AGROCLIMATIC RISK ZONING FOR GUAVA (Psidium guajava L.) IN PARANÁ RIVER BASIN 3

Fruticulture constitutes an important sector of the Brazilian agricultural industry. Despite technological and scientific advances, climate is still the most important variable defining crop productivity. Because of this, agroclimatic zoning should be one of the first factors to consider when starting to plant a particular crop. The objective of this work was to conduct climate risk zoning for guava (Psidium guajava L.) in Paraná river basin 3, Paraná, Brazil, using meteorological data from 43 stations collected between 1976 and 2018. The climate risk analysis was based on the climatic factors that impact the species, such as rainfall, annual water deficit, average annual temperature, coldest month temperature, and risk of frost. The findings of this study suggest that the basin has areas with a low climate risk for guava cultivation. Precipitation and water balance were sufficient under all tested scenarios. The most limiting factor for production was frost, but with risk only present during the first years of cultivation. Despite this, planting restrictions were only predicted to occur in the far west portion of the basin. Agricultural techniques that reduce the risk of frost and avoiding areas with greater frost incidences are the two most important aspects to consider to ensure greater success for guava in the region

EVENTOS EXTREMOS E VARIABILIDADE PLUVIOMÉTRICA EM LONDRINA – PR: ESTUDO DE CASO DAS CHUVAS DE 11 DE JANEIRO DE 2016

Os eventos extremos de precipitação causam severos danos tanto no espaço urbano quanto no rural. Ocorrências de alagamentos, enxurradas e inundações tornam-se cada vez mais frequentes e marcantes em todo o mundo. Esses atingem os espaços de maneira homogênea, no entanto a população está exposta a riscos distintos devido a vulnerabilidade socioambiental. Sendo assim, o objetivo desse estudo foi analisar a ocorrência e variabilidade pluviométrica, gênese e frequência dos impactos dos eventos extremos de precipitação em Londrina – PR. Os impactos dos eventos extremos foram averiguados com base nas chuvas de 11 de janeiro de 2016, a maior registrada na série, com altura pluviométrica de 275mm no intervalo de 24 horas. Além disso, as séries pluviométricas da estação meteorológica de Londrina foram utilizadas para avaliar a associação entre os totais anuais, sazonais, mensais e diários de precipitação com os eventos de El Niño - Oscilação Sul (ENOS), com o recorte temporal de 1976-2018. Identificou-se que os meses de verão são os mais propícios as ocorrências de eventos extremos, com parte expressiva dos eventos extremos e maiores alturas de precipitação ocorrendo em períodos de El Niño, enquanto os períodos secos predominam em condições de La Niña

AGROCLIMATIC RISK ZONING OF PINEAPPLE (Ananas comosus) IN THE HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN OF PARANÁ RIVER 3, BRAZIL

Fruticulture is a prominent segment of Brazilian agriculture. It presents a continuous evolution of production, attending to the growing internal and external demand, besides being one of the main activities of family agriculture. Despite of recent technological and scientific advances, climate is still the most important variable in agricultural productivity. Studies that show the climatic variability and the impact on the physiological development of plant species are fundamental for the planning and agricultural calendar, aiming the conservation of resources and a sustainable management of the production. In this context, one of the first information to be considered when starting a crop is agro-climatic zoning, since it provides climate-related risk information and helps in decision-making and agricultural planning. Thus, the objective of this work was to carry out agroclimatic risk zoning for the Pineapple (Ananas comosus) in the Paraná River basin 3, Paraná state, Brazil. For this, meteorological data of 43 stations with series from 1976 to 2018 we used. The climatic risk analysis was based on the requirements of the species of precipitation, average annual temperature and in the coldest month, risk of frost and insolation. Statistical and geoprocessing techniques were applied to ensure full regional coverage of information and to contribute to decision-making. Favorable climatic conditions were identified for all climatic variables in the western portion of the river basin, while in the eastern portion the risk of frost restricted the aptitude

FREQUÊNCIA, INTENSIDADE E VARIABILIDADE PLUVIOMÉTRICA NA MESORREGIÃO SUDOESTE PARANAENSE

A variabilidade climática exerce influência significativa sobre as atividades humanas. Os eventos extremos de precipitação causam danos severos tanto no espaço urbano quanto no rural. O aumento da temperatura média da superfície global, em conjunto com eventos extremos de precipitação causam grandes incertezas na dinâmica dos impactos das condições de tempo e clima, e como se planejar para prevenir os impactos é um tema que se torna cada vez mais crucial. Dessa forma, estudos que evidenciem a variabilidade climática em diferentes escalas são fundamentais para o planejamento das atividades humanas. O estado do Paraná se encontra em uma região de transição climática com grande variação dos elementos meteorológicos, sendo essencial a compreensão destes fenômenos devido a seus possíveis impactos. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a variabilidade pluviométrica, a intensidade e frequência da precipitação na Mesorregião Sudoeste Paranaense - MRSPR associados ao fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS. Para isso utilizou-se as escalas temporais anual, mensal e diária com o recorte temporal de 1976 a 2017. Através dos resultados, identificou-se grande discrepância nas alturas pluviométricas anuais, mensais e diárias, com parte expressiva dos eventos extremos e maiores alturas de precipitação ocorrendo em períodos de El Niño, enquanto os períodos secos predominam em condições de La Niña

AGROCLIMATIC RISK ZONING FOR GUAVA (Psidium guajava L.) IN PARANÁ RIVER BASIN 3

Fruticulture constitutes an important sector of the Brazilian agricultural industry. Despite technological and scientific advances, climate is still the most important variable defining crop productivity. Because of this, agroclimatic zoning should be one of the first factors to consider when starting to plant a particular crop. The objective of this work was to conduct climate risk zoning for guava (Psidium guajava L.) in Paraná river basin 3, Paraná, Brazil, using meteorological data from 43 stations collected between 1976 and 2018. The climate risk analysis was based on the climatic factors that impact the species, such as rainfall, annual water deficit, average annual temperature, coldest month temperature, and risk of frost. The findings of this study suggest that the basin has areas with a low climate risk for guava cultivation. Precipitation and water balance were sufficient under all tested scenarios. The most limiting factor for production was frost, but with risk only present during the first years of cultivation. Despite this, planting restrictions were only predicted to occur in the far west portion of the basin. Agricultural techniques that reduce the risk of frost and avoiding areas with greater frost incidences are the two most important aspects to consider to ensure greater success for guava in the region

Space-time variability of evapotranspiration and precipitation in the State of Paraná, Brazil

Long-term changes in important weather variables such as evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation are expected as a response to climate change. These changes may require adjustments to current strategies of planning and management of water resources. The objective of this work was to conduct a spatiotemporal characterization of evapotranspiration in the State of Paraná, Brazil, including in this approach a temporal trend analysis. A similar analysis was also conducted for precipitation. Thus, the historical data (1980-2010) from 33 weather stations were analyzed. The spatial distribution of the data was carried out by geostatistical techniques (ordinary kriging) and the trend analysis by the tests Mann-Kendall and Sen. According to the results, evapotranspiration increases from the coast to the interior of the state, with the highest values in the northeast and northwest regions, reaching levels of about 1200 mm yr-1. The temporal variability of the ET presented a significant upward trend in 12% of the locations, with increases from 2.5 to 7.0 mm yr-1. Precipitation was higher in the coastal and south-central regions and the lowest amounts were identified in the northeast and northwest regions. The precipitation trend analysis indicated a significant downward trend in precipitation volume of five locations. The evapotranspiration and precipitation showed, in general, no statistically significant trends in most of the stations analyzed; however, the upward trends for ET and downward trends for precipitation indicate local changes in the State of Paraná

WATER AVAILABILITY AND RISK OF DRY SPELLS FOR SOYBEAN IN THE WEST OF PARANÁ STATE, BRAZIL

The water availability is the factor that most affects the production of soybean crops in the state of Paraná. Dry spells are extremely damaging to agricultural production and, therefore, studies that identify the frequency and intensity of these events are relevant to the planning of operations. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the rainfall availability and to determine the frequency of dry spells in the Meso-region of Parana state. Precipitation data were collected from 48 stations distributed throughout the mesoregion between 1976 and 2018.  Rainfall variability was analyzed in the annual, monthly and 10-days scales, and the frequencies of dry periods of 10 days from September to March and ≥ 20 days during the year. It was verified that the mesoregion showed differences in the amount of precipitation, but with enough rainfall for soybean cultivation. The relief favors the distribution of rainfall in the region. The southern portion has the highest mean precipitation, while the northern portion has the lowest. The dry spells frequencies per moving 10-day periods showed a maximum of 35% between the months of September and March in the region. The periods with the lowest risk are throughout the month of October, followed by December 10 to January 5. The biggest risks of dry spells are concentrated in the month of September, due to the irregular start of the rainy season. The results of this study help to choose the best sowing times such that the most sensitive phases of soybean cycle occur in the lowest risk periods