What has happened to growth in Latin America

Growth in the first post-reform decade in Latin America has been disappointing, largely because of a severe slowdown after 1995 in the countries in South America. Per capita income grew at only .9% per year between 1995 and 1999 compared to 2.7% for 1950-80 and 1.5% for the nineties as a whole. What has gone wrong? The paper finds that neither falling investment, volatile capital inflows nor the implementation of structural reforms is the problem. Indeed relative growth performance across countries is positively related to the amount of reform they adopted. Instead the problem seems to relate to a significant reduction in the growth rate of exports since 1997. Mexico, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic did well, but every country in South America has suffered a reduction in exports with the exception of Colombia where they were constant. Partly that is because the countries that are the main markets for Latin exports are not growing as fast as they were, but South America is also losing market share in those countries. The basic assumption of the new reform growth model is that exports will be a significant engine of growth. It does not seem to be working out that way for South America. It is not clear what the cause of the export slowdown is, but no export-led growth strategy is going to work if it cannot produce an export growth rate higher than 2.3% per year.Growth economics. ,Income. ,Latin America Economic conditions. ,Exports Latin America. ,TMD ,

Distribution and growth in Latin America in an era of structural reform

The first section of this paper reviews the most recent evidence on inequality in 18 Latin American countries and shows that in all but four the changes in inequality over the 1990s were small and nsignificant. The distribution depends on the ownership and rate of return on assets, particularly human capital. In the short run changes in these two variables tend to be offsetting-growth widens skill-differentials which is regressive, but advances in education are progressive. The two effects roughly cancel each other out absent severe macroeconomic shocks or revolutionary changes in the rules of the game. The paper then summarizes various recent papers as well as the author's recent work on the impact of structural reforms on inequality. That work shows that the recent reforms have had a negative but small regressive impact on inequality mainly because many of the individual reforms had offsetting effects. Trade and tax reform have been unambiguously regressive, but opening up the capital account is progressive. Finally, the paper presents evidence of a significant slowdown in the growth rate and argues that given this fact and the insensitivity of the distribution to feasible policy measures, the main problem facing the region at present is not how to improve the distribution but rather how the increase the growth rate.Economic development Latin America. ,Equality Latin America. ,Income distribution. ,Poverty. ,TMD ,

Crescimento, política salarial e desigualdade: o Brasil durante a década de 1960

O leitor bem pode indagar porque nos propomos novamente a ab rir o debate acerca dos determinantes da distribuição de renda durante a década de 1960. Primeiro, julgamos dispor de uma maneira melhor de esclarecer os efeitos distributivos do crescimento macroeconômico e da política repressiva de salário do que a utilizada no debate original. Segundo, queremos discutir a interpretação em termos de bem-estar a respeito das mudanças na desigualdade avaliada numa economia em crescimento. Não há dúvida de que a renda se tomou mais desigualmente distribuída, no Brasil, durante os anos 60. Isso significa que a distribuição em 1970 foi pior que na década de 1960, num sentido de bem-estar social. Boa parte da discussão do modelo brasileiro ignora essa exigência e simplesmente equipara um aumento na desigualdade a uma piora na distribuição. Tais conclusões normativas são baseadas implicitamente em funções de bem-estar social particulares. Funções alternativas levam a conclusões normativas muito diferentes, dado o mesmo conjunto de fatos objetivos. P ara entender realmente as implicações do “modelo brasileiro” em termos de bem-estar sociais, os economistas terão que considerar explicitamente a composição da função de bem-estar social, embora qualquer função desse tipo seja subjetiva. A parte final de nosso trabalho contêm algumas modestas incursões nesta direção

An L Band Spectrum of the Coldest Brown Dwarf

The coldest brown dwarf, WISE 0855, is the closest known planetary-mass, free-floating object and has a temperature nearly as cold as the solar system gas giants. Like Jupiter, it is predicted to have an atmosphere rich in methane, water, and ammonia, with clouds of volatile ices. WISE 0855 is faint at near-infrared wavelengths and emits almost all its energy in the mid-infrared. Skemer et al. 2016 presented a spectrum of WISE 0855 from 4.5-5.1 micron (M band), revealing water vapor features. Here, we present a spectrum of WISE 0855 in L band, from 3.4-4.14 micron. We present a set of atmosphere models that include a range of compositions (metallicities and C/O ratios) and water ice clouds. Methane absorption is clearly present in the spectrum. The mid-infrared color can be better matched with a methane abundance that is depleted relative to solar abundance. We find that there is evidence for water ice clouds in the M band spectrum, and we find a lack of phosphine spectral features in both the L and M band spectra. We suggest that a deep continuum opacity source may be obscuring the near-infrared flux, possibly a deep phosphorous-bearing cloud, ammonium dihyrogen phosphate. Observations of WISE 0855 provide critical constraints for cold planetary atmospheres, bridging the temperature range between the long-studied solar system planets and accessible exoplanets. JWST will soon revolutionize our understanding of cold brown dwarfs with high-precision spectroscopy across the infrared, allowing us to study their compositions and cloud properties, and to infer their atmospheric dynamics and formation processes.Comment: 19 pages, 21 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Hepatic angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and in patients with fatal COVID-19

BACKGROUND Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), characterised by hepatic lipid accumulation, causes inflammation and oxidative stress accompanied by cell damage and fibrosis. Liver injury (LI) is also frequently reported in patients hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while preexisting MASLD increases the risk of LI and the development of COVID-19associated cholangiopathy. Mechanisms of injury at the cellular level remain unclear, but it may be significant that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which causes COVID-19, uses angiotensin-converting expression enzyme 2 (ACE2), a key regulator of the ‘anti-inflammatory’ arm of the renin-angiotensin system, for viral attachment and host cell invasion. AIM To determine if hepatic ACE2 levels are altered during progression of MASLD and in patients who died with severe COVID-19. METHODS ACE2 protein levels and localisation, and histological fibrosis and lipid droplet accumulation as markers of MASLD were determined in formalin-fixed liver tissue sections across the MASLD pathological spectrum (isolated hepatocellular steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) +/- fibrosis, end-stage cirrhosis) and in post-mortem tissues from patients who had died with severe COVID-19, using ACE2 immunohistochemistry and haematoxylin and eosin and picrosirius red staining of total collagen and lipid droplet areas, followed by quantification using machine learning-based image pixel classifiers. RESULTS ACE2 staining is primarily intracellular and concentrated in the cytoplasm of centrilobular hepatocytes and apical membranes of bile duct cholangiocytes. Strikingly, ACE2 protein levels are elevated in non-fibrotic MASH compared to healthy controls but not in the progression to MASH with fibrosis and in cirrhosis. ACE2 protein levels and histological fibrosis are not associated, but ACE2 and liver lipid droplet content are significantly correlated across the MASLD spectrum. Hepatic ACE2 levels are also increased in COVID-19 patients, especially those showing evidence of LI, but are not correlated with the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the liver. However, there is a clear association between the hepatic lipid droplet content and the presence of the virus, suggesting a possible functional link. CONCLUSION Hepatic ACE2 levels were elevated in nonfibrotic MASH and COVID-19 patients with LI, while lipid accumulation may promote intra-hepatic SARS-CoV-2 replication, accelerating MASLD progression and COVID-19-mediated liver damage.</p

Trends in weight gain recorded in English primary care before and during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic: An observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic-δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data. CONCLUSIONS: We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning

An L Band Spectrum of the Coldest Brown Dwarf

The coldest brown dwarf, WISE 0855, is the closest known planetary-mass, free-floating object and has a temperature nearly as cold as the solar system gas giants. Like Jupiter, it is predicted to have an atmosphere rich in methane, water, and ammonia, with clouds of volatile ices. WISE 0855 is faint at near-infrared wavelengths and emits almost all its energy in the mid-infrared. Skemer et al. (2016) presented a spectrum of WISE 0855 from 4.5–5.1 µm (M band), revealing water vapor features. Here, we present a spectrum of WISE 0855 in L band, from 3.4–4.14 µm. We present a set of atmosphere models that include a range of compositions (metallicities and C/O ratios) and water ice clouds. Methane absorption is clearly present in the spectrum. The mid-infrared color can be better matched with a methane abundance that is depleted relative to solar abundance. We find that there is evidence for water ice clouds in the M band spectrum, and we find a lack of phosphine spectral features in both the L and M band spectra. We suggest that a deep continuum opacity source may be obscuring the near-infrared flux, possibly a deep phosphorous-bearing cloud, ammonium dihyrogen phosphate. Observations of WISE 0855 provide critical constraints for cold planetary atmospheres, bridging the temperature range between the long-studied solar system planets and accessible exoplanets. JWST will soon revolutionize our understanding of cold brown dwarfs with high-precision spectroscopy across the infrared, allowing us to study their compositions and cloud properties, and to infer their atmospheric dynamics and formation processes

Patient outcomes after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and implications for follow-up:results from a prospective UK cohort

The longer-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection are uncertain. Consecutive patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were prospectively recruited to this observational study (n=163). At 8–12 weeks postadmission, survivors were invited to a systematic clinical follow-up. Of 131 participants, 110 attended the follow-up clinic. Most (74%) had persistent symptoms (notably breathlessness and excessive fatigue) and limitations in reported physical ability. However, clinically significant abnormalities in chest radiograph, exercise tests, blood tests and spirometry were less frequent (35%), especially in patients not requiring supplementary oxygen during their acute infection (7%). Results suggest that a holistic approach focusing on rehabilitation and general well-being is paramount

Physical Parameters of the Multiplanet Systems HD 106315 and GJ 9827

HD 106315 and GJ 9827 are two bright, nearby stars that host multiple super-Earths and sub-Neptunes discovered by K2 that are well suited for atmospheric characterization. We refined the planets' ephemerides through Spitzer transits, enabling accurate transit prediction required for future atmospheric characterization through transmission spectroscopy. Through a multiyear high-cadence observing campaign with Keck/High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer and Magellan/Planet Finder Spectrograph, we improved the planets' mass measurements in anticipation of Hubble Space Telescope transmission spectroscopy. For GJ 9827, we modeled activity-induced radial velocity signals with a Gaussian process informed by the Calcium II H&K lines in order to more accurately model the effect of stellar noise on our data. We measured planet masses of M_b = 4.87 ± 0.37 M_⊕, M_c = 1.92 ± 0.49 M_⊕, and M_d = 3.42 ± 0.62 M_⊕. For HD 106315, we found that such activity radial velocity decorrelation was not effective due to the reduced presence of spots and speculate that this may extend to other hot stars as well (T_(eff) > 6200 K). We measured planet masses of M_b = 10.5 ± 3.1 M_⊕ and M_c = 12.0 ± 3.8 M_⊕. We investigated all of the planets' compositions through comparison of their masses and radii to a range of interior models. GJ 9827 b and GJ 9827 c are both consistent with a 50/50 rock-iron composition, GJ 9827 d and HD 106315 b both require additional volatiles and are consistent with moderate amounts of water or hydrogen/helium, and HD 106315 c is consistent with a ~10% hydrogen/helium envelope surrounding an Earth-like rock and iron core