Banking in the shadows: a comparative study of China and India

YesRecent years have seen the increasing concern for the flourish of shadow banking in China and India. In this paper, we aim to get a better understanding of the differences in trends and investigate the factors leading to the rise of shadow banking in these two major emerging economies. We find that financial exclusion is a common factor leading to the rise of shadow banking in China and India. While financial reform has taken place in India, financial repressive policies still prevail in China. Although several regulatory measures have been adopted in India and China, the size of the shadow banking in these two countries remains underestimated. Thus, streamlining and enhancing data collection is a key priority for both India and China. We also argue that the regulation in both countries should be more activity focused rather than sector or entity based, and it should be at par with banks. As shadow banks provide last mile connectivity and enhance financial inclusion, a balanced approach is required keeping in view both benefits and costs of the shadow banking system

Dutch disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries

We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e. booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial over-optimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena

The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Sri Lanka, in order to examine the validity of the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts unit roots and cointegration, error-correction modelling, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse responses analysis to examine the causal relationship between six macroeconomic variables. Findings – The results indicate that there are both short and long-run causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. These findings refute the validity of the semi-strong version of the efficient market hypothesis for the Sri Lankan share market and have implications for investors, both domestic and international. Originality/value – The paper addresses several methodological weaknesses in relation to unit root and cointegration tests which previous studies in the area of the paper have overlooked. Further, it uses more variables than those used in a previous study using Sri Lankan data

Towards a measure of financial fragility

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks’ probabilities of default and banks’ profits - to a proxy of welfare