Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

Abstract. An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions). Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate) for the case study of Mignone River are presented

Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data

Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms

IDF relationships for short duration rainfall

The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships bound rainfall intensity to duration and return period. These relationships are commonly used as an input in design of many hydraulic structures and drainage systems. Empirical IDF are estimated on the basis of recorded maximum annual precipitation of given durations, often ranging from 1 h to 24 h. For shorter durations, extrapolations are applied. In this paper, maximum annual precipitation for durations shorter than 1 h (namely, 30 min and 10 min) are evaluated using a rainfall disaggregation model and then used for the evaluation of the IDF relationship. A comparison of values obtained with the extrapolated values is then performed, and the results are discussed. Keywords: intensity-duration-frequency curves, rainfall disaggregation, entropy. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC

An entropy approach for evaluating the maximum information content achievable by an urban rainfall network

Hydrological models are the basis of operational flood-forecasting systems. The accuracy of these models is strongly dependent on the quality and quantity of the input information represented by rainfall height. Finer space-time rainfall resolution results in more accurate hazard forecasting. In this framework, an optimum raingauge network is essential in predicting flood events. This paper develops an entropy-based approach to evaluate the maximum information content achievable by a rainfall network for different sampling time intervals. The procedure is based on the determination of the coefficients of transferred and nontransferred information and on the relative isoinformation contours. The nontransferred information value achieved by the whole network is strictly dependent on the sampling time intervals considered. An empirical curve is defined, to assess the objective of the research: the nontransferred information value is plotted versus the associated sampling time on a semi-log scale. The curve has a linear trend. In this paper, the methodology is applied to the high-density raingauge network of the urban area of Rome

Soil Conservation Service curve number: how to take into account spatial and temporal variability

The most commonly used method to evaluate rainfall excess, is the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve number model. This method is based on the determination of the CN valuethat is linked with a hydrological soil group, cover type, treatment, hydrologic condition and antecedent runoff condition. To calculate the antecedent runoff condition the standard procedure needs to calculate the rainfall over the entire basin during the five days previous to the beginning of the event in order to simulate and then to use that volume of rainfall to calculate the antecedent moisture condition (AMC). This is necessary in order to obtain the correct curve number value. The value of the modified parameter is then kept constant throughout the whole event. The aim of this work is to evaluate the possibility of improving the curve number method. The various assumptions are focused on modifying those related to rainfall and the determination of an AMC condition and their role in the determination of the value of the curve number parameter. In order to consider the spatial variability we assumed that the rainfall which influences the AMC and the CN value does not account for the rainfall over the entire basin, but for the rainfall within a single cell where the basin domain is discretized. Furthermore, in order to consider the temporal variability of rainfall we assumed that the value of the CN of the single cell is not maintained constant during the whole event, but instead varies throughout it according to the time interval used to define the AMC conditions

Long term discharge simulation through a geomorphological model

Flow duration curve estimation must be performed on the basis of continuous rainfall-runoff simulations. In ungauged basins, a under-parameterised model is needed to reduce the uncertainty of the results. In this paper a geomorphological model based on a width function (WFIUH) was used to simulate low flows in a mean-sized basin in Central Italy. The WFIUH model [9]introduces a new approachto the curvenumber method and was used to evaluate the stream-flow for hourly event representation. The aim of this work is to evaluate the behaviour of the WFIUH model for long term simulation and then to compare the standard curve number approach to the curve number method implemented in the WFIUH model. To predict the behaviour of catchments for a long term, to know the response of catchments in different seasons or in different years, it is necessary to improve the model and to identify a new method for calculating base-flow. To obtain these results, it is necessary to separate base-flow and stream-flow, simulate the two contributions and build a unique series of values that reproduces the answer of the basin to different rainfalls during the year to estimate the low flow during a dry period. The model can also be used in ungauged basins because a unique parameter is used. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC

Interfacing aptamers, nanoparticles and graphene in a hierarchical structure for highly selective detection of biomolecules in OECT devices

In several biomedical applications, the detection of biomarkers demands high sensitivity, selectivity and easy-to-use devices. Organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs) represent a promising class of devices combining a minimal invasiveness and good signal transduction. However, OECTs lack of intrinsic selectivity that should be implemented by specific approaches to make them well suitable for biomedical applications. Here, we report on a biosensor in which selectivity and a high sensitivity are achieved by interfacing, in an OECT architecture, a novel gate electrode based on aptamers, Au nanoparticles and graphene hierarchically organized to optimize the final response. The fabricated biosensor performs state of the art limit of detection monitoring biomolecules, such as thrombin-with a limit of detection in the picomolar range (≤ 5 pM) and a very good selectivity even in presence of supraphysiological concentrations of Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA-1mM). These accomplishments are the final result of the gate hierarchic structure that reduces sterich indrance that could contrast the recognition events and minimizes false positive, because of the low affinity of graphene towards the physiological environment. Since our approach can be easily applied to a large variety of different biomarkers, we envisage a relevant potential for a large series of different biomedical applications

Sorafenib plus long-acting octreotide in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Preliminary results of a multicenter ongoing study

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P-110 Hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients: Final results of the Italian cohort of GIDEON study

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