Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show that while assassinations and strikes (what we call “informal” political instability) have a direct negative effect on economic growth, “formal” political instability (constitutional and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that while the effects of “formal” instability are stronger in the long-run, those of “informal” instability are stronger in the short-run

The dynamics of core and periphery in the European monetary union: A new approach

Despite numerous studies about core-periphery in monetary unions, few focus on their dynamics. This paper (i) presents new theory-based, continuous and dynamic measures of the probability of a country being classified as core or periphery; (ii) estimates the determinants of the changes in this probability over time and across countries; and (iii) uses the Phillips-Sul convergence panel framework to investigate the behaviour of core and periphery groups over time. Our main results indicate that the post-EMU decrease of the core-periphery gap that we document was mainly driven by the adoption of the euro and by increasing competition (lower mark-ups)

Corruption and economic growth: An econometric survey of the evidence

Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of economic growth? This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the effect of corruption on growth, using metaanalysis techniques for 460 estimates from 41 studies. We find that publication bias, albeit acute, does not dissipate the genuine and negative effect of corruption on growth. Among the main factors explaining the variation in the estimated effects, we find that taking account of (a) trade openness and institutions and (b) authors with academic affiliations (as opposed to think tanks and international organizations) seems to help generate less negative effects of corruption on growth

Bretton Woods, Brussels, and Beyond: Redesigning the Institutions of Europe

This book is an ebook titled "Add a new book Bretton Woods, Brussels, and Beyond: Redesigning the Institutions of Europe" https://voxeu.org/content/bretton-woods-brussels-and-beyondIn most countries on the continent, Europe has become contentious, to put it mildly. For good (rather, bad) reasons. The euro area debt crisis came as a shocking surprise; the authorities were totally unprepared, and it showed. In the event, the banking system has become fragmented, the precise opposite of what the single currency was designed to deliver. For more than a decade, the middle classes have stagnated while the famous ‘top 1%’ have become much richer. Meanwhile, those at the bottom were preserved from the onslaught of globalisation and the shake-up from technological change. The immigration crisis has demonstrated the inability of the EU to deal with the consequences of freedom of movement. And, of course, Brexit has broken the taboo that Europe is a much-desired one-way street. Most of these humiliating developments had been, or should have been, anticipated. Policymakers chose to ignore warnings. The ‘system’ did not produce the kind of critical introspection that is vital for long-term success. When problems surged, the EU proved unable to react properly. True, there were innovations, but none is satisfactory yet. The Banking Union remains work in progress. The Stability and Growth Pact was reformed a few more times to become a machinery of great complexity and limited usefulness. Some countries are saddled with huge debts likely to be unsustainable, but no official will talk about this risk. Denial and complacency remain the order of the day. This is all a failure of European institutions. The editors of this eBook must be commended for having brought together an impressive array of authors who focus their contributions on institutions. Collectively, they do not offer a blueprint of what has to be done, but the disconnect between their analyses and what policymakers debate suggests that, once again, the EU is not ready to take serious remedial action ahead of trouble. This eBook should be required reading for all those who care deeply about Europe and, especially, for its policymakers

Economic integration and state capacity

We investigate whether and how economic integration increases state capacity. This important relationship has not been studied in detail so far. We put together a conceptual framework to guide our analysis that highlights what we call the Montesquieu, Weber and Smith channels. Each of these correspond to a series of mechanisms in three distinct institutional arenas: judiciary, bureaucracy, and competition policy. To test our framework, we introduce a new panel of institutional reform measures which allow us to investigate how changes in these three arenas interact with each other and what sequence of changes yields increases in state capacity. The yearly data set covers all the 17 countries that became candidates to join the European Union (EU) after the 1995 enlargement. Our main finding is that the relationship between bureaucratic independence and judiciary capacity seems to be the key engine of the process of state capacity building engendered by the prospect of EU membership. Deep integration, we find, can induce broad institutional change by providing incentives for simultaneous change in core state institutions. Yet early and abrupt removal of external anchors might generate significant backsliding, or reversals, in domestic institutional change

Capital Flows to Converging European Economies: Crises, Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the determinants of foreign private capital inflows in Europe. Using the Hausman-Taylor panel estimator and data for the 27 European Union members, yearly since 1990, it compares determinants of capital flows into old (EU15) vis-à-vis new Member States (NMS). In addition to standard factors (infrastructure, institutions, etc.), it focuses on the relative roles of economic crises and structural reforms. Three main conclusions emerge: (1) since 1990, NMS have received more inflows than the EU15, of which mostly is FDI, but the variance of these inflows is larger (until 2007) in NMS than in the EU15, (2) infrastructure, market size and institutions affect inflows to both EU15 and NMS, and (3) the negative effects of crises on FDI inflows are significantly stronger in the NMS than in the EU15

Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions: A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis

© 2018 The Authors. This paper offers a systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients including their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); and (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias

Institutional Integration and Economic Growth in Europe

The literature on the growth effects of European integration remains inconclusive. This is due to 9 severe methodological difficulties mostly driven by country heterogeneity. This paper addresses 10 these concerns using the synthetic control method. It constructs counterfactuals for countries that 11 joined the European Union (EU) from 1973 to 2004. We find that growth effects from EU 12 membership are large and positive, with Greece as the exception. Despite substantial variation 13 across countries and over time, we estimate that without European integration, per capita 14 incomes would have been, on average, approximately 10 percent lower in the first ten years after 15 joining the EU

Heritability of physical activity traits in Brazilian families: the Baependi Heart Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is commonly recognized that physical activity has familial aggregation; however, the genetic influences on physical activity phenotypes are not well characterized. This study aimed to (1) estimate the heritability of physical activity traits in Brazilian families; and (2) investigate whether genetic and environmental variance components contribute differently to the expression of these phenotypes in males and females.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sample that constitutes the Baependi Heart Study is comprised of 1,693 individuals in 95 Brazilian families. The phenotypes were self-reported in a questionnaire based on the WHO-MONICA instrument. Variance component approaches, implemented in the SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines) computer package, were applied to estimate the heritability and to evaluate the heterogeneity of variance components by gender on the studied phenotypes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The heritability estimates were intermediate (35%) for weekly physical activity among non-sedentary subjects (weekly PA_NS), and low (9-14%) for sedentarism, weekly physical activity (weekly PA), and level of daily physical activity (daily PA). Significant evidence for heterogeneity in variance components by gender was observed for the sedentarism and weekly PA phenotypes. No significant gender differences in genetic or environmental variance components were observed for the weekly PA_NS trait. The daily PA phenotype was predominantly influenced by environmental factors, with larger effects in males than in females.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Heritability estimates for physical activity phenotypes in this sample of the Brazilian population were significant in both males and females, and varied from low to intermediate magnitude. Significant evidence for heterogeneity in variance components by gender was observed. These data add to the knowledge of the physical activity traits in the Brazilian study population, and are concordant with the notion of significant biological determination in active behavior.</p