Association of maternal prenatal selenium concentration and preterm birth: A multicountry meta-analysis

Background: Selenium (Se), an essential trace mineral, has been implicated in preterm birth (PTB). We aimed to determine the association of maternal Se concentrations during pregnancy with PTB risk and gestational duration in a large number of samples collected from diverse populations.Methods: Gestational duration data and maternal plasma or serum samples of 9946 singleton live births were obtained from 17 geographically diverse study cohorts. Maternal Se concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analysis. The associations between maternal Se with PTB and gestational duration were analysed using logistic and linear regressions. The results were then combined using fixed-effect and random-effect meta-analysis.Findings: In all study samples, the Se concentrations followed a normal distribution with a mean of 93.8 ng/mL (SD: 28.5 ng/mL) but varied substantially across different sites. The fixed-effect meta-analysis across the 17 cohorts showed that Se was significantly associated with PTB and gestational duration with effect size estimates of an OR=0.95 (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.00) for PTB and 0.66 days (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.94) longer gestation per 15 ng/mL increase in Se concentration. However, there was a substantial heterogeneity among study cohorts and the random-effect meta-analysis did not achieve statistical significance. The largest effect sizes were observed in UK (Liverpool) cohort, and most significant associations were observed in samples from Malawi.Interpretation: While our study observed statistically significant associations between maternal Se concentration and PTB at some sites, this did not generalise across the entire cohort. Whether population-specific factors explain the heterogeneity of our findings warrants further investigation. Further evidence is needed to understand the biologic pathways, clinical efficacy and safety, before changes to antenatal nutritional recommendations for Se supplementation are considered

Multiomics characterization of preterm birth in low- and middle-income countries

Importance: Worldwide, preterm birth (PTB) is the single largest cause of deaths in the perinatal and neonatal period and is associated with increased morbidity in young children. The cause of PTB is multifactorial, and the development of generalizable biological models may enable early detection and guide therapeutic studies.Objective: To investigate the ability of transcriptomics and proteomics profiling of plasma and metabolomics analysis of urine to identify early biological measurements associated with PTB.Design, setting, and participants: This diagnostic/prognostic study analyzed plasma and urine samples collected from May 2014 to June 2017 from pregnant women in 5 biorepository cohorts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; ie, Matlab, Bangladesh; Lusaka, Zambia; Sylhet, Bangladesh; Karachi, Pakistan; and Pemba, Tanzania). These cohorts were established to study maternal and fetal outcomes and were supported by the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement and the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth biorepositories. Data were analyzed from December 2018 to July 2019.Exposures: Blood and urine specimens that were collected early during pregnancy (median sampling time of 13.6 weeks of gestation, according to ultrasonography) were processed, stored, and shipped to the laboratories under uniform protocols. Plasma samples were assayed for targeted measurement of proteins and untargeted cell-free ribonucleic acid profiling; urine samples were assayed for metabolites.Main outcomes and measures: The PTB phenotype was defined as the delivery of a live infant before completing 37 weeks of gestation.Results: Of the 81 pregnant women included in this study, 39 had PTBs (48.1%) and 42 had term pregnancies (51.9%) (mean [SD] age of 24.8 [5.3] years). Univariate analysis demonstrated functional biological differences across the 5 cohorts. A cohort-adjusted machine learning algorithm was applied to each biological data set, and then a higher-level machine learning modeling combined the results into a final integrative model. The integrated model was more accurate, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.91) compared with the models derived for each independent biological modality (transcriptomics AUROC, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.61-0.83]; metabolomics AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.47-0.72]; and proteomics AUROC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]). Primary features associated with PTB included an inflammatory module as well as a metabolomic module measured in urine associated with the glutamine and glutamate metabolism and valine, leucine, and isoleucine biosynthesis pathways.Conclusions and relevance: This study found that, in LMICs and high PTB settings, major biological adaptations during term pregnancy follow a generalizable model and the predictive accuracy for PTB was augmented by combining various omics data sets, suggesting that PTB is a condition that manifests within multiple biological systems. These data sets, with machine learning partnerships, may be a key step in developing valuable predictive tests and intervention candidates for preventing PTB

Using AMANHI-ACT cohorts for external validation of Iowa new-born metabolic profiles based models for postnatal gestational age estimation

Background: Globally, 15 million infants are born preterm and another 23.2 million infants are born small for gestational age (SGA). Determining burden of preterm and SGA births, is essential for effective planning, modification of health policies and targeting interventions for reducing these outcomes for which accurate estimation of gestational age (GA) is crucial. Early pregnancy ultrasound measurements, last menstrual period and post-natal neonatal examinations have proven to be not feasible or inaccurate. Proposed algorithms for GA estimation in western populations, based on routine new-born screening, though promising, lack validation in developing country settings. We evaluated the hypothesis that models developed in USA, also predicted GA in cohorts of South Asia (575) and Sub-Saharan Africa (736) with same precision.Methods: Dried heel prick blood spots collected 24-72 hours after birth from 1311 new-borns, were analysed for standard metabolic screen. Regression algorithm based, GA estimates were computed from metabolic data and compared to first trimester ultrasound validated, GA estimates (gold standard).Results: Overall Algorithm (metabolites + birthweight) estimated GA to within an average deviation of 1.5 weeks. The estimated GA was within the gold standard estimate by 1 and 2 weeks for 70.5% and 90.1% new-borns respectively. Inclusion of birthweight in the metabolites model improved discriminatory ability of this method, and showed promise in identifying preterm births. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis estimated an area under curve of 0.86 (conservative bootstrap 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83 to 0.89); P \u3c 0.001) and Youden Index of 0.58 (95% CI = 0.51 to 0.64) with a corresponding sensitivity of 80.7% and specificity of 77.6%.Conclusion: Metabolic gestational age dating offers a novel means for accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMIC settings and help preterm birth surveillance initiatives. Further research should focus on use of machine learning and newer analytic methods broader than conventional metabolic screen analytes, enabling incorporation of region-specific analytes and cord blood metabolic profiles models predicting gestational age accurately

Machine learning guided postnatal gestational age assessment using new-born screening metabolomic data in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Babies born early and/or small for gestational age in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute substantially to global neonatal and infant mortality. Tracking this metric is critical at a population level for informed policy, advocacy, resources allocation and program evaluation and at an individual level for targeted care. Early prenatal ultrasound examination is not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is estimated using new-born assessment, last menstrual period (LMP) recalls and birth weight, which are unreliable. Algorithms in developed settings, using metabolic screen data, provided GA estimates within 1-2 weeks of ultrasonography-based GA. We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms to improve accuracy and applicability of this approach to LMICs settings.Methods: This study uses data from AMANHI-ACT, a prospective pregnancy cohorts in Asia and Africa where early pregnancy ultrasonography estimated GA and birth weight are available and metabolite screening data in a subset of 1318 new-borns were also available. We utilized this opportunity to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest Regressor was used where data was randomly split into model-building and model-testing dataset. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate performance. Bootstrap procedures were used to estimate confidence intervals (CI) for RMSE and MAE. For pre-term birth identification ROC analysis with bootstrap and exact estimation of CI for area under curve (AUC) were performed.Results: Overall model estimated GA had MAE of 5.2 days (95% CI 4.6-6.8), which was similar to performance in SGA, MAE 5.3 days (95% CI 4.6-6.2). GA was correctly estimated to within 1 week for 85.21% (95% CI 72.31-94.65). For preterm birth classification, AUC in ROC analysis was 98.1% (95% CI 96.0-99.0; p \u3c 0.001). This model performed better than Iowa regression, AUC Difference 14.4% (95% CI 5-23.7; p = 0.002).Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms and models applied to metabolomic gestational age dating offer a ladder of opportunity for providing accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMICs settings. These findings also point to an opportunity for investigation of region-specific models, more focused feasible analyte models, and broad untargeted metabolome investigation

Serial population-based serosurveys for COVID-19 in two neighbourhoods of Karachi, Pakistan

Objective: To determine population-based estimates of COVID-19 in a densely populated urban community of Karachi, Pakistan.Methods: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in April, June and August in low- and high-transmission neighborhoods. Participants were randomly selected to provide blood for Elecsys® immunoassay for detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Bayesian regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence after adjusting for the demographic characteristics of each district RESULTS: We enrolled 3005 participants from 623 households. In Phase 2, adjusted seroprevalence was estimated as 8.7% (95% CI 5.1-13.1) and 15.1% (95% CI 9.4 -21.7) in low and high transmission areas respectively, compared to 0.2% (95% CI 0-0.7) and 0.4% (95% CI 0 - 1.3) in Phase 1. In Phase 3, it was 12.8% (95% CI 8.3 - 17.7) and 21.5% (95% CI 15.6-28) in low and high transmission areas, respectively. CRI was 0.31 (95% CI 0.16-0.47) and 0.41(95% CI 0.28-0.52) in low and high transmission neighborhoods respectively in Phase 2. Similar trends were observed in Phase 3. Only 5.4% of participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were symptomatic. IFR was 1.66%, 0.37% and 0.26% in Phases 1, 2 and 3 respectively.Conclusion: Continuing rounds of seroprevalence studies will help us better understand secular trends and extent of infection during the course of the pandemic

Direct maternal morbidity and the risk of pregnancy-related deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: A population-based prospective cohort study in 8 countries

Background: Maternal morbidity occurs several times more frequently than mortality, yet data on morbidity burden and its effect on maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes are limited in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to generate prospective, reliable population-based data on the burden of major direct maternal morbidities in the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods and its association with maternal, foetal, and neonatal death in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findings: This is a prospective cohort study, conducted in 9 research sites in 8 countries of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) to identify pregnancies. Pregnant women who gave consent were include in the study and followed up to birth and 42 days postpartum from 2012 to 2015. We used standard operating procedures, data collection tools, and training to harmonise study implementation across sites. Three home visits during pregnancy and 2 home visits after birth were conducted to collect maternal morbidity information and maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes. We measured blood pressure and proteinuria to define hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and woman\u27s self-report to identify obstetric haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection, and prolonged or obstructed labour. Enrolled women whose pregnancy lasted at least 28 weeks or those who died during pregnancy were included in the analysis. We used meta-analysis to combine site-specific estimates of burden, and regression analysis combining all data from all sites to examine associations between the maternal morbidities and adverse outcomes. Among approximately 735,000 women of reproductive age in the study population, and 133,238 pregnancies during the study period, only 1.6% refused consent. Of these, 114,927 pregnancies had morbidity data collected at least once in both antenatal and in postnatal period, and 114,050 of them were included in the analysis. Overall, 32.7% of included pregnancies had at least one major direct maternal morbidity; South Asia had almost double the burden compared to sub-Saharan Africa (43.9%, 95% CI 27.8% to 60.0% in South Asia; 23.7%, 95% CI 19.8% to 27.6% in sub-Saharan Africa). Antepartum haemorrhage was reported in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.9%) pregnancies and severe postpartum in 1.7% (95% CI 1.2% to 2.2%) pregnancies. Preeclampsia or eclampsia was reported in 1.4% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.0%) pregnancies, and gestational hypertension alone was reported in 7.4% (95% CI 4.6% to 10.1%) pregnancies. Prolonged or obstructed labour was reported in about 11.1% (95% CI 5.4% to 16.8%) pregnancies. Clinical features of late third trimester antepartum infection were present in 9.1% (95% CI 5.6% to 12.6%) pregnancies and those of postpartum infection in 8.6% (95% CI 4.4% to 12.8%) pregnancies. There were 187 pregnancy-related deaths per 100,000 births, 27 stillbirths per 1,000 births, and 28 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births with variation by country and region. Direct maternal morbidities were associated with each of these outcomes.Conclusions: Our findings imply that health programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia must intensify their efforts to identify and treat maternal morbidities, which affected about one-third of all pregnancies and to prevent associated maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths.Trial registration: The study is not a clinical trial

Feasibility, usability and acceptability of paediatric lung ultrasound among healthcare providers and caregivers for the diagnosis of childhood pneumonia in resource-constrained settings: A qualitative study

Objectives: Paediatric pneumonia burden and mortality are highest in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Paediatric lung ultrasound (LUS) has emerged as a promising diagnostic tool for pneumonia in LMIC. Despite a growing evidence base for LUS use in paediatric pneumonia diagnosis, little is known about its potential for successful implementation in LMIC. Our objectives were to evaluate the feasibility, usability and acceptability of LUS in the diagnosis of paediatric pneumonia.Design: Prospective qualitative study using semistructured interviews SETTING: Two referral hospitals in Mozambique and Pakistan PARTICIPANTS: A total of 21 healthcare providers (HCPs) and 20 caregivers were enrolled.Results: HCPs highlighted themes of limited resource availability for the feasibility of LUS implementation, including perceived high cost of equipment, maintenance demands, time constraints and limited trained staff. HCPs emphasised the importance of policymaker support and caregiver acceptance for long-term success. HCP perspectives of usability highlighted ease of use and integration into existing workflow. HCPs and caregivers had positive attitudes towards LUS with few exceptions. Both HCPs and caregivers emphasised the potential for rapid, improved diagnosis of paediatric respiratory conditions using LUS.Conclusions: This was the first study to evaluate HCP and caregiver perspectives of paediatric LUS through qualitative analysis. Critical components impacting feasibility, usability and acceptability of LUS for paediatric pneumonia diagnosis in LMIC were identified for initial deployment. Future research should explore LUS sustainability, with a particular focus on quality control, device maintenance and functionality and adoption of the new technology within the health system. This study highlights the need to engage both users and recipients of new technology early in order to adapt future interventions to the local context for successful implementation.Trial registration number: NCT03187067

Serial population-based serosurveys for COVID-19 in two neighbourhoods of Karachi, Pakistan

Objective: To determine population-based estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely populated urban community of Karachi, Pakistan. Methods: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in April, June and August 2020 in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods. Participants were selected at random to provide blood for Elecsys immunoassay for detection of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 antibodies. A Bayesian regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence after adjusting for the demographic characteristics of each district. Results: In total, 3005 participants from 623 households were enrolled in this study. In Phase 2, adjusted seroprevalence was estimated as 8.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-13.1] and 15.1% (95% CI 9.4-21.7) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively, compared with 0.2% (95% CI 0-0.7) and 0.4% (95% CI 0-1.3) in Phase 1. In Phase 3, it was 12.8% (95% CI 8.3-17.7) and 21.5% (95% CI 15.6-28) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively. The conditional risk of infection was 0.31 (95% CI 0.16-0.47) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.28-0.52) in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods, respectively, in Phase 2. Similar trends were observed in Phase 3. Only 5.4% of participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were symptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 1.66%, 0.37% and 0.26% in Phases 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Conclusion: Continuing rounds of seroprevalence studies will help to improve understanding of secular trends and the extent of infection during the course of the pandemic. &nbsp;</p

Machine learning prediction of gestational age from metabolic screening markers resistant to ambient temperature transportation: Facilitating use of this technology in low resource settings of South Asia and East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of gestational age is critical for guiding preterm neonatal care. In the last decade, metabolic gestational dating approaches emerged in response to a global health need; because in most of the developing world, accurate antenatal gestational age estimates are not feasible. These methods initially developed in North America have now been externally validated in two studies in developing countries, however, require shipment of samples at sub-zero temperature. METHODS: A subset of 330 pairs of heel prick dried blood spot samples were shipped on dry ice and in ambient temperature from field sites in Tanzania, Bangladesh and Pakistan to laboratory in Iowa (USA). We evaluated impact on recovery of analytes of shipment temperature, developed and evaluated models for predicting gestational age using a limited set of metabolic screening analytes after excluding 17 analytes that were impacted by shipment conditions of a total of 44 analytes. RESULTS: With the machine learning model using all the analytes, samples shipped in dry ice yielded a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.19 weeks compared to 1.58 weeks for samples shipped in ambient temperature. Out of the 44 screening analytes, recovery of 17 analytes was significantly different between the two shipment methods and these were excluded from further machine learning model development. The final model, restricted to stable analytes provided a RMSE of 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.37) weeks for samples shipped on dry ice and RMSE of 1.28 (95% CI = 1.15-1.39) for samples shipped at ambient temperature. Analysis for discriminating preterm births (gestational age <37 weeks), yielded an area under curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI = 0.71-0.81) for samples shipped on dry ice and AUC of 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67-0.78) for samples shipped in ambient temperature. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we demonstrate that machine learning algorithms developed using a sub-set of newborn screening analytes which are not sensitive to shipment at ambient temperature, can accurately provide estimates of gestational age comparable to those from published regression models from North America using all analytes. If validated in larger samples especially with more newborns <34 weeks, this technology could substantially facilitate implementation in LMICs