accounting account for business cycles?

The business cycle accounting method introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) is a useful tool to decompose business cycle fluctuations into their contributing factors. However, the model estimated by the maximum likelihood method cannot replicate business cycle moments computed from data. Moment-based estimation might be an attractive alternative if the purpose of the research is to study business cycle properties such as volatility, persistence and cross-correlation of variables instead of a specific business cycle episode

Working Effort and the Japanese Business Cycle

A well known fact of Japanese business cycles discussed in studies such as Ohkusa and Ariga (1995) is that the labor adjustment is done more in the intensive margin (hours worked per worker) rather than in the extensive margin (employment), which is the opposite to the U.S. Moreover, as shown in Braun, Esteban-Pretel, Okada and Sudo (2006) , the fluctuation of hours worked per worker leads the business cycle while the fluctuation of the number of workers lags it. In this paper, I show that a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with effort, productivity, and investment specific technology shocks can account for these facts