The Granger-Causality between Transportation and GDP: A Panel Data Approach

This study investigates the Granger-causality relationship between real per capita GDP and transportation of EU-15 countries using a panel data set covering the period 1970-2008. Our findings indicate that the dominant type of Granger-causality is bidirectional. Accordingly, we conclude that care must be paid in defining the dependent and independent variables when studying the relationship between transportation and income. Instances of one-way or no Granger-causality were found to correspond with countries with the lowest income per capita ranks in 1970 and/or in 2008, including Portugal, Greece and Italy. We speculate that bi-directional Granger causality between income and transportation is observed only after an economy has completed its transition in terms of economic development.Granger-causality, Transportation, Income

ABD’de ulaşım hizmetleri, finansal piyasa ve endüstriyel üretim: Özyinelemeli nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular

This paper examines the relationship between Transportation Services Index (TSI), Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (DJT), and Industrial Production Index (IND) for the United States of America by using monthly data in the period from January 2000 to March 2019. The long-run nexus is demonstrated through the cointegration test and dynamic cointegrating regression (Dynamic OLS), both with structural breaks. The results show that the long-run relations proved by both tests from IND to TSI, IND to DJT, and two-sided between DJT and TSI. More importantly, the Granger-causality relationship is revealed with the forward, rolling, and recursive evolving window algorithms. This is the first study in the literature investigating the causality ties in transportation measures using the novel econometric methodology, following the algorithms. The rolling and recursive causality results detect bi-directional causality between IND and TSI, IND and DJT, and TSI and DJT. Then we come up with some suggestions that the transportation institutions should modulate the transportation sector's financial structure and intensify to adjust industry structures within transportation mobility before, during, and after recessionary periods.Bu makale, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri için Ulaşım Hizmetleri Endeksi (TSI), Dow Jones Ulaşım Ortalama Endeksi (DJT) ve Endüstriyel Üretim Endeksi (IND) arasındaki ilişkiyi Ocak 2000'den Mart 2019'a kadar olan dönemdeki aylık verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Uzun dönemli bağ, her ikisi de yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik eşbütünleşme regresyonu (Dinamik OLS) ile gösterilmektedir. Sonuçlar, uzun dönemli ilişkilerin IND'den TSI'ye, IND'den DJT'ye ve DJT ile TSI arasında iki yönlü testlerle kanıtlandığını göstermektedir. Daha da önemlisi, Granger-nedensellik ilişkisi ileri, yuvarlanan ve özyinelemeli pencere algoritmalarıyla ortaya çıkar. Bu, algoritmaları takip ederek yeni ekonometrik metodolojiyi kullanarak ulaşım ölçülerindeki nedensellik bağlarını araştıran literatürdeki ilk çalışmadır. Yuvarlanan ve özyinelemeli nedensellik sonuçları, IND ile TSI, IND ve DJT ve TSI ve DJT arasındaki iki yönlü nedenselliği tespit eder. Ardından ulaşım kuruluşlarının, ulaşım sektörünün finansal yapısını modifiye etmesi ve durgunluk dönemlerinden önce, sırasında ve sonrasında ulaşım hareketliliği içinde endüstri yapılarını yeniden düzenlemeye yoğunlaşması gerektiği yönünde bazı öneriler getirmekteyi

Perceptions of Transportation Services and Food Indexes in the US: An Investigation of Dynamic Connectedness

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of and connectedness between transportation measures and measures related to the food industry as a pioneering study. This study uses monthly time-series data for the research exercise, including the United States from January 2000 until October 2021. The results might indicate that the connectedness between transportation and food measures is significant and worthy. In this work, it is going to be evaluated that the determination of the linkage between transportation measures and food measures, and the nature of connectedness parameters may have an important policy implication for policymakers, actors in the transportation and food sectors. The strong tendency to show a significant relationship running between variables and spillover should indicate the potentially important role of transportation in stimulating the food industry and vice versa