Offshore Drilling and Energy Conservation: The Relative Impact on Gas Prices

This issue brief compares projected savings from drilling in presently restricted offshore zones and savings if the nation had continued adjusting fuel efficiency standards at 1980-1985 rates. The issue brief projects savings through 2027, the year in which offshore drilling would reach peak capacity

Offshore Drilling and Energy Conservation: The Relative Impact on Gas Prices

This issue brief compares projected savings from drilling in presently restricted offshore zones and savings if the nation had continued adjusting fuel efficiency standards at 1980-1985 rates. The issue brief projects savings through 2027, the year in which offshore drilling would reach peak capacity.offshore drilling, energy conservation, fuel efficiency

Are Voters Cursed When Politicians Conceal Policy Preferences?

In campaigns, candidates often avoid taking positions on issues, concealing the policy preferences that would guide them if elected. This paper describes a novel explanation for ambiguity in political campaigns. It develops a model of candidate competition in which policy-motivated candidates can choose whether or not to announce their policy preferences to voters. It applies Eyster and Rabin\u27s (2005) concept of cursed equilibrium, which allows for varying degrees of understanding of the connection between type (policy preference) and strategy (whether to announce). If voters updated according to Bayes\u27 Rule, they would understand that candidates who do not announce positions are strategically concealing an unpopular policy preference. In equilibrium, only the most extreme candidates, those located furthest from the median voter’s position, would choose to take no position. However, if voters do not sufficiently appreciate the informational content of a non-announcement, unraveling will not occur and both extremists and more moderate candidates will not announce positions

Beyond Happiness and Satisfaction: Toward Well-Being Indices Based on Stated Preference [post-print]

This paper proposes foundations and a methodology for survey-based tracking of well-being. First, we develop a theory in which utility depends on fundamental aspects of well-being, measurable with surveys. Second, drawing from psychologists, philosophers, and economists, we compile a comprehensive list of such aspects. Third, we demonstrate our proposed method for estimating the aspects\u27 relative marginal utilities—a necessary input for constructing an individual-level well-being index—by asking ~4,600 U.S. survey respondents to state their preference between pairs of aspect bundles. We estimate high relative marginal utilities for aspects related to family, health, security, values, freedom, happiness, and life satisfaction

Essays At The Intersection Of Behavioral Economics And Public Policy

In political campaigns, candidates often avoid taking positions on issues, instead making vague statements that conceal the policy preferences that would guide them if elected. The explanation for ambiguity proposed in the first chapter is that voters do not understand the informational content of a nonannouncement. If voters are Bayesians, unraveling occurs, with only the most extreme candidates remaining ambiguous. However, if voters under-appreciate the relationship between candidates preferences and their strategies, more moderate candidates may also choose to be vague. The first chapter develops a model of candidate competition in which candidates can choose whether or not to announce their policy preferences to voters and applies Eyster and Rabin's (2005) concept of cursed equilibrium, which allows for varying degrees of understanding of the connection between type and strategy. The second chapter describes and analyzes the results of an experimental test in which subjects in the lab play an election game based on an extension of the model that allows candidates to choose whether or not to make policy commitments. While the majority of subjects make choices that are consistent with the Bayesian model, a substantial fraction shows varying levels of cursedness. The third chapter (joint work with Dan Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, and Miles Kimball) proposes foundations and a methodology for survey-based tracking of well-being. First, we develop a theory in which utility depends on "fun- damental aspects" of well-being, measurable with surveys. Second, drawing from psychologists, philosophers, and economists, we compile a comprehensive list of such aspects. Third, we demonstrate our proposed method for estimating the aspects' relative marginal utilities-a necessary input for constructing an individual-level well-being index-by asking 4,600 US survey respondents to state their preference between pairs of aspect bundles. We estimate high relative marginal utilities not only for happiness and life satisfaction, but also for aspects related to family, health, security, values, and freedoms