Decentralized Targeting of Agricultural Credit Programs: Private versus Political Intermediaries

We compare two different methods of appointing a local commission agent as an intermediary for a credit program. In the Trader-Agent Intermediated Lending Scheme (TRAIL), the agent was a randomly selected established private trader, while in the Gram Panchayat-Agent Intermediated-Lending Scheme (GRAIL), he was randomly chosen from nominations by the elected village council. More TRAIL loans were taken up, but repayment rates were similar, and TRAIL loans had larger average impacts on borrowers’ farm incomes. The majority of this difference in impacts is due to differences in treatment effects conditional on farmer productivity, rather than differences in borrower selection patterns. The findings can be explained by a model where TRAIL agents increased their middleman profits by helping more able treated borrowers reduce their unit costs and increase output. In contrast, for political reasons GRAIL agents monitored the less able treated borrowers and reduced their default risk.Funding was provided by the Australian Agency for International Development, the International Growth Centre,United States Agency for International Development, the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (GRF 16503014) and the HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS15BM05).44, 18 p

Management Forecast Accuracy and Loan Contracts

May 2019, Revised in January 2020本研究は業績予想の正確度と融資契約の関係を検証している．検証の結果，業績予想の正確度が高い企業ほど貸出スプレッドが低いことが確認されている．また，業績予想の正確度が高い企業ほど貸出期間が長いことがわかっている．さらに，業績予想の正確度と貸出スプレッドとの関係性は，メインバンクのいない企業よりもいる企業の方が弱くなることが明らかとなっている．最後に，機関投資家持株比率の高い企業ほど，業績予想の正確度と貸出スプレッドとの関係性は弱くなることが確認されている．これらの検証結果は，銀行は融資条件を決定する際に業績予想情報を利用していること，また融資銀行が融資先のメインバンクではない場合や経営者が債権者を犠牲にして株主の富を優先するような動機を有していない場合にその利用度が高くなる傾向にあることを示している．This study examines the relation between to management forecast accuracy and lona contracts. I provide evidence that firms providing more accurate management forecasts obtain more favorable loan contrat terms, such as lower loan sperads, and longer term maurity. I then find that the relation between management forecast accuracy and loan spread is weaker for firms with a main bank. Finally, I show that that the relation between management forecast accuracy and loan spread is weaker for firms with more institutional ownership. My findings suggest that banks utilize the information contained in management earnings forecasts when making lending decsions, and the utilization of management earnings forecasts is higher for firms without a main bank or lower agency costs of debt.39

Effects of multilevel policy mix of public R&D subsidies: Empirical evidence from Japanese local SMEs

First Draft:March 2019; This Version:January 2020Regional innovation policies have been implemented in several countries. In Japan, the controlled decentralization of traditionally centralized innovation policy is ongoing. Thus, we can observe the multilevel policy mix of public R&D (research and development) subsidies by national, prefecture, and city governments. However, empirical studies on multilevel R&D support, using panel data and considering the municipality level, are scarce. Based on original survey data and on the financial data for manufacturing SMEs (small and medium sized enterprises), we estimate their TFP (total factor productivity) and we empirically investigate the effects of public R&D subsidies by national, prefecture, and city governments. We employ firm-level fixed effect panel estimation to control for the effects of any unobservable time-invariant factors. We find that, with a two year lag, city and prefecture subsidies show positive and significant effects on TFP, which also persisted after the subsidy period. However, multilevel subsidies, especially those involving city subsidies, additionally and persistently increase recipients’ TFP. These results suggest significant advantages for the multilevel policy mix, especially those involving the city subsidy.35 p

Does education secularize the Islamic population? The effect of years of schooling on religiosity, voting, and pluralism in Indonesia

The association between schooling and religious beliefs has been widely documented in the social science literature. Evidence of a causal relationship is, however, limited, particularly in developing countries where religion still plays a significant role in politics and legislation. To bridge this gap in the literature, the present study uses the across cohort variations in the exposure to 1978 education reform in Indonesia to examine the impact of completed years of education on individual religiosity in later life. The results suggest that attaining another year of schooling reduces self-reported religiousness by four percentage points. Consistent with this finding, it also changes solitary religious acts by reducing the number of times individuals pray and the likelihood that they eat only halal food. Educational attainment, however, has little effect on participation in social religious activities or attitude toward other faiths, although it does reduce the religious influence on voting behavior. These results suggest that a program promoting educational attainment in Islamic countries may have an important impact on individual’s religiosity and country’s political economy in the long run.Highlight：・Evidence of a causal relationship between individual education and religiosity is limited in developing countries ・We use the 1978 education reform in Indonesia to examine the impact of completed years of education on religiosity in later life ・An additional year of schooling reduces self-reported religiousness and solitary religious acts ・It also reduces the influence of religious factors on voting when they elect the local leaders and the president ・Reform, which promotes the access to education, may have an externality on the political economy in Islamic countries.31, [4] p

医療法人歯科診療所における財務実態への法人属性の影響力 : 法人属性を説明変数とする回帰分析

2020年1月10日版歯科診療所を経営する医療法人において, その法人の多拠点化状況や社団持分有無, 設立年, 土地所有状況, 資産額規模, 収益額規模という各種法人属性が, 法人の財務実態に有意な影響を与えているのかどうか, また相対的に強い影響を与えている法人属性は何かを各属性間の影響を統制しつつ分析した。その結果, 以下の諸点が明らかとなった。 ① 土地部分所有ダミーを除く各種法人属性は, 事業利益率に影響を与えている。設立年と総資産額の事業利益率向上への影響力や, 3拠点以上型であることの事業利益率低下への影響力が相対的に強い。 ② 土地所有状況のダミーを除く各種法人属性は, 赤字であることに影響を与えている。設立年と事業収益額の赤字回避への影響力が特に強く, また3拠点以上型であることの赤字化への影響力も相対的に強い。 ③ 多拠点系のダミーや総資産額, 土地所有ダミーは, 自己資本比率に影響を与えている。総資産額の自己資本比率向上への影響力や, 2拠点型や3拠点以上型であることの自己資本比率低下への影響力が, 相対的に強い。 ④ 土地所有状況のダミーを除く各種法人属性は, 債務超過であることに影響を与えている。2拠点型や3拠点以上型であることの債務超過化への影響力が相対的に特に強い。 ⑤ 分析対象としたすべての法人属性が, 総資産回転率（資産利用効率性）に影響を与えている。総資産額の効率性低下への影響力と事業収益額の効率性向上への影響力が突出して強い。 ⑥ 土地部分所有ダミーと総資産額を除く各種法人属性は, 総資産事業利益率（資産収益性）に影響を与えている。設立年と事業収益額の資産収益性向上への影響力が相対的に強い。 ⑦ いずれの回帰分析においても決定係数は大きくなく, 各財務指標に影響を与えている要因は, 分析対象とした各種法人属性以外にも多数あることに注意が必要である。 ⑧ 本稿で明らかにした各種法人属性の財務実態への影響状況は, あくまでも, ほとんどの歯科診療所が管理会計を活用していない現状の下での, 法人属性と財務実態との関係性である点に留意が必要である。24

医療法人歯科診療所の財務実態 : 法人属性別分析

2020年1月6日版診療所等の財務実態を正しく把握することは, 地域医療の持続性を確保するうえで不可欠だが, 従来, その実態は, 『医療経済実態調査』などでも十分には明らかにされていない。そこで筆者は, 診療所等を対象に, その経営類型に着目しつつ財務実態を明らかにした（荒井, 2020）。また医科診療所に限定して, 経営類型以外の各種法人属性の観点からの実態も明らかにした。しかし紙面の都合から, 歯科診療所に限定した同様の実態分析の結果は, 荒井(2020a)に収載できなかった。そこで本稿では, 歯科診療所のみを経営している法人に焦点を当てて, 経営類型以外の各種法人属性（法形態, 設立年代, 土地・建物所有状況, 資産額規模, 収益額規模, 所在都道府県）の観点からの種類区分別の財務実態を明らかにする。主要な分析結果は, 以下のとおりである。① どの利益率でも赤字法人割合でも, 社団持分なしの方が持分ありよりも採算性が良い。自己資本比率では持分有無による差はないが, 債務超過法人割合では社団持分ありの方が健全性が悪い。資産の利用効率性及び収益性は, 社団持分なしの方が高い。② 設立後経過年数が短い新しい法人群ほど, 事業利益率は高く, 赤字回避率も高い。自己資本比率には設立年代による傾向はないが, 債務超過法人割合は設立年代が古い法人群ほど高く, 健全性が悪い傾向がある。資産の利用効率性も収益性も, 設立年代が古い法人群ほど悪くなっている。③ どの利益率でも赤字法人割合でも, 土地や建物の所有状況による差はない。また土地では自己資本比率でも債務超過法人割合でも部分所有法人群が一番良い一方, 建物では自己資本比率では全部所有法人群が一番悪く, 債務超過法人割合では有意差はない。資産の利用効率性や収益性は, 土地でも建物でも賃借法人群の方が良い。④ 資産額規模でも収益額規模でも, どの利益率でも赤字回避率でも, 規模が大きいほど採算性が良い傾向(規模の経済)が見られる。またどちらの規模別でも, 自己資本比率でも債務超過法人割合でも, 規模が大きいほど健全性が良くなる傾向がある。資産の利用効率性は, 資産額規模が大きいほど低下（収穫逓減の法則が作用）している一方, 収益額規模については零細規模法人を除けば規模による大きな違いはない。資産収益性は, どちらの規模別でも規模が大きくなるにつれて高まる傾向が見られる。⑤ 各側面の財務実態を示すどの財務指標でも, 都道府県による大きな違いが確認された。⑥ 本稿で明らかにしたいずれの財務実態も, ほとんどの歯科診療所が管理会計を適切に活用していない現状の下での実態である点に, 留意が必要である。31

Forward Variable Selection for Sparse Ultra-High Dimensional Generalized Varying Coefficient Models

In this paper we propose a forward variable selection procedure for feature screening in ultra-high dimensional generalized varying coefficient models. We employ regression spline to approximate coefficient functions and then maximize the log-likelihood to select an additional relevant covariate sequentially. If we decide we do not significantly improve the log-likelihood any more by selecting any new covariates from our stopping rule, we terminate the forward procedure and give our estimate of relevant covariates. The effect of the size of the current model has been overlooked in stopping rules for sequential procedures for high-dimensional models. Our stopping rule takes into account the size of the current model suitably. Our forward procedure has screening consistency and some other desirable properties under regularity conditions. We also present the results of numerical studies to show its good finite sample performances.46, [19] p

Employment Protection and M&A Performance: Evidence from International Data

本稿では，M&A のターゲット企業の所在国の法制度によって労働者の権利が強く保護されていると，M&A 後の円滑な組織や事業の最適化のためのリストラクチャリングが困難になり，M&A 発表時の株価効果とM&A 後の業績が相対的に低下するとの仮説を検証している．本稿では，雇用調整の困難度に関する複数の指標を用い，ターゲット企業選択に関するセレクションバイアスを考慮した分析を行い，ターゲット企業の所在国の労働者保護が強いほどM&A 発表時の株価リターン及び買収後の短期間の業績が相対的に悪いことを確認した．この結果は，各国における労働者保護に関する法制度の在り方が，M&A 後の組織最適化行動への影響を通してターゲット企業の選択と価値創造の両方に影響を与えることを示す．This study empirically examines a hypothesis that, post mergers and acquisitions（M&A）integration, reorganizations and restructurings become difficult when employees of target firms are strongly protected by labor law and regulations in the target countries, affecting both selection of target firms and value creation from the acquisitions. Consistent with the hypothesis, our empirical results show that when employees in the target countries enjoy a strong legal protection, the stock return at the time of deal announcement and the operating performance of the acquirers in the post-acquisition period worsens. The results are robust even when different kinds of indexes of employment protection are used and selection bias of target firms is considered

Reconstruction of Permission from a Legal Perspective

This paper discusses the tentative reconstruction of permission from a legal perspective, and a legal criterion that can differentiate various permissions by introducing a distinction between possession and title. Under private law, the possessor is free to act within his or her territory, while the creditor is subject to various restrictions under contract law in relation to others. In response to the logic of private law, permission by an administrative agency will also be differentiated. That is to say, in the former, there is a substantial danger to being subject to the permission system, but in the latter, the regulation from the viewpoint of establishing a public space in which private persons can connect, the relation can be accepted more widely