Objective estimation of tropical cyclone wind structure from infrared satellite data

Includes bibliographical references.Given the destructive nature of tropical cyclones, it is extremely important to provide quality estimates of intensity, as well as wind structure. The Dvorak technique, and an automated version, the Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT) use a method of identifying cloud characteristics from satellite images (visible and infrared), to provide estimates of current storm intensity. However, these IR techniques provide no information on the extent or location of damaging winds. Estimates of wind structure via alternate methods have significant disadvantages. Gathering data using aircraft is expensive; therefore storms are flown only if they are an immediate threat to the U.S. AMSU algorithms for estimating wind structure have proven successful, however the instruments fly aboard polar-orbiting satellites, which only pass over the tropics twice a day, and are not contiguous at or near the equator. It is apparent that an alternate method of estimating wind structure is necessary; one in which data coverage is continuous. While IR data has historically been used to estimate intensity, the goal of this research is to extend the use of IR data to estimate wind structure. Theoretically, there should be a solid relationship between deep convection and the extent of damaging winds. The database for this work includes aircraft reconnaissance data from 91 Atlantic and E. Pacific storms flown during the 1995-2003 seasons as ground truth, in combination with GOES IR imagery, and storm best track information. Using multiple linear regression techniques, with predictors derived from the IR data, a radius of maximum wind can be estimated, as well as, more accurately, the symmetric tangential winds at a radius of 200 km (size parameter). These estimated parameters are then fit to a modified combined Rankine vortex model to reconstruct the entire symmetric wind field. Given the storm motion vector, and researched relationships between storm motion and wind asymmetries, the asymmetric part of the wind field can be calculated and added to the symmetric part to provide an estimation of the entire tropical cyclone wind field.Funding for this research was primarily sponsored by CIRA Activities and Participation in GOES I-M Produce Assurance Plan under NOAA cooperative agreement NA17RJ1228. Further support was provided by Improvement in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions under NOAA cooperative agreement NA17RJ1228

What Can be Done About Backlogs

Moderated conversation discussing the reality of caseloads, their pressures, and potential solutions. The conversation was with federal appellate court judge—Adalberto Jordán of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit— and a federal district court judge— Kimberly J. Mueller, chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California. Moderating the conversation is Merritt McAlister, interim dean and Levin, Mabie & Levin Professor of Law at the University of Florida Levin College of Law

Chronic Disease Self-Management and Behavior Change Attitudes in Older Adults: A Mixed-Method Feasibility Study

The population of older adults with chronic disease is increasing, yet little is known about their perception of chronic disease and self-management. To develop successful and sustainable chronic disease self-management interventions in the older adult population, health care providers must first understand older adults’ attitudes toward health status and behavior change. This pilot study was conducted to determine the feasibility of the study design. The purpose of this pilot study was to assess the appropriateness of using a mixed-methods research design to investigate Appalachian older adult’s attitude toward the chronic disease experience and health behavior change. A convergent, parallel mixed-method design included a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative focus groups in churches in northeast Tennessee. The aim of the study was met, and the methodology of the study was found to be feasible for larger studies. Divergence of data was found when evaluating qualitative and quantitative data. The study instrument was found to be reliable for future use. The implications of the results suggest that the study design is appropriate for the purpose of the study

Birth characteristics and childhood carcinomas

BACKGROUND: Carcinomas in children are rare and have not been well studied. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case–control study and examined associations between birth characteristics and childhood carcinomas diagnosed from 28 days to 14 years during 1980–2004 using pooled data from five states (NY, WA, MN, TX, and CA) that linked their birth and cancer registries. The pooled data set contained 57 966 controls and 475 carcinoma cases, including 159 thyroid and 126 malignant melanoma cases. We used unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: White compared with ‘other' race was positively associated with melanoma (OR=3.22, 95% CI 1.33–8.33). Older maternal age increased the risk for melanoma (OR(per 5-year age increase)=1.20, 95% CI 1.00–1.44), whereas paternal age increased the risk for any carcinoma (OR=1.10(per 5-year age increase), 95% CI 1.01–1.20) and thyroid carcinoma (OR(per 5-year age increase)=1.16, 95% CI 1.01–1.33). Gestational age <37 vs 37–42 weeks increased the risk for thyroid carcinoma (OR=1.87, 95% CI 1.07–3.27). Plurality, birth weight, and birth order were not significantly associated with childhood carcinomas. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study indicates that some birth characteristics including older parental age and low gestational age may be related to childhood carcinoma aetiology

DISPLACE study shows poor quality of transcranial Doppler ultrasound for stroke risk screening in sickle cell anemia

Children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) are at increased risk of stroke when compared with their age-based counterparts. The Stroke Prevention Trial in Sickle Cell Anemia (STOP) previously demonstrated that with the use of transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD; Sickle Stroke Screen) and chronic red cell transfusion, the risk of stroke is reduced by over 90%. The STOP criteria detailed the type and method of measurement required; the time-averaged mean maximum velocity (TAMMV). Unfortunately, it has been difficult to adhere to the appropriate TAMMV measurements. The objectives of this study were to assess the quality of TCD and transcranial Doppler imaging (TCDi) reports to determine the report quality and accuracy. This is a subanalysis of the DISPLACE (Dissemination and Implementation of Stroke Prevention Looking at the Care Environment) study. Over 12 000 TCD/TCDi reports were collected during this study from 28 institutions; 391 TCDs were reviewed for this subanalysis. There were significant variations in the vessels being assessed, the velocities used to define abnormal results, and who was interpreting the scans. In 52% of reports, it was impossible to identify whether the TAMMV was what was measured. Similarly, it was only clear in 42% of reports that the TAMMV was used to interpret the examination as normal/abnormal. Given this inconsistency, we strongly recommend standardization of TCD/TCDi reporting, specialized training for those performing and interpreting the scans in the use of TCD/TCDi in patients with SCA, internal quality assurance, and institutional quality improvement work to ensure appropriate use of this potentially lifesaving technology

Induction of Group IVC Phospholipase A2 in Allergic Asthma: Transcriptional Regulation by TNF-α in Bronchoepithelial Cells

Airway inflammation in allergen-induced asthma is associated with eicosanoid release. These bioactive lipids exhibit anti- and pro-inflammatory activities with relevance to pulmonary pathophysiology. We hypothesized that sensitization/challenge using an extract from the ubiquitous fungus, Aspergillus fumigatus (Af), in a mouse model of allergic asthma would result in altered phospholipase gene expression, thus modulating the downstream eicosanoid pathway. We observed the most significant induction in the group IVC phospholipase A2 (cPLA2γ or PLA2G4C). Our results infer that Af extract can induce cPLA2γ levels directly in eosinophils while induction in lung epithelial cells is most likely a consequence of TNF-α secretion by Af-activated macrophages. The mechanism of TNF-α-dependent induction of cPLA2γ gene expression was elucidated through a combination of promoter deletions, ChIP and overexpression studies in human bronchoepithelial cells, leading to the identification of functionally relevant CRE, NF-κB and E-box promoter elements. ChIP analysis demonstrated that RNA polymerase II, c-Jun/ATF-2, p65/p65 and USF1/USF2 complexes are recruited to the cPLA2γ enhancer/promoter in response to TNF-α with overexpression and dominant negative studies implying a strong level of cooperation and interplay between these factors. Overall, our data link cytokine-mediated alterations in cPLA2γ gene expression with allergic asthma and outline a complex regulatory mechanism

Caribbean Corals in Crisis: Record Thermal Stress, Bleaching, and Mortality in 2005

BACKGROUND The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.This work was partially supported by salaries from the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program to the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program authors. NOAA provided funding to Caribbean ReefCheck investigators to undertake surveys of bleaching and mortality. Otherwise, no funding from outside authors' institutions was necessary for the undertaking of this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

US Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter 2017: Community Report

This white paper summarizes the workshop "U.S. Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter" held at University of Maryland on March 23-25, 2017.Comment: 102 pages + reference