Local governments' indebtedness and its impact on real estate prices

In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of public debt on real estate prices and rental prices. We identify shocks to investment credits of self-governed cities in Germany and control for potential benefits such as an increased supply of public goods, which might come in hand with increased indebtedness. Using spatial variation across self-governed cities allows us to estimate this effect. We find that shocks to public debt have a significant negative effect on apartment prices. Rental prices, on the other hand, do not seem to be affected by public debt. Tenants care more about the current and less about the future tax burden.In diesem Papier untersuchen wir den kausalen Effekt öffentlicher Verschuldung auf Immobilienpreise. Hierfür identifizieren wir zuerst Schocks der Investitionskreditposition kreisfreier Städte. Um für potenziell positive Effekte, welche mit einem Anstieg der öffentlichen Verschuldung einhergehen können, zu kontrollieren, nutzen wir den Standort der beobachteten Immobilien. Wir finden einen signifikant negativen Effekt öffentlicher Verschuldung auf Wohnungspreise. Für Wohnungsmieten finden wir keinen signifikanten Einfluss der Verschuldung. Mieten scheinen mehr von der aktuellen als von der zukünftigen Steuerbelastung abzuhängen

Minimum wage: Redistributive or discriminatory policy?

The standard model of optimal minimum wage policy in a perfectly competitive labor market suggests that a positive tax rate on minimum wage income is Pareto inefficient. However, most countries with a minimum wage exhibit a positive tax rate for minimum wage income. This paper introduces discrimination of individuals that do not contribute to social welfare, typically individuals that do not participate in the political process, into the standard model. If a minimum wage is introduced for discriminatory purposes, a positive tax rate on minimum wage income can be compatible with optimal government policy. In the empirical part, we show that the approval of discrimination against foreigners in the labor market and the presence of a minimum wage are indeed positively correlated

Forecasting House Prices in Germany

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and forecast near-term price developments. Therefore we construct hedonic house price indices based on real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. Then, starting with a naive AR(p) model as a benchmark, we investigate whether VAR and ARDL models using additional macroeconomic information can improve the forecasting performance as measured by the mean squared forecast error (MSFE). While these models reduce the forecast error only slightly, forecast combination approaches enhance the predictive power considerably..House price forecasts; forecast combination; hedonic price index

Monitoring regionaler Immobilienpreise

Immobilien haben sich in Deutschland in den vergangenen Jahren merklich verteuert. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, inwieweit dieser Preisanstieg auf eine nicht nachhaltige Entwicklung zurückgeführt werden muss. Wir betrachten hierfür regionale Immobilienpreise auf Ebene der Arbeitsmärkte, um räumliche Spill Over-Effekte über die administrativen Grenzen hinweg berücksichtigen zu können. Wenngleich die Preissteigerungen teils beachtliche Größenordnung erreicht haben, kann nur für einzelne Arbeitsmarktregionen eine Veränderung des Preisprozesses hin zu einem Prozess mit explosivem Verhalten, welches auf nicht nachhaltige Entwicklungen hindeutet, diagnostiziert werden.In recent years real estate prices in Germany increased considerably. In this paper we analyze whether the recent rise can be justified fundamentally or whether it provides evidence for a price bubble. We do so by testing for a change in the data generating process from a process with a unit root to an explosive one. To take potential spillovers into account we do not restrict our analysis to administrative boundaries but use labor market regions. We find that even though price increases have been substantial over the last seven years, there is no evidence for wide spread excessive speculation in the German real estate market

Monitoring regionaler Immobilienpreise 2014: Preisauftrieb auf breiter Front - aber geringe Gefahr von Blasen

In den vergangenen Jahren sind die Kaufpreise deutscher Immobilien deutlich gestiegen. Allerdings sind die Preissteigerungen sehr heterogen über das Bundesgebiet verteilt. Indizien für übersteigerte Preiserwartungen sind nur für vereinzelte Arbeitsmarktregionen zu finden und die Anzeichen für eine landesweite Immobilienpreisblase daher sehr gering. Dennoch sollten die Preise in verschiedenen Arbeitsmarktregionen genauer beobachtet werden.German real estate prices increased considerably in recent years. However, upward pressure on prices has been heterogeneous across labour market regions. Even though there is some evidence for excessive price expectations in some labour market regions, there is little evidence for the build-up of a countrywide price bubble. Nevertheless, property prices in some labour market regions should be carefully monitored

Discord and Decoherence

In quantum information theory, quantum discord has been proposed as a tool to characterise the presence of "quantum correlations" between the subparts of a given system. Whether a system behaves quantum-mechanically or classically is believed to be impacted by the phenomenon of decoherence, which originates from the unavoidable interaction between this system and an environment. Generically, decoherence is associated with a decrease of the state purity, i.e. a transition from a pure to a mixed state. In this paper, we investigate how quantum discord is modified by this quantum-to-classical transition. This study is carried out on systems described by quadratic Hamiltonians and Gaussian states, with generalised squeezing parameters. A generic parametrisation is also introduced to describe the way the system is partitioned into two subsystems. We find that the evolution of quantum discord in presence of an environment is a competition between the growth of the squeezing amplitude and the decrease of the state purity. In phase space, this corresponds to whether the semi-minor axis of the Wigner ellipse increases or decreases, which has a clear geometrical interpretation. Finally, these considerations are applied to primordial cosmological perturbations, thus allowing us to investigate how large-scale structures in our universe, which are believed to arise from quantum fluctuations, can exhibit classical properties.Comment: 35 pages without appendices (total 57 pages), 10 figures, matches published version in JCAP with added referenc

Documentation of German real estate market data: Sample of real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24, 2007-2013

This data report presents a dataset on residential real estate prices in Germany provided by ImmobilienScout24 and introduces real estate price indices of labor market regions. The dataset consists of online adverts of houses and apartments that are available for rent or sale. The dataset complements already existing datasets in two ways: First, it is available almost without any time lag, allowing the analysis of most recent developments. Second, the high market share of ImmobilienScout24 results in a high number of observations, which gives the opportunity to use the data for analyses on a small regional scale

Ultrasonic Blood Flow Meter with Doppler Velocimetry

B.A. (Bachelor of Arts