The Role of Industry and Occupation in U.S. Unemployment Differentials by Gender, Race and Ethnicity: Recent Trends

We examine how gender, racial, and ethnic variation in unemployment and Unemployment Insurance (UI) receipt changed over time in the U.S. economy and how these changes are influenced by shifts in the occupational and industrial composition of employment. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, we confirm that, in the past 50 years, the unemployment rates for women, nonwhites, and Hispanics have been converging to those of the rest of the population. By 1992, women had the same unemployment rates as men; whereas nonwhite and Hispanic rates remained above those for the full population. Yet, once we adjust for industry and occupation differences in employment, women have higher unemployment rates than men, while Hispanics have similar unemployment rates to non-Hispanics. Nonwhites still have appreciably higher unemployment rates than whites. For women, the patterns of UI receipt correspond with unemployment differentials. Nonwhites and Hispanics are less likely to receive UI benefits than their unemployment experience would imply. The analysis also considers how differences in volatility of unemployment are explained by industrial and occupational distributions

Recent Changes In The Characteristics Of Unemployed Workers

We examine how gender, racial, and ethnic variation in unemployment and Unemployment Insurance (UI) receipt changed over time in the U.S. economy and how these changes are influenced by shifts in the occupational and industrial composition of employment. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, we find that, in the past 50 years, the unemployment rates for women, nonwhites, and Hispanics have been converging to those of the rest of the population. Between 1992 and 2007, women had the same unemployment rates as men; nonwhites still had higher unemployment rates than whites; and the rate for Hispanics was approaching that of non-Hispanics. Once we control for industry-occupation differences, women have higher unemployment and UI receipt rates than men, while Hispanics have similar unemployment rates but lower UI receipt rates than non-Hispanics. Nonwhites still have appreciably higher unemployment rates but the same UI receipt rates as whites

Welfare and Work in the 1990s: Experiences in Six Cities

Our study examines the dynamic structure of welfare participation and the labor market involvement of recipients starting in the early 1990s and extending through 1999 in the core counties containing six major urban areas: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Houston, and Kansas City. By focusing on six major cities, we can examine the extent to which differences in state and local policy, administrative directives, and local labor market conditions contribute to observed trends

Low-Income and Welfare Client Priorities: Patterns of Earnings and Welfare Receipt for Workforce Investment Act Participants

This paper examines labor market and welfare experiences of participants in Workforce Investment Act (WIA) programs who exited in July 2000-June 2001. Administrative data from six states on earnings and welfare receipt are used to trace the experiences of participants in the two years prior to and in the year following exit from WIA. Individuals are classified as “Adults” or “Dislocated Workers” and by whether they received “Training” or less intensive services under WIA. We find that Adults have large employment gains associated with participation in WIA, and Adults in Training have particularly large earnings gains. Following losses, employment and earnings of Dislocated Workers largely recover following WIA participation. Welfare receipt declines, especially for those in Training activities. Despite some differences, similarities between states in basic patterns are striking

Labor-Market Returns to the GED Using Regression Discontinuity Analysis

In this paper, we evaluate the labor-market returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification using Missouri administrative data. We develop a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) method to account for the fact that GED test takers can repeatedly retake the test until they pass it. Our technique can be applied to other situations where program participation is determined by a score on a "retake-able" test. Previous regression discontinuity estimates of the returns to GED certification have not accounted for retaking behavior, so these estimates may be biased. We find that the effect of GED certification on either employment or earnings is not statistically significant. GED certification increases postsecondary participation by up to four percentage points for men and up to eight percentage points for women

Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is most effective, but the detailed implementation is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact

An Evaluation of Missouri's A+ Schools' Program

The A+ Schools Program was initiated to offer financial incentives to students to attend Missouri's public 2-year post-secondary schools. Under the program, the state government provides eligible students with college expenses, but only students in specially designated schools are eligible. It also promotes high school institutional change through the provision of grants to high schools. The program was initiated in 1997 and continues to be phased in gradually. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of the A+ Program on Missouri high schools and post-secondary institutions. The use of administrative data provided by the Missouri state government assures greater reliability of the measures of program participation and postsecondary school attendance than obtained in studies using survey data. Program impacts are based on difference-in-differences estimators using the high school as the unit of analysis. Outcome measures include high school dropout rates, college enrollment rates, average test performance, and grades of high school seniors. The results suggest that high schools that initially have greater enrollments in 2-year colleges are more likely to participate in the program. Schools participating in the A+ program experience declines in dropout rates and A+ designation also increases the number of graduates who enroll in Missouri 2-year public colleges. This increase in enrollment in 2-year public colleges is the result of behavioral changes in two types of students: those who would not have gone to college at all and those who would have gone to other types of post-secondary institutions. Enrollment in 4-year public post-secondary institutions has decreased as a result of the program

Population Movements in the Presence of Agglomeration and Congestion Effects: Local Policy and the Social Optimum

We investigate the efficiency properties of population mobility when localities compete in an environment with local amenities and local externalities. Our model is dynamic, incorporating land and labor markets in a context where firms and workers form rational expectations. Concern focuses on whether and under what conditions the substantive conclusions from static models can be reinterpreted to apply in a dynamic context where moving is costly. In the spirit of Tiebout (1956), it can be shown in static models that taxes or subsidies developed by each local jurisdiction representing the interests of landowners can induce an efficient population allocation even in the presence of local externalities. We show that, in a dynamic model, efficiency of mobility requires that localities represent the interests of other local stakeholders, including residents and firms, as well as landowners. There may be multiple sets of equilibrium flows corresponding with alternative expectations. We consider institutional arrangements that may facilitate preferred paths

Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes

We explore the effects of temporary help employment on welfare recipients' subsequent employment and welfare dynamics. We find that any employment-in temporary help services or other sectors-yields substantial benefits compared to no employment. Although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors, they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, they are no less likely to be employed, their wages are close to those of other workers, and they are only slightly more likely to remain on welfare

The Role of Temporary Help Employment in Low-wage Worker Advancement

We examine the effects of temporary help service employment on later earnings and employment for individuals participating in three federal programs providing supportive services to those facing employment difficulties. The programs include Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, whose participants are seriously disadvantaged; a job training program with a highly heterogeneous population of participants; and employment exchange services, whose participants consist of Unemployment Insurance claimants and individuals seeking assistant in obtaining employment. We undertake our analyses for two periods: the late 1990s, a time of very strong economic growth, and shortly after 2000, a time of relative stagnation. Our results suggest that temporary help service firms may facilitate quicker access to jobs for those seeking employment assistance and impart substantial benefits as transitional employment, especially for individuals whose alternatives are severely limited. Those who do not move out of temporary help jobs, however, face substantially poorer prospects, and we observe that nonwhites are more likely than whites to remain in THS positions in the two years following program participation. Our results are robust to program and time period