Autonomous ship concept evaluation – Quantification of competitiveness and societal impact

The prospect of large-scale international adoption of autonomous ships has led to expectations of reduced costs and emissions for waterborne transport of goods. This is commonly attributed to the possibility of removing manning from the ship, which enables more efficient ship designs and reduced operational costs. So why have we not seen a multitude of autonomous ship building projects? There are several reasons for this, including immature technology and regulations. However, there is another reason which has received less attention; the lack of quantifiable evidence for the benefits arising from investing in autonomous ships. There are some case studies on the impact of autonomy on transport cost, but there is no established method for evaluating the effects of an investment in autonomous ships. This paper will present Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) developed to enable such quantification. Furthermore, the developed KPIs are chosen not only to enable quantification of benefits but also to be calculable based on data which it is reasonable to assume that are available or obtainable at a concept stage.publishedVersio

Improving safety of interactions between conventional and autonomous ships

Automatic controllers work best when the system they control can be sufficiently well modelled. This is a problem for control of autonomous ships in mixed traffic situations where the autonomous ship interacts with conventional ships, as the crew on other ships can and will exert unexpected behaviour that cannot be easily modelled. This paper analyses the problem of information acquisition, situational assessment and how to predict other ship's actions for autonomous ships that need to interact with conventional ships. We identify causes for the interaction problem and classify these into a decision making model. We also identify possible measures to overcome the problems and based on an impact analysis where technical, procedural and regulatory aspects are considered, we discuss and propose some possible ways to reduce or solve this problem. The conclusion is that the most likely and effective short-term solution is to assist the autonomous ships with human operators and the best longer-term solution may be to improve the information exchange between the ships, complemented with changes in COLREGs.publishedVersio

Analyzing the Feasibility of an Unmanned Cargo Ship for Different Operational Phases

The maritime industry has begun to look into autonomous ships as an alternative to conventional ships due to growing pressure to reduce the environmental impact of maritime transportation, to increase safety, to mitigate the growing challenges in recruiting seafarers, and to increase profit margins. There is a lot of research on the challenges and feasibilities of an autonomous ship. However, there is less discussion on the transition from manned to unmanned ships and the tasks that are feasible to automate before the whole ship is unmanned. This paper investigates the technical and regulatory feasibility of automating different tasks for different operational phases for a large cargo ship. This study shows that a fully unmanned cargo ship is not feasible today, but that some tasks can be automated within the next five years.publishedVersio

A gap analysis for automated cargo handling operations with geared vessels frequenting small sized ports

With the Yara Birkeland, the world’s first autonomous cargo ship developed for commercial use, nearing regular unmanned operation, it is crucial to assess the availability and readiness of unmanned cargo handling solutions. While there are already fully automated container terminals at large international ports, the purpose of this study is to consider solutions to support autonomous ships for small sized ports with little infrastructure, typical of coastal harbors in Norway. The analysis centers on geared cargo vessels that can navigate such ports with minimal or no crew onboard, and the primary method used involved workshops and interviews with personnel from relevant industries. An important finding is the lack of skilled crane operators that are willing to follow the ship. The study concludes that it is important to address the following 3 key technological gaps: (1) the autonomous connection and release of break-bulk, (2) automatic securing and lashing of onboard cargo, and (3) shipboard cranes that can operate without an onsite crane operator.publishedVersio

Evaluation of an autonomous, short sea shipping feeder-loop service through advanced simulations

Traditionally, container-freight being shipped from central Europe to the coast of Norway has been transported either by road, or by larger containerships to central ports. For the past 3 years the AEGIS consortium has worked to develop a new, disruptive short sea shipping feeder-loop service based on mother and daughter ships [1]. The hypothesis is that introducing smaller, autonomous, battery-powered vessels into the fjords of Norway would open new business areas, provide access to remote regions, and allow shipping companies to take on cargo that could not previously be transported by water. Such a transport system has the potential of reducing cost, GHG emissions and external costs, while increasing frequency of service and the waterborne cargo volume in Europe. One of the main challenges of the mother-daughter logistic system is how transshipment affects defined key performance indicators (KPIs), especially in terms of cost. For this purpose, the SIMPACT tool [2] was developed in the H2020 projects AEGIS and AUTOSHIP. The tool allows for rapid iterations of maritime logistic systems through discrete event scheduling, and estimation of energy, fuel, emission, and cost. This paper will present results from a case-study on two different daughter ship concepts. The concepts are evaluated through cost and environmental KPIs presented in [1], in addition to external costs based on the European handbook on the external costs of transport [3]. Results from the case-studies indicate that transport systems including green daughter-vessels have the potential of being cost competitive and would lower externalities compared to the baseline truck transportation system.publishedVersio

Anvendelse av teorien om planlagt adferd for kartlegging av drivere og barrierer ved e-handel

Denne oppgaven har til hensikt å kartlegge hvilke faktorer som kan forklare intensjonen til å handle på internett. Dette innebærer spørsmål omkring hvordan forbrukerne vurderer de ulike egenskapene og konsekvensene ved e-handel, hvilke av disse egenskapene og konsekvensene som er viktige, hvilke som er motiver og hvilke som sees på som barrierer for å handle på internett. Det teoretiske utgangspunktet for mitt arbeid er hentet fra holdningsteori, mer presist den anerkjente og ofte benyttede ”teorien om planlagt adferd” (Ajzen, 1985). Teorien om planlagt adferd kan utover å tjene som et teoretisk rammeverk, i tillegg fremstå som et strategisk verktøy i markedsføringsøyemed. Dette kan gjøres ved å se på hvilke faktorer som i størst grad påvirker intensjonskomponenten, for så å dra slutninger i retning av markedsstrategi. Imidlertid har jeg valgt å utvide det teoretiske rammeverket til også å omhandle risikomomenter knyttet til e-handel i analysemodellen. De empiriske undersøkelsene av denne teorien er uført som en webbasert spørreskjemaundersøkelse blant studenter ved Universitetet i Tromsø. Til sammen 1589 valide responser ble brukt i analysen. Faktor-, reliabilitets- og frekvensanalyse ble innledningsvis benyttet til å utføre statistiske undersøkelser av dataene fra undersøkelsen. På bakgrunn av disse analysene ble den teoretiske modellen og analysemodellen testet ved hjelp av ulike teknikker innenfor regresjon

Optimal path following for underactuated marine vessels

This report presents two optimization problems, where three cost-functions are suggested for each. The goal for the first optimization problem is to find a time variant look-ahead distance which improves the performance of the vessel in terms of the cross-track error, relative to constant look-ahead distances. The second optimization problem is an extension of the first, where a time variant surge velocity reference is also calculated. This results in smaller cross-track errors, at the cost of increased calculation time. It is assumed that the path and the desired surge velocity on the path is supplied by some external source. Existing kappa-exponential control laws are used to track the references resulting from the calculated optimal look-ahead distance and surge velocity reference. The predictions needed to solve the optimization problem are made from a model where the control laws are inserted into the dynamics to simplify the model. The optimization problems are solved for two different approaches. The first approach uses an LTV model for predictions and a QP-solver to solve the optimization problem. The second approach forms predictions of the states by numerical integration of the system dynamics and uses an optimization problem solver for general non-linear functions to solve the optimization problem. The latter approach generally results in longer calculation times but better accuracy, while the first approach yields convexity of the optimization problem. A passive observer is used to estimate the current such that it can be included in the predictions. Four of the six suggested cost-functions lead to significantly improved performance of the vessel in terms of the cross-track error. This is true both in the case of no disturbances and in the presence of a constant irrotational current. That is, the position of the vessel converges faster to the path, the vessel stays closer to the path and has less over-shoot in the cross-track error, for the optimal inputs than for constant inputs. The cost-functions includes weights for tuning where the tuning process is easy for some of the cost-functions. One of the cost-functions where only the optimal look-ahead distance is calculated, results in calculation times shorter than the time between samples, after a few time steps. This is a promising result since the application of MPC to fast-dynamic systems such as marine vessels is desired, but often problematic due to too long calculation times for solving the optimization problem. It takes more time to solve the optimization problem when the optimal surge velocity reference is found in addition to the optimal look-ahead distance

SIMPACT - SIMulation based ship concept imPACT evaluation tool

This report contains the user manual for the SIMPACT tool (SIMulation based ship concept imPACT evaluation tool) for evaluation of novel ship concepts. The tool consists of two sub tools. The logistics analysis tool (LA tool), and the MASS analysis tool (MA tool) for cost and emission analysis. SIMPACT can be used to make an initial design of a waterborne transport system and to evaluate the logistical performance through a set of KPIs. Furthermore, SIMPACT can estimate energy consumption for ships operating in the transport system, transported cargo volumes, emissions, and costs.publishedVersio

Autonomous ship concept evaluation – Quantification of competitiveness and societal impact

The prospect of large-scale international adoption of autonomous ships has led to expectations of reduced costs and emissions for waterborne transport of goods. This is commonly attributed to the possibility of removing manning from the ship, which enables more efficient ship designs and reduced operational costs. So why have we not seen a multitude of autonomous ship building projects? There are several reasons for this, including immature technology and regulations. However, there is another reason which has received less attention; the lack of quantifiable evidence for the benefits arising from investing in autonomous ships. There are some case studies on the impact of autonomy on transport cost, but there is no established method for evaluating the effects of an investment in autonomous ships. This paper will present Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) developed to enable such quantification. Furthermore, the developed KPIs are chosen not only to enable quantification of benefits but also to be calculable based on data which it is reasonable to assume that are available or obtainable at a concept stage

Analysing Supply Chain Phases for Design of Effective Autonomous Ship Technology in New Transport System Solutions

Maritime autonomous surface ships provide new capabilities for transport systems design, and by that the potential to dramatically change ship logistics. Advantages of autonomous ships include operational flexibility with more and smaller ships, combined with new ship hull and superstructure designs, allowing more cargo to be transported at lower cost and reduced emissions. It is also easier to operate smaller ships with alternative energy sources such as batteries, and by that further reducing the emissions. However, the investment cost of an autonomous ship system is perceived to be higher compared with conventional ships. Combined with limited operational experience, this creates a challenging threshold for launching new projects. The purpose of this work is to lower this threshold by providing a better understanding for the analysis tools employed in new transport systems design. Structured analysis of the supply chain phases and tasks enables the involved stakeholders to evaluate the cost and benefits associated with the increased automation in a specific phase of the transport system. This will additionally form a basis for developing business models and priorities for gradual introduction of key enabling technologies through retrofitting of conventional ships or designing and building new smart ships. A scalable method for the systematic supply chain analysis of waterborne transport systems is introduced. The method is developed through a mapping and analysis of one inland waterways use-case and one short sea shipping use-case, and used as a basis for the systematic identification of all the supply chain phases and all tasks carried out in each phase of the transport system. A design process for autonomous ship systems consisting of the supply chain analysis, the task distribution and the cost benefit analysis is also presented. The effectiveness of this process in the design and incorporation of autonomous ship technologies in new transport systems solutions is demonstrated.acceptedVersio