On Risk Aversion in the Rubinstein Bargaining Game

We derive closed-form solutions for the Rubinstein alternating offers game for cases where the two players have (possibly asymmetric) utility functions that belong to the HARA class and discount the future at a constant rate. We show that risk aversion may increase a bargainers payoff. This result - which contradicts Roth’s 1985 theorem tying greater risk neutrality to a smaller payoff - does not rely on imperfect information or departures from expected utility maximization.

Managing Disagreement to Avoid Confrontation in Sports Talk Radio

In this paper the nature of disagreement in sports talk radio is examined. It is a widely held notion that talk radio in general is an argumentative and disputatious, if not hostile, forum in which people exchange ideas. Using the research methods of conversation analysis, an initial study of disagreement in sports talk radio appears to support that idea – meaning that disagreements are made without the mollifying techniques ordinarily used in face-to-face talk. However, looking at those disagreements more closely reveals that they tend not to devolve into confrontation on sports talk radio programs. This paper focuses on the methods employed by both callers and hosts to achieve this feat and thus demonstrates that the stereotype of talk radio being confrontational and hostile does not apply to the specific genre of sports talk radio

Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa

We examine the properties of alternative monetary policy rules in response to large aid surges in low-income countries characterized by incomplete capital market integration and currency substitution. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that simple monetary rules that stabilize the path of expected future seigniorage for a given aid flow have attractive properties relative to a range of conventional alternatives including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a pure exchange rate float. These simple rules, which are shown to be robust across a range of fiscal responses to aid inflows, appear to be consistent with actual responses to recent aid surges in a range of post-stabilization countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.Basle Committee, capital adequacy, financial governance, financial architecture, financial reform, international standards, capital flows, poor countries, cost of capital, international development

Aid and Fiscal Instability

We show that a combination of temporariness and spending pressure is intrinsic to the aid relationship. In our analysis, recipients rationally discount the pronouncements of donors about the duration of their commitments because in equilibrium they know that some donors will honor those commitments while others will not. Donor types pool in equilibrium; in sharp contrast to conventional signaling situations, there is no separating equilibrium in pure strategies. Moreover, pooling necessarily creates what we call ex ante fiscal instability: expenditure smoothing is perfect ex post if the donor proves permanent, but if the donor is temporary the recipient faces an aid collapse and a fiscal adjustment problem. The Samaritan’s dilemma is at work here, in the guise of a use-it-or-lose-it restriction on spending out of aid. This restriction can produce ex ante fiscal instability even when information is symmetric.Aid, Fiscal instability, Use it or lose it, Samaritan’s dilemma, Pooling

On risk aversion in the Rubinstein bargaining game

We derive closed-form solutions for the Rubinstein alternating offers game for cases where the two players have (possibly asymmetric) utility functions that belong to the HARA class and discount the future at a constant rate. We show that risk aversion may increase a bargainers payoff. This result - which contradicts Roth’s 1985 theorem tying greater risk neutrality to a smaller payoff - does not rely on imperfect information or departures from expected utility maximization

The effect of allowing motorists to opt out of tort law in the United States

Dans le domaine des accidents d'automobile, le droit commun et les législations spéciales font souvent l'objet de critiques aux États-Unis. Une proposition présentement à l'étude permettrait aux automobilistes d'obvier à ces critiques en choisissant le système d'indemnisation qui leur serait applicable. Des projections actuarielles font état d'économies substantielles pour les automobilistes. Ces économies sont cependant en diminution depuis quelques années puisque les montants minimaux obligatoires d'assurance automobile n'ont pas suivi le taux d'inflation. Il en résulte que de plus en plus d'automobilistes, sous le droit commun, se contentent d'une réclamation pour leurs pertes de nature économique.As applied to U.S. traffic accidents, both tort law and no-fault law are often attacked. A proposed solution would allow motorists to choose an option bypassing the inadequacies of both tort law and current U.S. no-fault laws. Actuarial estimates indicate large savings available to motorists so choosing. But as time goes on, the savings are diminished as low required limits of coverage in the U.S. meet inflation, leading not only to admittedly lessened savings but also to the anomaly of more and more motorists in non no-fault states pursuing tort rights for only economic losses

Are Borders Barriers? The Impact of International and Internal Ethnic Borders on Agricultural Markets in West Africa

This paper addresses two important economic issues for Africa: the contribution of national borders and ethnicity to market segmentation and integration between and within countries. Market pair regression analysis provides evidence of higher conditional price dispersion for both a grain and a cash crop between markets separated by the Niger-Nigeria border than between two markets located in the same country. A regressiondiscontinuity analysis also confirms a significant price change at the international border. The international border effect is lower, however, if the cross-border markets share a common ethnicity. Ethnicity is also linked to higher price dispersion within Niger; we find a significant intranational border effect between markets in different ethnic regions of the country. This suggests that ethnic similarities diminishing international border effects could enhance international market integration, and ethnic differences could contribute to intranational market segmentation in sub-Saharan Africa. We provide suggestive evidence that the primary mechanism behind the internal border effect is related to the role of ethnicity in facilitating access to credit in agricultural markets. We argue that the results are not driven by differences in price volatility or observables across borders.Africa, border effects, agriculture, regression discontinuity design

UV-Optical Pixel Maps of Face-On Spiral Galaxies -- Clues for Dynamics and Star Formation Histories

UV and optical images of the face-on spiral galaxies NGC 6753 and NGC 6782 reveal regions of strong on-going star formation that are associated with structures traced by the old stellar populations. We make NUV--(NUV-I) pixel color-magnitude diagrams (pCMDs) that reveal plumes of pixels with strongly varying NUV surface brightness and nearly constant I surface brightness. The plumes correspond to sharply bounded radial ranges, with (NUV-I) at a given NUV surface brightness being bluer at larger radii. The plumes are parallel to the reddening vector and simple model mixtures of young and old populations, thus neither reddening nor the fraction of the young population can produce the observed separation between the plumes. The images, radial surface-brightness, and color plots indicate that the separate plumes are caused by sharp declines in the surface densities of the old populations at radii corresponding to disk resonances. The maximum surface brightness of the NUV light remains nearly constant with radius, while the maximum I surface brightness declines sharply with radius. An MUV image of NGC 6782 shows emission from the nuclear ring. The distribution of points in an (MUV-NUV) vs. (NUV-I) pixel color-color diagram is broadly consistent with the simple mixture model, but shows a residual trend that the bluest pixels in (MUV-NUV) are the reddest pixels in (NUV-I). This may be due to a combination of red continuum from late-type supergiants and [SIII] emission lines associated with HII regions in active star-forming regions. We have shown that pixel mapping is a powerful tool for studying the distribution and strength of on-going star formation in galaxies. Deep, multi-color imaging can extend this to studies of extinction, and the ages and metallicities of composite stellar populations in nearby galaxies.Comment: LaTeX with AASTeX style file, 29 pages with 12 figures (some color, some multi-part). Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Safety and Efficacy of Dacomitinib in Korean Patients with KRAS Wild-Type Advanced Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer Refractory to Chemotherapy and Erlotinib or Gefitinib: A Phase I/II Trial

IntroductionDacomitinib (PF-00299804), an irreversible pan-human epidermal growth factor receptor ([HER]-1/EGFR, HER-2, and HER-4) tyrosine kinase inhibitor, demonstrated antitumor activity in Western patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at a dose of 45 mg once daily. We report data from a phase I/II, multicenter, open-label study of Korean patients with refractory KRAS wild-type adenocarcinoma NSCLC (defined as patients with evidence of disease progression during or within 6 months of treatment with chemotherapy and gefitinib or erlotinib).MethodsThe phase I dose-finding portion identified the recommended phase II dose (RP2D) in Korean patients, evaluated safety, and characterized the pharmacokinetics of dacomitinib. In the phase II portion, patients received dacomitinib at the RP2D. The primary end point was progression-free survival at 4 months (PFS4m).ResultsTwelve patients enrolled in phase I, and 43 patients enrolled in phase II at the RP2D of 45 mg once daily. In phase II, PFS4m was 47.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31.6–61.3; one-sided p-value = 0.0007). Median PFS was 15.4 weeks (95% CI, 9.7–17.6); median overall survival was 46.3 weeks (95% CI, 32.7–not reached); and the objective response rate was 17.1% (95% CI, 7.2–32.1). Common treatment-related adverse events were dermatitis acneiform, diarrhea, and paronychia; there were no treatment-related grade 4 or 5 adverse events. Pharmacokinetic parameters of dacomitinib in Korean patients were similar to those reported in Western patients. By patient report, NSCLC symptoms “cough” and “pain” showed improvement within 3 weeks of initiating treatment.ConclusionsDacomitinib was well tolerated and had antitumor activity in Korean patients with NSCLC who had previously progressed on chemotherapy and an epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor

Penguins and seals transport limiting nutrients between offshore pelagic and coastal regions of Antarctica under changing sea ice

Large animals such as sea birds and marine mammals can transport limiting nutrients between different regions of the ocean, thereby stimulating and enhancing productivity. In Antarctica this process is influenced by formation and breakup of sea ice and its influence on the feeding behaviour of predators and their prey. We used analyses of bioactive metals (for example, Fe, Co, Mn), macronutrients (for example, N) and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in the excreta of Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) as well as Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) from multiple sites, among multiple years (2012–2014) to resolve how changes in sea ice dynamics, as indicated by MODIS satellite images, were coincident with prey switching and likely changes in nutrient fluxes between the offshore pelagic and coastal zones. We also sampled excreta of the south polar skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), which preys on penguins and scavenges the remains of both penguins and seals. We found strong coincidence of isotopic evidence for prey switching, between euphausiids (Euphausia superba and E. crystallorophias) and pelagic/cryopelagic fishes (for example, Pleuragramma antarcticum) in penguins, and between pelagic/cryopelagic fishes and Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in Weddell seals, with changes in sea ice cover among years. Further, prey switching was strongly linked to changes in the concentrations of nutrients (Fe and N) deposited in coastal environments by both penguins and seals. Our findings have important implications for understanding how the roles of large animals in supporting coastal productivity may shift with environmental conditions in polar ecosystems.Accepted manuscrip