24 research outputs found

    Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

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    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be 20to20 to 30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance

    Control Theory and System Dynamics Simulations of Electric Vehicle Market Penetration in South Africa

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    Economic development shares interdependence with energy investment, a complex interaction of systems. Thus, advanced modelling tools are required to support the development of strategic integrated energy plans, inclusive of the technological complexities in the electricity value chain. This paper looks at a system dynamics modelling approach with elements of control systems engineering to determine the impact of the electric vehicle (EV) technology market penetration on the electricity demand profile and the related environmental impact in the energy and transport sectors in South Africa. Results indicate that the approach provided a robust framework in which to design the model and conduct sensitivity analyses of additional EVs entering the system due to the feedback loops inherent in the system structure

    Sustainable energy transition framework for unmet electricity markets

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    Efficient energy supply is a means for people to gain access to a wide range of energy-related services. In unmet energy markets where energy supply is inadequate or lacking, such services, and the resulting benefits, are seldom attained. This has prompted research on energy transition, specifically a transition to renewable energy, to rapidly diffuse energy access in these regions. Existing energy transition frameworks are predominantly contextualised in developed economies, with little evidence of their applicability in the context of developing countries. This paper proposed an energy transition framework for the unmet electricity markets, after conducting a systematic review of the literature on energy transitions, specifically relating to sustainable transitions of electricity systems. Contextual limitations observed in the energy transition literature included market demand, scale of energy infrastructure, type of energy resource, transition duration, novelty of opportunities, and level of external influence. An energy transition framework for unmet electricity markets was subsequently conceptualised. The key characteristics of this modified transition framework are: (i) traditional technology; (ii) defunct deceleration; (iii) a niche technology curve; (iv) landscape support for niches; and (v) new regime condensation (emergence). Contextual awareness in designing policy frameworks for energy transition is essential to achieve sustainable energy for all, particularly in unmet electricity markets

    Affordability of battery electric vehicles based on disposable income and the impact on provincial residential electricity requirements in South Africa

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    South Africa's political history, unique demographic profile, and economic growth drivers, present a challenge in adopting universal strategies and business models to plan for the impact of battery electric vehicles in the residential sector. This paper investigated battery electric vehicle (BEV) substitution of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) on a provincial level, to better plan for additional electricity requirements. This was achieved by developing the E-StratBEV model, using system dynamics. The model results show that nationally, although the Low Growth scenario indicates about 233,700 BEVs by 2040, the adjusted number (based on the spending behaviour within deciles) may result in 44,155 BEVs while the High Growth scenario's expected 2.39 million BEVs by 2040 could be adjusted down to 451,736 BEVs. For a coal heavy supply mix, the cumulative carbon emissions from 2019 until 2040 resulted in negligible benefits, so provinces may not be able to leverage on passenger electric vehicles to reduce provincial environmental emissions. Lastly, the BEV growth drivers introduced an additional 1589 BEVs to the Low Growth scenario and an additional 16,257 BEVs to the High Growth targets from 2019 to 2040, with the purchase price being the dominant driver

    A system dynamics approach to technology sustainability assessment: The case of biodiesel developments in South Africa

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    Lettere En WysbegeerteSentrum vir Kennisdinamika & BesluitnemingPlease help us populate SUNScholar with the post print version of this article. It can be e-mailed to: [email protected]
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