Systems engineering studies of lunar base construction

Many ingenious concepts have been proposed for lunar base construction, but few systematic studies exist which relate time-consistent lunar base construction technologies and the choice of lunar base approach with the long-term SEI objectives - i.e., lunar indigenous base construction and Mars Exploration equipment development. To fill this gap, CSC has taken a two-pronged approach. First, the Center undertook basic geotechnical investigations of lunar soil, fabrication of a scale prototype of a lunar construction crane, a multi-robot construction team laboratory experiment, and a preliminary design of lunar base structures. Second, during Jun. and Jul. 1991 two lunar base construction systems engineering studies were accomplished - a 'near term lunar base' study, and a 'far-term lunar base' study. The goals of these studies were to define the major lunar base construction research problems in consistent technology/construction frameworks, and to define design requirements for construction equipment such as a lunar crane and a regolith mover. The 'near-term lunar base' study examined three different construction concepts for a lunar base comprised of pre-fabricated, pre-tested, Space Station Freedom-type modules, which would be covered with regolith shielding. Concept A used a lunar crane for unloading and transportation; concept B, a winch and cart; and concept C, a walker to move the modules from the landing site to the base site and assemble them. To evaluate the merits of each approach, calculations were made of mass efficiency measure, source mass, reliability, far-term base mass, Mars base mass, and base assembly time. The model thus established was also used to define the requirements for crane speed and regolith mover m(sup 3)/sec rates. A major problem addressed is how to 'mine' the regolith and stack it over the habitats as shielding. To identify when the cost of using indigenous lunar materials to construct the base exceeds the cost of development and delivery of the equipment for processing lunar materials, a study of construction of a candidate sintered regolith 'far term lunar base' was undertaken. A technique was devised for casting slabs of sintered (basaltic) regolith and assembling these into a hemispherical (or geodesic) dome. The major problem occurs with the inner liner. At 14.7 psi and 20 percent oxygen internal atmosphere, the entire structure is in tension, even with the regolith load. Also, another study has indicated that at 14.7 psi major resupply of air will be needed because of leakage, and astronauts may have to engage in extensive pre-breathing and post-breathing for extravehicular activity (EVA) tasks, thus detracting from useful mission work time. An alternative is to operate part of the base at, say, 5 psi and 70 percent oxygen, or to equip the astronauts with hard suits at 8.3 psi or greater. All of these choices directly influence base design and construction techniques

Systems engineering studies of on-orbit assembly operation

While the practice of construction has a long history, the underlying theory of construction is relatively young. Very little has been documented as to techniques of logistic support, construction planning, construction scheduling, construction testing, and inspection. The lack of 'systems approaches' to construction processes is certainly one of the most serious roadblocks to the construction of space structures. System engineering research efforts at CSC are aimed at developing concepts and tools which contribute to a systems theory of space construction. The research is also aimed at providing means for trade-offs of design parameters for other research areas in CSC. Systems engineering activity at CSC has divided space construction into the areas of orbital assembly, lunar base construction, interplanetary transport vehicle construction, and Mars base construction. A brief summary of recent results is given. Several models for 'launch-on-time' were developed. Launch-on-time is a critical concept to the assembly of such Earth-orbiting structures as the Space Station Freedom, and to planetary orbiters such as the Mars transfer vehicle. CSC has developed a launch vehicle selection model which uses linear programming to find optimal combinations of launch vehicles of various sizes (Atlas, Titan, Shuttles, HLLV's) to support SEI missions. Recently, the Center developed a cost trade-off model for studying on orbit assembly logistics. With this model it was determined that the most effective size of the HLLV would be in the range of 120 to 200 metric tons to LEO, which is consistent with the choices of General Stafford's Synthesis Group Report. A second-generation Dynamic Construction Activities Model ('DYCAM') process model has been under development, based on our past results in interruptability and our initial DYCAM model. This second-generation model is built on the paradigm of knowledge-based expert systems. It is aimed at providing answers to two questions: (1) what are some necessary or sufficient conditions for judging conceptual designs of spacecraft?, and (2) can a methodology be formulated such that these conditions may be used to provide computer-aided tools for evaluating conceptual designs and planning for space assembly sequences? Early simulation results indicate that the DYCAM model has a clear ability to emulate and simulate human orbital construction processes

Modeling, Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Spacecraft Air Contaminants

Control of air contaminants is a crucial factor in the safety considerations of crewed space flight. Indoor air quality needs to be closely monitored during long range missions such as a Mars mission, and also on large complex space structures such as the International Space Station. This work mainly pertains to the detection and simulation of air contaminants in the space station, though much of the work is easily extended to buildings, and issues of ventilation systems. Here we propose a method with which to track the presence of contaminants using an accurate physical model, and also develop a robust procedure that would raise alarms when certain tolerance levels are exceeded. A part of this research concerns the modeling of air flow inside a spacecraft, and the consequent dispersal pattern of contaminants. Our objective is to also monitor the contaminants on-line, so we develop a state estimation procedure that makes use of the measurements from a sensor system and determines an optimal estimate of the contamination in the system as a function of time and space. The real-time optimal estimates in turn are used to detect faults in the system and also offer diagnoses as to their sources. This work is concerned with the monitoring of air contaminants aboard future generation spacecraft and seeks to satisfy NASA's requirements as outlined in their Strategic Plan document (Technology Development Requirements, 1996)

Modeling, Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Spacecraft Air Contaminants

Progress and results in the development of an integrated air quality modeling, monitoring, fault detection, and isolation system are presented. The focus was on development of distributed models of the air contaminants transport, the study of air quality monitoring techniques based on the model of transport process and on-line contaminant concentration measurements, and sensor placement. Different approaches to the modeling of spacecraft air contamination are discussed, and a three-dimensional distributed parameter air contaminant dispersion model applicable to both laminar and turbulent transport is proposed. A two-dimensional approximation of a full scale transport model is also proposed based on the spatial averaging of the three dimensional model over the least important space coordinate. A computer implementation of the transport model is considered and a detailed development of two- and three-dimensional models illustrated by contaminant transport simulation results is presented. The use of a well established Kalman filtering approach is suggested as a method for generating on-line contaminant concentration estimates based on both real time measurements and the model of contaminant transport process. It is shown that high computational requirements of the traditional Kalman filter can render difficult its real-time implementation for high-dimensional transport model and a novel implicit Kalman filtering algorithm is proposed which is shown to lead to an order of magnitude faster computer implementation in the case of air quality monitoring

A History of Discrete Event Simulation Programming Languages

The history of simulation programming languages is organized as a progression in periods of similar developments. The five periods, spanning 1955-1986, are labeled: The Period of Search (1955-1960); The Advent (1961-1965); The Formative Period (1966-1970); The Expansional Period (1971-1978); and The Period of Consolidation and Regeneration (1979-1986). The focus is on recognizing the people and places that have made important contributions in addition to the nature of the contribution. A balance between comprehensive and in-depth treatment has been reached by providing more detailed description of those languages which have or have had major use. Over 30 languages are mentioned, and numerous variations are described in the major contributors. A concluding summary notes the concepts and techniques either originating with simulation programming languages or given significant visibility by them

Estimation of AUC or Partial AUC Under Test-Result-Dependent Sampling

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and partial area under the ROC curve (pAUC) are summary measures used to assess the accuracy of a biomarker in discriminating true disease status. The standard sampling approach used in biomarker validation studies is often inefficient and costly, especially when ascertaining the true disease status is costly and invasive. To improve efficiency and reduce the cost of biomarker validation studies, we consider a test-result-dependent sampling (TDS) scheme, in which subject selection for determining the disease state is dependent on the result of a biomarker assay. We first estimate the test-result distribution using data arising from the TDS design. With the estimated empirical test-result distribution, we propose consistent nonparametric estimators for AUC and pAUC and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimators have good finite sample properties and that the TDS design yields more efficient AUC and pAUC estimates than a simple random sampling (SRS) design. A data example based on an ongoing cancer clinical trial is provided to illustrate the TDS design and the proposed estimators. This work can find broad applications in design and analysis of biomarker validation studies