Crossing the technology adoption chasm: implications for DoD

Acquisition research (Graduate School of Business & Public Policy)DoD faces significant challenges in delivering promising new technologies to service members quickly and cost-effectively. To better understand DOD's technology adoption challenges, we review the technology diffusion literature to identify factors associated with successful and unsuccessful technology adoption processes, conduct case studies of DoD's advanced technology programs and propose a conceptual technology adoption model. The literature review identifies three overarching factors reflecting the complexities of defense technology adoption: benefit-cost uncertainty, organizational externalities, and direct and indirect network externalities. Technology adoption clearly involves benefit and cost uncertainties. Organizational externalities arise because there are typically multiple stakeholders from different DoD constituencies. Direct and indirect network externalities reflect the joint and interrelated nature of defense technologies on the battlefield. A closer look at one of DoD's advanced technology development programs indicates that success factors in this program generally parallel the results of the literature survey: the importance of benefit-cost uncertainty, management commitment (organizational externalities), technology champion (network externalities) and the prospects for future technology transfer (network externalities). Finally, we present conceptual technology adoption models incorporating benefit-cost uncertainty, organizational externalities and network externalities. These models can explain the diffusion patterns observed in the defense department: no adoption, full adoption, and partial adoption/de-adoption.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Prediction and control under uncertainty: Outcomes in angel investing

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2007.11.004Venture investing plays an important role in entrepreneurship not only because financial resources are important to new ventures, but also because early investors help shape the ventures' managerial and strategic destiny. In this study of 121 angel investors who had made 1038 new venture investments, we empirically investigate angel investors' differential use of predictive versus non-predictive control strategies. We show how the use of these strategies affects the outcomes of angel investors. Results show that angels who emphasize prediction make significantly larger venture investments, while those who emphasize nonpredictive control experience a reduction in investment failures without a reduction in their number of successes

Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making: Differences between experts and novices

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.002In support of theory, this study demonstrates that entrepreneurial experts frame decisions using an “effectual” logic (identify more potential markets, focus more on building the venture as a whole, pay less attention to predictive information, worry more about making do with resources on hand to invest only what they could afford to lose, and emphasize stitching together networks of partnerships); while novices use a “predictive frame” and tend to “go by the textbook.”We asked 27 expert entrepreneurs and 37MBAstudents to think aloud continuously as they solved typical decision-making problems in creating a new venture. Transcriptions were analyzed using methods from cognitive science. Results showed that expert entrepreneurs framed problems in a dramatically different way than MBA students

Entrepreneurial talent and venture performance: A meta-analytic investigation of SMEs

AbstractAs the broad link between small and medium-sized firm activity and key policy goals such as employment or economic growth has become generally accepted, the conversation has focused on a more nuanced understanding of the entrepreneurial engines of economic activity. A significant body of research looking at antecedents to venture performance has identified that entrepreneurial talent variables account for meaningful differences in venture performance and that significant heterogeneity exists across performance measures. These are important issues for institutions and policy makers seeking to achieve specific economic goals (e.g., survival or growth of ventures, employment or revenue). Using meta-analysis, we integrate this work to view connections between aspects of entrepreneurial talent and different performance outcomes. Our investigation includes 50,045 firms (K of 183 studies) and summarizes 1002 observations of small and medium-sized firms. Analysis of these data yields an unexpectedly weak connection between education and performance. Furthermore, growth, scale (number of employees) and sales outcomes are significantly related to planning skills, while profit and other financial and qualitative measures are strongly connected with the network surrounding the firm founders. Moreover, we observe that entrepreneurial talent is more relevant in developing economies

Correction to: Cluster identification, selection, and description in Cluster randomized crossover trials: the PREP-IT trials

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article