ЭМИГРАЦИЯ ИЗ РОССИИ ПО ДАННЫМ ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОГО СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОГО УЧЕТА

In this article using statistical methods and data from national statistics, is analyzed and studied emigration of Russian citizens abroad for permanent residence. The authors paid a lot of attention to major modern emigration trends, structure of the upstream and main destinations. The study showed that the data of official Russian statistics make it possible to assess the composition of outmigrants: structure by sex and age, education, citizenship, reasons for departure in terms of the related questions, regional specificities of migration, its volume and direction. However, statistical observation of emigration covers only a part of those leaving for permanent residence. Furthermore, on the basis of data from Rosstat, the authors conclude that relatively high emigration indicators are observed in the border regions, as well as in constituent entities with positive macroeconomic indicators. Economic and statistical analysis supports the hypothesis that minimal emigration intensity indicators presented in certain regions, for example, in republics of the North Caucasus, are not common for migration in Russia in general.В статье с применением статистических методов и данных отечественного учета исследуется эмиграция российских граждан за рубеж на постоянное место жительства на основе анализа данных российского статистического учета. Авторами большое внимание уделено основным современным тенденциям эмиграционных процессов, структуре исходящего потока, направлениям выезда. Исследование показало, что данные официальной российской статистики дают возможность оценить качественный состав выезжающих: структуру по полу, возрасту, образованию, гражданству, причинам выезда в разрезе предлагаемых вопросов, региональные особенности миграции, их объемы и направления, однако статистическое наблюдение эмиграции охватывает только часть выезжающих на постоянное место жительства. Также, на основании данных Росстата, авторы делают вывод, что относительно высокие эмиграционные показатели наблюдаются в приграничных регионах и в субъектах, имеющих позитивные макроэкономические показатели. Наименьшие показатели интенсивности эмиграции отмечаются в «депрессивных» в социально-экономическом плане регионах Российской Федерации, в особенности в республиках Северного Кавказа

Antigenic Components of Chemical Bivalent Cholera Vaccine, Methods of their Isolation and Control

The paper presents a review of the data on the methods of isolation and control of Vibrio cholerae antigens – cholerogen-anatoxin and O-antigens of Inaba and Ogawa – components of the oral bivalent chemical cholera vaccine produced by the RusRAPI “Microbe”, the only prophylactic drug against cholera registered in the territory of the Russian Federation. Currently, the vaccine is produced using the method of segregated manufacturing of cholerogenanatoxin and O-antigens Inaba and Ogawa with step-by-step control of their main properties, which ensures the production of a high-quality finished product. Ultrafiltration is an effective method for concentrating a semi-finished product, which helps to reduce losses and increases the yield of the final product. It remains promising to develop a method for gentle steril ization of O-antigens to maximize the preservation of specific activity. To control the specific activity of the antigenic components and the finished vaccine preparation, a complex of in vivo and in vitro methods is applied. However, the multi-stage process and duration, the use of several types of laboratory animals, as well as modern WHO requirements determine the need for the introduction of alternative in vitro control methods. The use of cell cultures as a replacement for the biological method appears prospective, and demonstrates a positive correlation with animal tests. To assess the activity of antigens, the use of an immunochemical method – dot-immunoassay with gold nanoparticles – is put forward, which will make it possible to harmonize the control method at all stages of the production process, as well as to determine the serovar specificity of Vibrio cholerae O-antigens. The development of molecular-genetic, microbiological, immunochemical methods is relevant for a more complete and comprehensive control of the main immunogens of industrial strains of cholera vibrio. The introduction of promising methods for obtaining antigens and monitoring their properties will allow for a more complete characterization of the component composition of the finished dosage form of the chemical cholera vaccine

Воспроизводство трудового потенциала в период депопуляции 2019–2035 гг. и компенсирующая роль миграционного фактора

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth.  Цель работы: рассмотреть динамику воспроизводства трудового потенциала и предложение рабочей силы в России на период до 2035 г. в зависимости от воздействия факторов его воспроизвод­ства: замещения поколений (изменения соотношения численности когорт, входящих и выходящих по возрасту из состава трудового потенциала), рождаемости и смертности населения, миграци­онного сальдо в отдельных возрастных когортах.  Материалы и методы. Введено понятие «замещение поколе­ний». Разработан коэффициент замещения поколений и рассчи­тано его значение для трудового потенциала России на период до 2035 года. Проанализировано влияние факторов естественного движения населения на динамику трудового потенциала. Рас­считана компенсирующая роль фактора миграции в условиях сокращения трудового потенциала. Проведена группировка регионов России по признакам: направление и интенсивность изменения численности населения трудоспособного возраста в 2020–2035 гг. и доля молодежи в возрасте 0–15 лет.  Результаты  – Сокращение и постарение трудового потенциала в период второго этапа депопуляции обусловлено демографическими факторами.  – Прогнозируемое сокращение численности населения трудо­способного возраста во вторую волну депопуляции ожидается в меньших масштабах, чем в первую волну.  – В целом в России будет отмечаться снижение замещения поколений в контингенте лиц трудоспособного возраста.  – Ожидать роста СКР в прогнозном периоде не следует, поскольку до 2030 г. предвидится постепенное сокращение численности женщин репродуктивного возраста.  – На 2020–2025 гг. приходится наиболее глубокий провал в численности населения трудоспособного возраста: по среднему варианту прогноза он составит 1,7 млн чел.  – В прогнозном периоде численность рабочей силы в наиболее продуктивном возрасте 25–39 лет сократится на 10,5 млн чел., а уровень занятости сократится с 65,5% до 63,5%.  – Выявлены региональные особенности формирования спроса и предложения рабочей силы в России по 6 однородным группам регионов.  – Чтобы компенсировать потери необходимо увеличить в 2–2,5 раза миграционный прирост, заложенный в средний вариант прогноза Росстата.  Заключение. Для обеспечения потребностей экономики в рабочей силе в прогнозном периоде необходимо решать две взаимосвязанные задачи: компенсация сокращения трудового потенциала и обеспечение качества трудового потенциала, необходимого для внедрения новых технологий и цифровиза­ции экономики. Неблагополучная ситуация с формированием трудовых ресурсов усугубляется региональными диспропорци­ями в размещении трудового потенциала и различиями в его качестве по территории страны. В перспективе миграция становится вновь единственным источником пополнения тру­дового потенциала и замещения поколений, несмотря на риски качественных потерь за счет эмиграции лиц высокой квалифи­кации и молодежи. Необходимо принятие кардинальных мер по увеличению компенсирующей роли миграции уже в ближайшие пять-шесть лет. При этом, меры миграционной политики должны рассматриваться в тесной увязке с другими мерами по стимулированию рождаемости и снижению смертности, обеспечивая положительное воздействие на компоненты роста численности населения.

Assessment of Stability of Chemical Cholera Vaccine in a New Primary Packaging

The bivalent chemical cholera vaccine is the only drug for the prevention of cholera registered in the Russian Federation. The vaccine has been produced in glass bottles containing 210 tablets. At the same time, modern trends dictate the need to produce the drug in varying dispensing and more practical packaging for the convenience of the consumer.The aim of the work was to study the stability of the properties of the immunobiological medicinal product “Bivalent chemical cholera vaccine” with modified filling and in new primary packaging.Materials and methods. When studying the quality of bivalent chemical cholera vaccine batches, physicochemical parameters, formaldehyde content, specific activity and safety, abnormal toxicity, immunogenicity, and microbiological purity were assessed. Stability in terms of “specific activity” was evaluated using dot immunoassay.Results and discussion. As a result of this work, the use of several dispensing options and new primary packaging of cholera vaccine has been experimentally substantiated. The stability of the finished vaccine preparation has been established in the “accelerated aging” test and during long-term storage. The possibility of using dot immunoassay with a conjugate based on staphylococcal protein A, labeled with colloidal gold, to monitor the stability of cholera vaccine has been experimentally demonstrated

The labor potential reproduction in depopulation period of 2019–2035 and the compensating role of migration

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth

Prevalence of geriatric syndromes in persons over 65 years: the first results of the EVCALIPT study

Aim. To study the prevalence of geriatric syndromes and assess their relationship with senile asthenia in persons aged ³65 years living in Russian regions with different demographic, climatic and socio-economic characteristics.Material and methods. We examined 664 patients aged 65-107 years (mean age, 79±9 years; men, 25%) living in Moscow (n=365) and Voronezh (n=299). All patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric examination, which consisted of two stages: a survey with original questionnaire and an objective examination.Results. The prevalence of senile asthenia was 66,4%, including 47,4% in people aged 65-74, 71,1% — 75-84 years, and 82,8% — ³85 years (p for trend <0,001). Senile asthenia was associated with age (odds ratio (OR), 2,36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1,89-2,93; p<0,001) and female sex (OR, 1,52; 95% CI 1,06-2,18; p=0,024). Patients with senile asthenia had a lower socioeconomic status. Also, close associations of senile asthenia with other geriatric syndromes (dementia, depression, vision and hearing impairment, incontinence, falls, high risk of falls, functional decline, failure to thrive) with OR from 1,32 to 7,22 were revealed.Conclusion. The first results of the EVCALIPT study indicate a high incidence of senile asthenia in persons aged ³65 years and its close association with other geriatric syndromes and socio-economic factors