Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

Economic tomography: the possibility to anticipate and respond to socio-economic crises

The article discusses an approach based on an original hypothesis related to the peculiarities of Russia’s development (on the one hand, its scale, the Russian mentality and a certain closeness of the economy; on the other hand, a significant dominant resource and human potential, and, as a consequence, a genuine role in the global economic community), the diagnosis of which (at the level of the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas) can be used to identify crises, provide an early assessment of threats to socio-economic development of regions as well as help to evaluate the state of the region over a 3 to 5 year period. In other words, in order to ensure that executives have enough time to mount a sufficiently rapid response to the crises and administrative errors and to reduce the impact of emerging threats. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical and methodological tools for the recognition of the early stages of emerging threats, allowing fewer losses to be experienced during the crisis period. Simulation experiments were carried out for the purpose of classifying previously occurring social and economic crises (9 possible variants were reviewed) and mathematically processed trajectories of change in the main indicators for the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas, taking the influence of various factors into account. On the basis of the authors’ proposed approach (referred to as economic tomography) an attempt is made to comprehensively assess the state of sample representative regions of Russia.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project № 14–18–00574 'Information-analytical system "Anticrisis:" diagnostics of the regions, threat assessment and scenario forecasting for the preservation and strengthening of economic security and well-being of Russia')

Рентгенохирургия ятрогенного повреждения желчных протоков после лапароскопической холецистэктомии (опыт одного центра)

IM OF STUDY To show the possibilities of antegrade X-ray surgical techniques in the treatment of iatrogenic bile duct injuries after videolaparoscopic cholecystectomy.MATERIAL AND METHODS The study included 24 patients with “minor” and 20 patients with “major” (according to Strasberg) iatrogenic injuries of the extrahepatic biliary tract. Antegrade endobiliary intervention was performed in 26 patients, including the “bridge-procedure” variant preceding the reconstructive surgery. Endobiliary drains were maintained during the reconstructive surgery and in the early postoperative period to control the viability of the anastomosis.When a stricture of the biliodigestive anastomosis (BDA) was detected, balloon dilatation of the anastomotic area was performed. In the subgroup of “minor” injuries, external drainage of the subhepatic biloma in 18 people were supplemented with endoscopic papillotomy in 12 cases.RESULTS In all patients with “minor” injuries of the biliary tree, X-ray surgical techniques were effective. In 11 patients with “major” bile duct injuries, cholangiostomy drainage was gradually transformed into external-internal drainage. In 2 trauma cases of classes D and E temporary antegrade stenting of the duct injury area with a coated self-expanding endobiliary stent was performed. The follow-up period after removal of the antegrade frame drainage ranged from 8 months to 14 years. There were no stricture or failure of BDA.CONCLUSION Short-term external biliary drainage, including the use of rendezvous techniques, may be suffi cient to eliminate the failure of the cystic duct stump. Cholangiostomy drainage, temporary endobiliary stent allow preparing the patient for reconstructive intervention. Drainage marking of the damaged area facilitates the verifi cation of tubular structures in the reconstruction area. Preservation of drainage after reconstructive intervention is the prevention of failure of the biliodigestive anastomosis in the early postoperative period, the development of its stricture in the long term.ЦЕЛЬ Показать возможности антеградных рентгенхирургических методик в лечении ятрогенных по­вреждений желчных протоков после видеолапароскопической холецистэктомии.МАТЕРИАЛ И МЕТОДЫ В исследование включены 24 пациента с «малыми» и 20 пациентов с «большими» (по Strasberg) ятрогенными повреждениями внепеченочных желчных путей. Антеградное эндобилиарное вмешательство было выполнено 26 пациентам, в том числе в варианте “bridge-procedure”, предшествовавшем реконструктивной операции. Эндобилиарные дренажи сохранялись во время рекон­структивной операции и в раннем послеоперационном периоде для контроля состоятельности анастомоза. При выявлении стриктуры билиодигестивного анастомоза (БДА) выполняли баллонную дилатацию зоны анастомоза. В подгруппе «малых» повреждений наружное дренирование подпеченочной биломы у 18 человек было дополнено эндоскопической папиллотомией в 12 наблюдениях.РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ У всех пациентов с «малыми» повреждениями желчного дерева рентгенохирургические методики оказались эффективными. У 11 пациентов с «большими» повреждениями желчных протоков холангиостомический дренаж этапно был трансформирован в наружно-внутренний. В 2 наблюдениях при травме классы D и Е использовали временное антеградное стентирование зоны повреждения протоков покрытым саморасширяющимся эндобилиарным стентом. Сроки наблюдения после удаления антеградного каркасного дренажа составили от 8 месяцев до 14 лет. Стриктуры и несостоятельности БДА отмечено не было.ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ Кратковременное наружное билиарное дренирование, в том числе с применением «рандеву методик», может оказаться достаточным для устранения несостоятельности культи пузырного протока. Холангиостомический дренаж, временный эндобилиарный стент позволяют подготовить пациента к реконструктивному вмешательству. Дренажная маркировка зоны повреждения облегчает верификацию трубчатых структур в области реконструкции. Сохранение дренажа после реконструктивного вмешательства является профилактикой несостоятельности билиодигестивного анастомоза в раннем послеоперационном периоде, развития его стриктуры в отдаленные сроки

Selective deposition of polycrystalline diamond films using photolithography with addition of nanodiamonds as nucleation centers

A new method of selective deposition of polycrystalline diamond has been developed and studied. The diamond coatings with a complex, predetermined geometry and resolution up to 5 [mu]m were obtained. A high density of polycrystallites in the coating area was reached (up to 32·10{7} pcs/cm{2}). The uniformity of the film reached 100%, and the degree of the surface contamination by parasitic crystals did not exceed 2%. The technology was based on the application of the standard photolithography with an addition of nanodiamond suspension into the photoresist that provided the creation of the centers of further nucleation in the areas which require further overgrowth. The films were deposited onto monocrystalline silicon substrates using the method of "hot filaments" in the CVD reactor. The properties of the coating and the impact of the nanodiamond suspension concentration in the photoresist were also studied. The potential use of the given method includes a high resolution, technological efficiency, and low labor costs compared to the standard methods (laser treatment, chemical etching in aggressive environments)

Mechanism of transition to turbulence in a circular cylinder wake in a channel

© 2017 The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. Transition to turbulence in the circular cylinder wake has been studied experimentally and numerically at growing Reynolds number. Good agreement of calculation results with the flow visualization and measurements of instantaneous vector fields of velocity and vorticity has been demonstrated. The growing Reynolds number is shown to make large-scale vortex generation onset move upstream. It also triggers the transition to 3D flow pattern in the cylinder wake. This process is accompanied by non-monotonous behavior of the profiles of velocity and its turbulent fluctuations at equal distances from the cylinder. Non-monotonous behavior of the cylinder drag has been revealed for the Reynolds numbers ranging from 120 to 300

Применение моделей вероятностных ситуаций на железной дороге

The article describes application of models of information probabilistic situations for solving problems of traffic control on the railway. The content of situational control is revealed. The difference between a visual and a «blind» situation during vehicle’s movement is shown.The information situation around a moving object can be deterministic and stochastic. The concept of a stochastic information control situation is introduced. The choice of alternatives in stochastic control situations is characterized by organizational, technological, and informational uncertainties.This motivates development of control methods and algorithms that consider uncertainty and multicriteria in control of moving objects in such situations. Situational control can be used in automated, cyber-physical and intelligent control.The article proposes a model for controlling mobile objects based on a probabilistic approach in a stochastic situation and on the consideration of a number of stochastic factors. The model is based on calculating the probability of existence of an obstacle in the path of a vehicle. Such a model can be used under the conditions of poor visibility and a probability of receiving erroneous information from sensors. The article gives a systematics of the probabilistic characteristics of a stochastic information situation accompanying a moving object. The application of dichotomous and oppositional analysis in studying obstacles on the route has been substantiated. The model for detecting a foreign object on a traffic route is based on the assumption of the presence of reliable and erroneous information. The analysis is based on Dempster–Schafer theory. The stochastic information situation model uses the probabilistic characteristics of the presence of an obstacle on the track. The probability of an object’s existence is estimated using Bayes’ theorem. The proposed model considers three factors of the stochastic situation: informational uncertainty in the signal; false signals, sensor measurement error. The field of application of this situational model comprises digital railway, intelligent transport systems, transport cyber-physical systems.Статья описывает применение моделей информационных вероятностных ситуаций для решения задач управления движением на железной дороге. Раскрывается содержание ситуационного управления. Показано различие между визуальной и «слепой» ситуацией при движении транспорта.Информационная ситуация вокруг подвижного объекта может быть детерминированной и стохастической. Вводится понятие «стохастическая управленческая информационная ситуация». Выбор альтернатив в стохастических управленческих ситуациях характеризуется организационной, технологической и информационной неопределённостями. Это мотивирует разработку методов и алгоритмов управления, учитывающих неопределённость и многокритериальность при управлении подвижными объектами в таких ситуациях. Ситуационное управление может быть использовано в автоматизированном, кибер-физическом и интеллектуальном управлении.Статья предлагает модель управления подвижными объектами, основанную на вероятностном подходе в стохастической ситуации и учёте ряда стохастических факторов. Модель основана на расчёте вероятности существования препятствия на пути движения транспортного объекта. Такая модель может применяться в условиях плохой видимости и возможности получения ошибочной информации от датчиков. Статья даёт систематику вероятностных характеристик стохастической информационной ситуации, сопровождающей подвижный объект. Обосновано применение дихотомического и оппозиционного анализа при изучении препятствий на трассе движения. Модель обнаружения постороннего объекта на трассе движения строится на предположении наличия достоверной и ошибочной информации. В качестве основы анализа используется теория Демпстера–Шафера. Модель стохастической информационной ситуации использует вероятностные характеристики наличия препятствия на трассе. Вероятность существования объекта оценивается с помощью теоремы Байеса. Предлагаемая модель учитывает три фактора стохастической ситуации: информационную неопределённость в сигнале, ложные сигналы, погрешность измерений датчиков. Область применения данной ситуационной модели: цифровая железная дорога, интеллектуальные транспортные системы, транспортные кибер-физические системы

Развилки углеродного регулирования

There are 1800 climate change laws around the world. In recent years, the rapid increase in carbon emissions has caused global warming and climate pollution, causing serious harm to social development and human health. Reducing carbon emissions is getting a lot of attention. Since the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, many countries have made efforts to reduce carbon emissions.The article describes the international processes intended to adopt regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, including the regulated market for quotas and the voluntary market for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The emphasis is on European and Russian quota mechanisms. The stages of development of transborder carbon regulation in the EU are highlighted. It is noted that in Russia, the leader in application of ESG criteria is JSC Russian Railways, as a company that is consistently pursuing the transition to implementing the principles of sustainable development.The conclusions on international trends in development of carbon regulation are followed by proposals on solutions regarding problematic aspects of the new Russian carbon legislation. According to the authors, the target scenario remains the transition to a new technological structure ensuring a real reducing the carbon footprint.В мире существует 1800 законов об изменении климата. В последние годы стремительный рост выбросов углерода вызвал глобальное потепление и загрязнение климата, что наносит серьезный вред развитию общества и здоровью человека. Сокращение выбросов углерода привлекает большое внимание. После подписания Киотского протокола и Парижского соглашения многие страны предприняли усилия по сокращению выбросов углерода.В статье дано описание международных процессов регулирования парниковых выбросов, в том числе регулируемого рынка квот и добровольного рынка сокращения выбросов парниковых газов. Акцент сделан на европейских и российских механизмах квотирования. Приведены этапы развития трансграничного углеродного регулирования в ЕС. Отмечено, что в России лидером в применении критериев ESG выступает ОАО «РЖД» как компания, которая последовательно осуществляет переход к реализации принципов устойчивого развития.Представлены выводы о международных тенденциях развития углеродного регулирования, а также предложены решения для проблемных аспектов нового российского углеродного законодательства. По мнению авторов, целевым сценарием остается переход на новый технологический уклад с реальным снижением углеродного следа

Pulsating flow past a spanwise rib in a channel at moderate Reynolds numbers

© 2017, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. The results of visual investigations and direct numerical simulation of flow past a spanwise rib in a channel in a pulsating external flow at the Reynolds numbers corresponding to transition to turbulence in the separation region downstream of the rib in steady-state flow past the latter are represented. It is shown that the calculated and experimental data are in the adequate accordance. The effect of the forced unsteadiness parameters on the vortex flow structure downstream of the rib is analyzed. Some laws of the formation and evolution of the vortex structure downstream of the rib in a pulsating flow are obtained